The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Tyler Glasnow (R) $8,900 Los Angeles Dodgers (-317) at Colorado Rockies
Major League Baseball has 10 games under the lights this Friday on the main DFS fantasy baseball slate, and of the 20 starting pitchers, Tyler Glasnow has the highest median, ceiling, and floor projections on the board in the FantasyLabs projections, and he also brings the highest projected Plus/Minus, indicating he’s a good value at his salary.
The major risk factor with Glasnow is the environment. He’ll be facing the Rockies at Coors Field, which is always high-risk for starting pitching since the ballpark is so hitter-friendly. While that keeps his salary low, he still has plenty of upside, especially since the forecast is for it to be very cold in Denver, with game-time temperatures around 40 degrees and a 10-mph wind blowing in from left field.
While the altitude is still a factor, the cold should help Glasnow keep the Rockies in check. Colorado is in the bottom 10 in the league in runs scored and in team wRC+. The Rockies also lead the majors with a 27.2% K%, giving Glasnow the third-highest strikeout prediction on the board in this matchup, where his Dodgers are the heaviest favorite of the night by a wide margin, according to our Vegas Dashboard.
Glasnow will actually be making his first career start at Coors Field after going 1-0 with a 2.00 ERA in 2 prior starts against the Rockies. He is off to a strong start with over 15 DraftKings points in each of his three starts and 22 strikeouts across 18 innings. He gave up four runs to the Rangers at home last Friday, and he’ll look for better results at chilly Coors Field this Friday.
Despite the risk, Glasnow brings a very high strikeout ceiling, making him a very strong anchor to build around this Friday.
MLB DFS Value Pick
Joe Ryan (R) $8,700 Minnesota Twins (-180) vs. Cincinnati Reds
The Twins have been one of the biggest surprises of the season and are playing well, coming into their interleague series at home against the Reds. On this stacked starting pitching slate, Joe Ryan has the second-highest Plus/Minus projections and the second-highest strikeout prediction. He isn’t a bargain-basement value but brings a very high ceiling and can be a great mid-range option alongside Glasnow as one of two mid-range arms to build around.
Ryan has pitched very well in three of his four starts this season, earning 21+ DraftKings points in each of those three outings. He struggled against the Royals in his one bad outlier but bounced back with only two earned runs allowed in each of his last two games across 12 innings against the Tigers and Blue Jays. He struck out 12 over that span, picking up a pair of wins and posting 21.6 DraftKings points against the Tigers and 23.4 DraftKings points against the Jays.
The wind is forecast to be blowing out at Target Field, but like Denver, it will be very cold at just over 40 degrees. The chill should take the home-run risk down for Ryan, who has typically pitched well in Minneapolis.
The Reds are not necessarily an easy matchup, but they were shut out on Thursday by the Giants. After not scoring in that loss, they have scored the third-fewest runs in the league (3.4 runs per game) and also rank in the top 10 in MLB in K%. They’re hitting only .200 as a team, and even though they have some pop, their team wRC+ of 77 is significantly below league average (defined as 100 wRC+).
Ryan has good strikeout upside and a good chance to turn in another ace-level outing, making him a very solid value play at home this Friday.
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MLB DFS GPP Pick
Jose Soriano (R) $8,200 Los Angeles Angels (-142) vs. San Diego Padres
Jose Soriano has a very low ownership projection despite his strong start to the season, since so many players are stacking two of the other aces on the board between $8,500 and $9,500. Soriano is a little cheaper and should be a good leverage play if he can continue his early-season success at home against San Diego.
In his first four starts of the season, Soriano has given up just one total run on nine hits across 27 innings. He has racked up 31 strikeouts in those 27 innings and averaged over 30 DraftKings points per outing. His longest start of the season was in his one home outing, when he held the Braves to just one run in eight innings on his way to 38.2 DraftKings points.
Soriano had 10 strikeouts in that game and followed it up with 10 more strikeouts in his last start, which was on the road in Cincinnati. Soriano’s start has been absolutely impressive, with a 0.33 ERA, a 0.67 WHIP, and a 2.35 FIP.
The Padres’ bats have gotten going lately, but Soriano still brings great upside if he can keep rolling on Friday night. His strong start to the season has been huge for the Angels, and he’ll look to keep it rolling Friday night in Anaheim.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model when generated by projected points using our tournament model belongs to the Los Angeles Dodgers:
The Dodgers are at Coors Field, and even though it will be cold, the Dodgers bring enough potential to still be the top stack. They’ll be facing Tomoyuki Sugano ($6,500). Sugano has been solid in his three starts for the Rockies, giving up four runs on 10 hits, but all four of his runs allowed have come on solo homers. He has a 45.8% hard-hit rate and 16.7% barrel rate against him, and his 5.39 FIP is in line with his 5.36 FIP from last year, when he had a 4.64 ERA. He seems due for some regression, and the Dodgers’ potent lineup is here to deliver it.
In the aggregate projections described below, Shohei Ohtani has the highest ceiling, median, and floor projection of all hitters on the slate and also the highest Plus/Minus projection. He is 2-for-2 with two homers against Sugano in the past, and he’ll likely return to hitting after pitching only on Wednesday. He had five multi-hit games and five homers in his last 11 games at the plate.
Teoscar Hernandez, Will Smith, and Freddie Freeman all have double-digit projections as well, with plenty of home-run potential. The Dodgers are an expensive stack, but if you can find the right value plays to put around them, they can be a strong core for Friday night.
Not interested in messing around with optimizer settings? No worries, you can use our MLB DFS Simulations and let it find the best way to control your stacks, exposure, correlations, and more!
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Andrew Benintendi OF ($2,700) Chicago White Sox at Athletics (Aaron Civale)
The White Sox have turned to veteran outfielder Andrew Benintendi as their primary leadoff hitter against right-handed pitchers. Benintendi is hitting only .167 on the season but has the second-highest Plus/Minus projection of all hitters on Friday night, behind only Ohtani.
Benintendi has reached base safely in seven straight games, going 3-for-20 (.150) with a double, two triples, and four walks.
In Friday’s game at hitter-friendly Sutter Health Park, Benintendi will face Aaron Civale, whom he has a great history against. In their past meetings, Benintendi is 5-for-13 with two homers and three walks against Civale, making him a great value play with a high ceiling in this contest.
Ivan Herrera C ($3,700) St. Louis Cardinals at Houston Astros (Peter Lambert)
The Astros starting rotation has been wiped out by injuries this season, with Hunter Brown, Cristian Javier, Tatsuya Imai, and Cody Bolton all landing on the injured list. After a bullpen game on Thursday, the team will give the ball to Peter Lambert on Friday, making his first start in the majors since 2024. He pitched in Japan last year, where he struggled a bit but has looked better in the minors this season.
Ivan Herrera is one of several Cardinals who make sense to consider in this matchup, and he should bring good leverage as well, based on his ownership projection. He has the highest Plus/Minus projection of all catchers on the slate, and he had hit safely in five of six games with a homer and five walks before going 0-for-2 with three walks on Wednesday. He has a 49.1% hard-hit rate on the season and a 56.3% hard-hit rate over the last five games.
Here’s how Herrera and the rest of the Cardinals’ lineup look in Plate IQ as they head into their favorable matchup on Friday night in Houston:
Daulton Varsho OF ($4,000) Toronto Blue Jays at Arizona Diamondbacks (Mike Soroka)
In the aggregate projections, Daulton Varsho has the sixth-highest Plus/Minus projection of all outfielders on the slate as he comes back to Arizona for the second time since he was traded to Toronto. He went 4-for-12 with three triples in his series back at Chase Field in 2024, and he comes into this matchup on a nice roll.
Varsho is hitting .266 on the year and rolls into this series with a seven-game hitting streak. During that streak, he’s 11 for 29 (.379) with two doubles, three homers, and a 44% hard-hit rate.
He’ll take on Michael Soroka, who has been solid for the Snakes this season but has been hittable by lefties like Varsho both this season and throughout his career. He’s not a cheap bargain like Benintendi, but Varsho’s value at $4,000 makes him an interesting option to mix into your lineup, especially if he keeps hitting second in Toronto’s batting order.
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Pictured: Tyler Glasnow
Photo Credit: Imagn
