The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud and Value Pick
Shota Imanaga (R) $9,000 Chicago Cubs (-196) vs. Cincinnati Reds
There’s only one team on the slate with a total below four runs, and that’s the Reds, making Shota Imanaga a reasonably obvious top pitching choice for the afternoon slate. As it stands now, Imanaga is having the best season of his three-year MLB career, with his ERA sitting at 2.40, his other ERA indicators under 3.00, and a 27% strikeout rate.
We’ll see if he can maintain those numbers throughout the season, but an uptick in his fastball velocity suggests there’s something real behind them. At the very least, he’s unlikely to negatively regress today, given that the Reds are a bottom-five offense both overall and against right-handed pitching. They also strike out at a top-five rate, which gives Imanaga some additional upside.
On a larger slate, he wouldn’t stand out as one of the best options, but the afternoon slate on Thursday is just six games, most of which feature fairly high totals. Imanaga leads our projections in median, ceiling, and Pts/Sal thanks to his reasonable salary, with no other pitcher particularly close in any of those categories.
Naturally, that means he will also come with massive ownership. While that could be a problem in massive GPPs, I prefer to get unique elsewhere in my lineups, whether that means the other pitcher spot or with my hitters. Imanaga just stands out too much to fade, and we have other options.
Now available: our MLB DFS SimLabs Lineup Generator that creates advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.
MLB DFS GPP Picks
Mackenzie Gore (L) $8,200 Texas Rangers at New York Yankees
On the one hand, Mackenzie Gore‘s nearly 30% strikeout rate should make him a GPP candidate on nearly any slate. On the other hand, he’s facing the Yankees. They’re the AL’s best offense by nearly any metric and don’t strike out at an especially high clip. Gore has also struggled to keep runs off the board, with a 4.67 ERA this season, though he’s been a bit unlucky based on his underlying numbers. I’d be more than willing to roster Gore at low ownership based on his strikeout upside, but he’s projecting for Imanaga-level numbers. Check back closer to lock to see if that changes.
Simeon Woods Richardson (R) $6,500 Minnesota Twins at Washington Nationals
It’s scary to roster a Twins starter after they allowed 15 runs to the Nationals last night. Still, Washington is a roughly league-average offense overall, and it seems unlikely they go off like that again, especially with Washington featuring the best pitching weather on the early slate. Richardson has struggled this season with a 6.49 ERA, but the 25-year-old has hovered around 4.00 the past few years and has a good chance to get back on track tonight thanks to the conditions.
Paul Blackburn (R) $4,000 New York Yankees vs. Texas Rangers
Blackburn is getting a short-notice start due to a late injury for the Yankees. He’s exclusively been used out of the bullpen this season, with 14 innings through nine appearances. However, it seems like the Yankees’ intention is to let him pitch as long as possible rather than use him as an “opener.” He’s got a solid matchup against a Rangers team that ranks bottom 10 in both strikeouts and wRC+, and, with his stone-minimum salary, might be able to win you a GPP even with three or four innings, making him worth a look at low ownership.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model when generated by rating using our tournament model belongs to the New York Mets:
With the Mets at Coors Field tonight, it should come as no surprise to see them as the top stack. Their 6.1-run total is the best on the slate by a full run, and they have a favorable pitching matchup against former Met Jose Quintana.
Quintana has a 4.07 ERA but surprisingly has FIP and xFIP numbers on the wrong side of six. We almost never see that from Rockies pitchers, since the latter numbers are park-adjusted. That means Quintana “should” have an ERA about 50% higher at a neutral field, to say nothing of the best hitter’s park in baseball.
Plus, the Mets have some hitters with elite numbers against lefties, namely Bichette and Alvarez. The latter was also Quintana’s catcher in 2023 and 2024, which, in theory, means he knows Quintana’s pitches very well.
They’ll be popular, but I’m fine with eating the chalk here and using my other one-offs to get some unique options around the Mets and Imanaga.
Not interested in messing around with optimizer settings? No worries, you can use our MLB DFS Simulations and let it find the best way to control your stacks, exposure, correlations, and more!
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Cody Bellinger OF ($5,000) New York Yankees vs. Texas Rangers (Mackenzie Gore)
One of the reasons I’m not really interested in Gore is due to the Yankees’ elite numbers against left-handed pitching. Even the left-handed hitters at the top of their lineup have tremendous numbers, as you can see in PlateIQ:
I would’ve assumed Bellinger (and Rice) are far worse against lefties without the tip from PlateIQ — and I bet most of the field does as well. They both are projecting for fairly low ownership, making them elite GPP plays on an otherwise-chalky slate.
Maikel Garcia 3B ($4,500) Kansas City Royals (-133) vs. Cleveland Guardians (Slade Cecconi)
Maikel Garcia has the best rating in our tournament model of any hitter, which is impressive given that there’s a game at Coors Field today and he isn’t a part of it. However, the weather in Kansas City makes the situation there nearly as favorable as in Denver, with a 10% boost to scoring and a 30%+ boost to homers according to Weather Edge.
He’s reasonably priced for being the leadoff hitter on a team implied for five runs. More importantly, he’s projecting for single-digit ownership, which is important if you’re eating the chalk at other spots.
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Pictured: Shota Imanaga
Photo Credit: Imagn
