The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Nolan McLean (R) $9,300 New York Mets (-169) vs. Detroit Tigers
This is the third game of the Tigers-Mets series in New York, with Detroit scoring just two runs in each of the first two contests. That’s a pretty good sign for McLean, as he’s probably the team’s best starting pitcher, even with Freddy Peralta being their “ace” on paper.
McLean made his MLB debut last season, throwing 48 innings over eight starts with a 2.06 ERA and a strikeout rate above 30%. This season, he’s thrown 45.1 innings over eight starts, with a 2.78 ERA and a 32.6% strikeout rate. While his ERA has technically gone up, he was probably a bit lucky in 2025, as his underlying ERA numbers are all lower this season than last.
While Detroit has an above-average offense both overall and against right-handed pitching in theory, they’ve been pretty bad over the last three series. They’ve been held to three or fewer runs in six of their last eight, with just one win in that span. While slumps happen over the course of a long MLB season, something has seemed off with the Tigers since losing Tarik Skubal to a left elbow injury.
At worst, this is a roughly neutral matchup for one of the game’s best pitchers. At best, an exciting young starter is catching a team that’s been phoning it in recently at the perfect time. Either way, he has a considerable lead in median and ceiling projections while projecting for nearly 50% ownership. I’m happy to eat the chalk, though, given the lack of other options anywhere near his caliber.
MLB DFS Value Pick
Carmen Mlodzinski (R) $6,300 Pittsburgh Pirates (-171) vs. Colorado Rockies
The only pitcher with a better Pts/Sal projection than McLean is the Pirates’ Carmen Mlodzinski, who is slated to appear as the long reliever following the Pirates’ use of an opener against the Rockies. Mlodzinski has been the starter in seven of his eight outings this season and lasted six innings the last time he pitched behind an opener, so I’m not worried about his ability to eat innings.
Appearing after an opener also has some benefits. Since the starting pitcher (and only the starting pitcher) is required to go five innings to be eligible for a win, Mlodzinski could come in with a lead and earn the four-point bonus, or exit after 4 innings and be eligible, etc. At his salary and with Pittsburgh as a solid favorite, that could be fairly impactful.
Mlodzinski has a 4.50 ERA on the season but a 2.83 FIP/3.45 xFIP, which suggests he’s due for some positive regression. More importantly, he’s facing the Rockies at home, which means a relatively bad offense (27th in wRC+ overall) is getting a massive downgrade from their home park in terms of park factors.
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MLB DFS GPP Picks
Chase Burns (R) $9,800 Cincinnati Reds (-160) vs. Washington Nationals
Burns is the “pay up to be contrarian” GPP pivot from McLean today, though his ownership projection is still fairly high. He has a 2.11 ERA and 26.1% strikeout rate this season in a virtually identical matchup – Washington ranks 14th in wRC+ against righties, Detroit 13th. The bull case for Burns is that his 14.6% swinging strike rate is well above McLean’s, so he’s due for some positive regression in that department, while McLean’s rate suggests he’s been a bit lucky. Of course, you could probably find the salary to play them both, but it’s tight.
Chase Dollander (R) $6,500 Colorado Rockies (+144) at Pittsburgh Pirates
The Rockies’ first-round pick in 2023 is doing something extremely impressive so far this season – posting good numbers as a Rockies pitcher. He typically comes in following an opener but should be the true starter today. Over his last five outings, he’s thrown 29.1 innings while allowing just 9 earned runs, and six of those were in a home start against the Braves. The Pirates are a much easier matchup in a much better pitcher’s park, so I’m pretty optimistic given his salary.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model when generated by rating using our tournament model belongs to the Seattle Mariners:
Six of the 14 teams on Thursday’s slate have totals between 4.5 and 4.9 runs, so getting the best stack today is something of a challenge. However, the Mariners make things easy by being extremely cheap and potentially allowing you to play two expensive pitchers or the best hitters from other teams.
The reason behind their price point is something I often mention in this space. Seattle’s T-Mobile Park is essentially the only real “pitcher’s park” in baseball anymore, as it cuts offensive production by about eight percent. The Mariners offense thus has lower production, since half of their games are played in adverse conditions.
Their pricing is thus based on their average production, which is considerably higher on the road and lower at home. Tonight they’re in Houston, a slightly hitter-friendly park, and against Mike Burrows ($7,200), who brings an ERA over five to the game. This stack is about $3,000 cheaper, making them an obvious option tonight.
Not interested in messing around with optimizer settings? No worries, you can use our MLB DFS Simulations and let it find the best way to control your stacks, exposure, correlations, and more!
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Ivan Herrera C ($4,000) St. Louis Cardinals at Athletics (Jacob Lopez)
For the second time in the past three games, we’ve got the perfect confluence of factors for the Cardinals’ Ivan Herrera. He’s playing in Sacramento, an elite hitter’s park, and facing a left-handed pitcher in Jacob Lopez ($6,000). Herrera has insane splits against lefties, as we can see in PlateIQ:
Like with the Mariners, his price point reflects his average production, which includes at-bats against righties and in much tougher parks. He has the best median and ceiling projections at catcher and is top three among all hitters today.
Nick Kurtz 1B ($5,500) Athletics vs. St. Louis Cardinals (Michael McGreevy)
Part of me is tempted to load up on as many hitters from the Athletics-Cardinals game at home, given the obvious strong park factor and weak pitching on both sides of the ball. The challenge with that is the positional overlap between the top hitters on both teams, which makes it impossible to stack their best hitters even when spending down at pitcher.
I’m making Nick Kurtz a priority, though. Michael McGreevy ($8,000) has noticeably worse numbers against left-handed hitting, and his xERA is about three runs higher than his actual ERA. Kurtz has the best production on the A’s against righties, so it’s all pointing his way. He also leads all hitters in median and ceiling projection.
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Pictured: Nolan McLean
Photo Credit: Imagn
