Wednesday features a two-game slate starting at 7:30 p.m. ET.
Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs tools and projections.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
You can also use our SimLabs Lineup Generator, a tool that creates the most user-friendly lineup generation process.
Note: Projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly.
Consult the NBA Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
NBA DFS Point Guard Picks
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It’s so good to have meaningful NBA basketball back in our lives. The end of the regular season can feel like a slog, but we had two outstanding games to kick off the Play-In Tournament on Tuesday. Hopefully, Wednesday’s action can follow suit.
Tyrese Maxey stands out as one of the top point guard options on this slate. He’s going to be asked to carry a massive burden for the 76ers without Joel Embiid. He’s currently projected for 40 minutes in our NBA Models, and he’s seen a +2.42% usage bump with Embiid off the floor this season. Ultimately, he’s averaged 1.34 DraftKings points per minute in that split, so Maxey can do plenty of damage with 40+ minutes.
Maxey has the top ceiling projection at the position by a wide margin, and he’s first in that metric on the entire slate. He also ranks second at point guard in projected Plus/Minus, making him one of the top pay-up options of the day.
Value
De’Anthony Melton stands out as a solid value target for the Warriors. They’re still playing without Jimmy Butler and Moses Moody, opening up a solid chunk of minutes in their rotation. Melton is currently projected for 28 minutes, and he’s scored 29.0 and 37.0 DraftKings points in his past two games with a comparable workload. Overall, Melton has averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.04 with a comparable salary and minute projection this season (per the Trends tool).
Melton ranks first at point guard in projected Plus/Minus, and he stands out as underpriced at $4,400. He was $5,500 on DraftKings in his last game, and his current salary comes with a 93% Bargain Rating.
Fast Break
The Magic have had a massively disappointing season, and they’re coming off an embarrassing loss to end the regular season. They lost to the Celtics in a game they were actively trying to win, while Boston rested most of their key regulars. Still, Jalen Suggs has had a decent year, and he stands out as a solid midrange option. He’s averaged 1.04 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and he’s coming off 40.5 DraftKings points in his last outing. He’s projected for 34 minutes in our NBA Models after averaging just 27.6 minutes per game during the regular season.
Darius Garland has been a disappointment recently, posting a negative Plus/Minus in 10 straight games for the Clippers. That said, his playing time has been sporadic during that stretch. He should see an uptick in minutes during the postseason, and he’s averaged a solid 1.21 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. He’s an interesting buy-low candidate at $7,700.
Don’t forget to check out our NBA SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks
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VJ Edgecombe is another member of the 76ers who is going to have to pick up the slack without Embiid. Edgecombe got off to a fantastic start as a rookie before cooling down in the middle of the season. However, he’s picked things up again down the stretch. He’s scored at least 41.25 DraftKings points in two of his past three games.
Edgecombe has seen the second-largest usage bump on the team with Embiid off the floor this season (+2.84%). Like Maxey, he’s also projected for 40 minutes in this contest, and he’s averaged 1.10 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. He leads all shooting guards in ceiling projection, while he’s fourth in projected Plus/Minus.
Value
Kris Dunn isn’t the same level of offensive threat as some of the other value targets on this slate. He averaged just 7.3 points per game this year, and he averaged just 0.70 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. That gives him a pretty pedestrian ceiling.
However, he should be able to return value through sheer volume on Wednesday. He’s projected for 28.5 minutes at just $3,700, and players with comparable salaries and minute projections have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.60. He ranks first at shooting guard in projected Plus/Minus, and he’s projected for a pretty reasonable 21% ownership.
Fast Break
Anthony Black just returned from injury over the past two weeks, and the Magic have been careful with his minutes. However, he’s been extremely effective when on the floor. He’s averaged 1.21 DraftKings points per minute since his return, and he could see a few more minutes now that the team is fighting for survival. He has solid upside for his price tag, and his $4,300 salary comes with a 96% Bargain Rating.
Desmond Bane has not had nearly the impact that the Magic were hoping for this season. He hasn’t been bad – his numbers are pretty similar to his marks with the Grizzlies – but his presence hasn’t had the team-wide impact most were expecting. Still, he’s the only SG on this slate who can come close to matching Edgecombe from a ceiling standpoint. He’s projected for roughly 10% less ownership, making him an interesting pivot for tournaments.
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NBA DFS Small Forward Picks
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All four teams have pretty similar offensive expectations on Wednesday, but the Clippers do have the top implied team total on the slate. They’re listed as 5.5-point favorites over the Warriors, giving them a 113.5-point total.
Regardless of the situation, it’s hard to look past what Kawhi Leonard has done this season. While the team jettisoned James Harden and Ivica Zubac before the deadline, Leonard has mostly kept the Clippers afloat. He’s averaged 27.9 points, 6.4 rebounds, and 3.6 assists per game with his usual elite shooting efficiency, and he managed to get to 65 games played. It was the second time he’s reached that threshold in the past three seasons, and he should be rewarded with an All-NBA nod as a result.
Leonard has been a bit quiet recently for fantasy purposes, but he’s still averaged 1.38 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. That’s the top mark among all of Wednesday’s options. He should be locked into a sizable workload with the team now fighting for survival, giving him the top ceiling projection at the position and second-best on the entire slate. He also leads all small forwards with 10 Pro Trends, while his $9,200 salary comes with a 98% Bargain Rating. It’s close between Leonard and Maxey for the top overall spot on Wednesday, and I certainly don’t fault you if you choose the Clippers’ star.
Value
Gui Santos has been one of the few positive surprises for the Warriors this season. He entered the year as an afterthought, but he played well enough to earn a three-year, $15M contract. He put up career-best numbers across the board, and he’s averaged 0.97 DraftKings points per minute over the past month.
Santos is currently projected for 30 minutes in our NBA Models, and he’s averaged more than 30 DraftKings points with a comparable minute projection this season. A good chunk of those games came with Steph Curry sidelined, but he should still see enough work to be a solid option at $4,600.
Fast Break
What in the world has happened to Franz Wagner? He’s one of the Magic’s most important players, but injuries have derailed most of his season. The Magic have been careful with his minutes since he returned to the lineup, but they probably don’t have that luxury vs. the 76ers. He’s projected for 30 minutes in our NBA Models, and while that’s still not quite a full workload, it’s a pretty big increase from what he played to close out the regular season. It makes him an interesting option at a decreased $6,600 price tag.
Kelly Oubre should see a solid chunk of minutes for the 76ers on Wednesday. He’s currently projected for 34 minutes, and he’s averaged a solid 0.89 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. He’s also seen a +2.15% usage bump with Embiid off the floor this season, so he has just a smidge of extra upside. Oubre has scored at least 30.5 DraftKings points in two of his past three games, despite playing less than 32 minutes in both of them. Overall, he’s a reasonable choice at $5,500.
NBA DFS Power Forward Picks
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It has been a tumultuous season for Paul George. He ultimately lost 25 games due to a suspension, and he hasn’t looked quite like the same player when he has been available. He averaged just 17.3 points per game across his 37 contests, with Maxey officially taking over as the team’s go-to option.
Still, the 76ers need George on Wednesday. With Embiid out of the picture, no one on the team has benefited more. He’s seen a team-high +3.78% usage bump with Embiid off the floor this season, and he’s averaged 1.20 DraftKings points per minute in that split.
George ended the regular season on a down note, posting a negative Plus/Minus in five straight games. However, he saw more than 28.4 minutes in just two of those contests. He should be looking at closer to 36 minutes on Wednesday, and he still has the ability to fill it up with that much playing time. In two of his past three games with at least 36 minutes, he finished with 48.0 and 57.25 DraftKings points.
Value
The Clippers’ decision to turn Norman Powell into John Collins and Bradley Beal has essentially been a disaster. While Powell turned in an excellent season for the Heat, Beal missed almost the entire year due to injury, and Collins has been extremely disappointing. His numbers are way down compared to his final season in Utah, averaging just 13.6 points and 5.3 rebounds per game.
That said, the Clippers need Collins at this point; they simply don’t have a ton of alternatives in the frontcourt. Fortunately, he has played a bit better down the stretch. He’s averaged 0.99 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and he’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in five of his past eight games. One of the lone exceptions was a game where he played just 13.4 minutes, and he should see closer to 30 minutes vs. the Warriors. Collins is also a nice value at just $5,000, resulting in a 98% Bargain Rating.
Fast Break
Paolo Banchero has not had the leap that most were hoping for this season, but he’s still capable of putting up stats. He had a triple-double in the final game of the regular season, finishing with 53.5 DraftKings points vs. the Celtics. Banchero also has a solid postseason track record, including 29.4 points per game in their five-game series against the Celtics last season.
Derrick Jones could be another potential option for the Clippers at power forward. He’s not projected for quite as much playing time as Collins, and he’s not nearly the same player on a per-minute basis. However, he’s dirt cheap at just $3,800, and his 26 projected minutes aren’t nothing. Jones has historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +1.47 with a comparable salary and minute projection, so he has the potential to provide value at his minimal price tag.
NBA DFS Center Picks
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Kristaps Porzingis played in just 15 games after being acquired by the Warriors, and he averaged just 23.7 minutes per game in those contests. That makes him a major wild card on this slate. It’s possible he brings the same level of production to the table during the playoffs, but he also might see a big uptick in value.
Porzingis is currently projected for 30 minutes in our NBA Models, and if he sees that much playing time, he has the potential to be an absolute steal at $6,000. He’s still averaged 1.22 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, so he’s one of the best contributors on the slate on a per-minute basis. His price tag comes with a 99% Bargain Rating, and he ranks second on the slate in projected Plus/Minus.
Value
The only player with a better projected Plus/Minus on Wednesday also happens to be a center. That would be Brook Lopez, who is projected for 29 minutes at just $4,100 for the Clippers. Lopez wasn’t expected to be the Clippers’ primary center this season, but the Zubac trade and Yanic Konan Neiderhauser injury changed things. It leaves him as basically the last big man standing.
Lopez has fared well for fantasy purposes as the team’s starter. He’s averaged a Plus/Minus of +4.18 over his past 10 games, and he’s had at least 29.0 DraftKings points in three of his past four. His lone clunker during that stretch was against the Warriors, and it’s possible the Clippers play a smaller lineup in this matchup. Still, if Lopez can get back to around 30 minutes, he has the potential to be one of the best values of the day.
Fast Break
With Embiid on the shelf, the 76ers have cracked the “break glass in case of emergency” seal around Andre Drummond. He isn’t quite the same player that he was in his prime, but he’s still capable of doing huge damage when he’s on the floor. He’s racked up at least 33.75 DraftKings points in three straight games, and he’s averaged 1.18 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. He has a wide range of outcomes from a playing time perspective, but he brings plenty of upside to the table at just $4,800.
Speaking of players that aren’t as good as they used to be, Draymond Green fits that description perfectly for the Warriors. However, Green might still have a little gas left in the tank. He’s scored 34.5 and 40.75 DraftKings points in his past two games with legit minutes, and he’s averaged 0.92 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. Green should see 32+ minutes in the playoffs, and he’s projected for roughly 5% ownership on this slate. He doesn’t grade out particularly well in our projections, but he’s an interesting contrarian option.
Pictured: Tyrese Maxey
Photo Credit: Imagn
