The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Jacob Misiorowski (R) $10,500 Milwaukee Brewers (-151) vs. San Diego Padres
We’ve got three pitchers on Wednesday priced at $10,000 or above, as well as a handful of cheaper options that project fairly well relative to their price tags. It’s borderline impossible to allocate more than 20K to pitchers, so the majority of builds tonight will feature one of the stud pitchers along with one of the options in the $7,000 range.
The best combination of talent and matchup belongs to Jacob Misiorowski, the Brewers’ young phenom. The 24-year-old had borderline-elite numbers last season as a rookie, with a 31.9% strikeout rate and a 3.40 xERA (though he was unlucky with his actual ERA of 4.36). He’s managed to improve on both counts, with an absurd 39.5% strikeout rate and 2.45 ERA.
Normally this is where I’d say those numbers are unsustainable and he’s been incredibly lucky – except the underlying data backs it up. His strikeout rate is supported by a 17.1% swinging-strike rate and a 99.7 mph average fastball velocity, both best in the league by a wide margin. Plus, all of his ERA indicators are in line with his ERA.
He also has a solid matchup with a Padres team that ranks bottom-third in the league in both wRC+ and strikeout rate. They aren’t a matchup I’m going out of my way to target, but when facing arguably the best DFS pitcher in the game, they aren’t going to scare me away either. Misiorowski leads the slate in median and ceiling projection and is near the top in Pts/Sal.
MLB DFS Value Pick
Christian Scott (R) $7,000 New York Mets (-111) vs. Detroit Tigers
Christian Scott is tied with Griffin Jax ($5,500) for the Pts/Sal lead today. If the additional $1,500 in salary is significant in your lineup, I can see the case for Jax, but Scott brings much more upside, making him worth the additional cost.
It’s not an elite matchup against the Tigers, a top-ten team in wRC+ both overall and against righties. However, “top ten” also means “slightly above average,” so it certainly isn’t a reason to stay away. Scott missed all of the 2025 season due to an injury and opened the season in AAA but seems to have come back better than he was in 2024 and before.
Through three starts/11 innings, he has a 3.27 ERA and a 31.3% strikeout rate. The ERA is impressive given that one of those starts was in Colorado, but that also might explain his high strikeout rate. I wouldn’t expect that to continue against Detroit, but I’m not especially worried about him getting blown up, with the Tigers having a 4.1 run total.
His upside comes down to whether or not he can continue to stretch out, as he’s thrown progressively more pitches in each appearance this season. Scott probably doesn’t kill you either way, but it would be hard for him to be a GPP winner with fewer than five innings. I’m optimistic he gets there and want to buy low on him before he does.
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MLB DFS GPP Picks
Shohei Ohtani (R) $10,700 Los Angeles Dodgers (-250) vs. San Francisco Giants
Ohtani is currently projecting for higher ownership than Misiorowski (and every other pitcher on the slate) despite slightly worse projections and strikeout numbers this season. On the other hand, his ERA is still below 1.0, and he’s averaging more than six innings per start. It’s hard for me to justify eating the chalk and paying an extra $200 when Misiorowski is right there, but I would never tell anyone Ohtani is a bad play.
Framber Valdez (L) $7,200) Detroit Tigers (-107) at New York Mets
Valdez ranks just behind his opponent Scott in Pts/Sal projections, with a virtually identical median and ceiling but a slightly higher price tag. On paper, he has the much better matchup, with the Mets’ wRC+ against lefties a terrible 75 and the Tigers’ wRC+ against righties 105. Valdez’s numbers look scary, with a 4.57 ERA, but most of that was due to allowing ten runs over three innings in his last start but being asked to eat some innings – a problem he solved by getting himself ejected and suspended after a pair of fourth-inning home runs. Take that game out, and his ERA is roughly 3.4, and the suspension means he’s had eight days between starts, so at least he’s well-rested.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model when generated by rating using our tournament model belongs to the Athletics:
It’s nice to see the Athletics getting their shine as the top stack tonight, as I’ve been banging the drum about their absurd home ballpark for the past couple of seasons. The market hasn’t quite adjusted to that fact yet, based on both their salaries and projected ownership when they’re at home.
The bad news tonight is the A’s are on the wrong side of their platoon splits as they take on southpaw Matthew Liberatore ($5,700). The good news is that Liberatore brings a 4.07 ERA and 5.49 xERA into the contest, with the former number very likely to regress due to the difficult conditions. Liberatore’s home ballpark in St. Louis slightly favors pitchers, so he’ll have a very different experience here.
Plus, while the A’s as a whole struggle against lefties, that doesn’t mean every individual hitter does. Langeliers and Rooker specifically have very strong numbers and should be in your plans even without a full stack.
Not interested in messing around with optimizer settings? No worries, you can use our MLB DFS Simulations and let it find the best way to control your stacks, exposure, correlations, and more!
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Brendan Donovan 3B ($3,400) Seattle Mariners at Houston Astros (Lance McCullers)
Donovan seems to stand out as a solid value most days, in part because his performance is a bit down over what we’ve come to expect. He’s a career .281 hitter with a .311 BABIP – this season he’s batting .257 with a .271 BABIP.
It’s probably not a coincidence that this is also his first season in Seattle, the toughest park in baseball for hitters. I’d expect a slight dip in production under those circumstances. Tonight he’s on the road in Houston, a park that’s about 10% better for hitters. He’s also facing Lance McCullers ($6,300), who brings a 7.41 ERA, so things are looking up for the Mariners leadoff hitter.
Lane Thomas OF ($2,200) Kansas City Royals at Chicago White Sox (Noah Schultz)
The only one of Lane Thomas’ numbers that wows you is his price tag: at $2,200, he’s barely above the stone minimum, despite projecting to hit third in the Royals lineup implied for 4.2 runs tonight. That’s enough to justify a punt play in my eyes, especially with the pricey pitching options tonight.
He hasn’t been horrible, though, with an 86 wRC+ that isn’t a ton below the league average. Plus, his wRC+ against lefties is 125, and he gets a beatable one in Noah Schultz ($7,700). The rookie pitcher has an ERA and ERA predictors all in the mid-fours, so it’s a good time to take a flier on Royals bats.
JJ Weatherholt 2B ($5,200) St. Louis Cardinals at Athletics (J.T. Ginn)
The Cardinals also get the benefit of playing in Sacramento tonight, so I went hunting through Plate IQ to try to find the best options from St. Louis. While none of the Cardinals hitters really stood out in terms of their splits, I noticed something about Athletics pitcher J.T. Ginn:
There’s a ton of red in his “Vs. L” columns both this season and last, so Cardinals lefties are in a great spot tonight. Weatherholt is the best of the bunch, but certainly not the only option.
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Pictured: Jacob Misiorowski
Photo Credit: Imagn
