The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Jacob Misiorowski (R) $9,000 Milwaukee Brewers (-125) vs. Toronto Blue Jays
After a very strong rookie season, albeit one in which he was probably better than his results indicated, the Brewers’ young phenom Jacob Misiorowski looks to be even better in 2026. Misiorowski finished 2025 with a 4.36 ERA but underlying numbers about a run better and a 31.9% strikeout rate. So far this season, all of those numbers have gotten better – especially the strikeouts.
Misiorowski has struck out over 40% of the hitters he’s faced this season. Of course, that’s unsustainable, but he’s also improved on his swinging-strike rate. That number now sits at 16.6% and would theoretically support a 35%+ K rate over the long term. He’s also gotten better at keeping runs off the board, with a 3.31 ERA through 16.1 innings pitched.
All of which has made him an elite fantasy asset, averaging more than 24 DraftKings points per game. His relatively short leash is the one drawback, but he topped 100 pitches in his last start. Striking everyone out obviously uses more pitches than getting outs on balls in play, but the extra DFS scoring makes it more than worth it.
He’s also got a tough matchup with the Blue Jays tonight, but good pitching tends to beat good hitting. He leads our median and ceiling projections and is a great play at $9,000 in all contest types.
MLB DFS Value Pick
Sonny Gray (R) $8,200 Boston Red Sox (-140) at Minnesota Twins
Things did not go so well for Boston pitching yesterday, with starter Garrett Crochet getting shelled for ten runs in less than two innings. That makes it somewhat scary to roster Sonny Gray against those same Twins tonight, but the likeliest outcome is the veteran righting the ship for Boston.
The 36-year-old Gray has finished each of the last seven seasons with an xERA mark in the mid threes, with some fluctuations in his actual results probably due to differing home ballparks and defensive quality behind him. This season, he’s allowed just five runs over more than 16 innings of work, picking up two wins along the way.
Gray hasn’t been an elite strikeout pitcher in a few years – and his swinging-strike rate is down this season – but he’s a solid bet for five or six innings of decent work. The Twins total tonight is just 3.8 runs, so the market expects him to keep runs off the board again.
While I wish he were a few hundred dollars cheaper, at his current price tag and projection, he holds a slight lead in our Pts/Sal projections.
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MLB DFS GPP Picks
Mackenzie Gore (L) $8,600 Texas Rangers (-120) at Athletics
Gore is an interesting option tonight, with two factors pointing in opposite directions. He’s taking on the Athletics, who have a 53 wRC+ and 28.5% strikeout rate against lefties this season. However, the game is in Sacramento, which trails only Coors Field as the best hitter’s park in baseball. Gore’s 39.7% strikeout rate is certainly a mark in his favor, though, since park factors don’t matter if teams can’t hit the ball. He’s GPP-only for me, but I want to be above the field’s projected 30% or so ownership.
Colton Gordon (L) $6,000 Houston Astros (-TBD) vs. Colorado Rockies
I don’t know much about Colton Gordon, but I do know about his opponent. The Rockies were historically bad last season and haven’t improved much, coming into the game ranking second-worst in both strikeout rate and wRC+ against lefties (and not much better against righties). Anytime they’re away from the thin Colorado air, I’m rostering pitchers against them, even if the pitcher finished his first big league season with an ERA over five and is making his season debut tonight.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model when generated by rating using our tournament model belongs to the Atlanta Braves:
The Braves are a nice mix of value and upside tonight, with a 4.8-run implied total that’s just 0.2 runs off the leader on the slate. With their stack relatively budget-friendly outside of superstar Ronald Acuna, they fit nicely into lineups trying to roster two higher-priced pitchers on Tuesday.
Much of that is due to the matchup with Miami’s Max Meyer ($7,800), who has a career 5.12 ERA in the MLB while splitting time between the majors and minors since 2022. While his ERA this season sits at just 3.68, his 5.51 xERA suggests he’s been way more lucky than good to start the season. He’s also faced two of the three worst teams in baseball (by wRC+) in two of his three starts this season, both coming at home in Miami.
Now he’s traveling to Atlanta to face a much tougher lineup, with temperatures north of 80 degrees. Look for some regression to strike Meyer tonight and lead to some big scores for Atlanta bats.
Not interested in messing around with optimizer settings? No worries, you can use our MLB DFS Simulations and let it find the best way to control your stacks, exposure, correlations, and more!
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Aaron Judge OF ($6,400) New York Yankees vs. Los Angeles Angels (Reid Detmers)
I probably don’t need to say much to convince anyone that Aaron Judge is a good play. However, he’s uniquely positioned for big numbers tonight thanks to a variety of factors pointing his way. The Yankees are at home, where right-handed home runs are boosted 18% over league average. The weather conditions add another 12% to home runs in this game and boost overall scoring around 7%.
Most importantly, he’s facing Angels lefty Reid Detmers ($6,500), putting Judge on the strong side of his platoon splits. The numbers look pretty ridiculous in PlateIQ:
Jude has a nearly three-point lead on any other hitter tonight in median projection and is well worth the steep price.
Jake Burger 1B ($3,900) Texas Rangers at Athletics (Jeffrey Springs)
The Rangers put up eight runs last night against the A’s, with four of them driven in by Jake Burger, who hit a pair of home runs. While he probably won’t leave the yard twice again tonight, it’s another incredible spot for the Rangers’ first baseman, thanks to both the friendly park factors and the matchup.
While A’s starter Jeffrey Springs ($8,000) has great numbers so far this season, two of his three outings were on the road. As a fly-ball pitcher, that’s an important factor, as the ball tends to carry out of his home park. Plus, Burger has much better numbers against southpaws, with his OPS last season nearly 200 points higher than against righties.
While I don’t love chasing yesterday’s top performance, the stars are aligned for another big game from Burger today.
Jacob Wilson SS ($3,700) Athletics vs. Texas Rangers (Mackenzie Gore)
With Gore projecting as one of the highest-owned pitchers on the slate, there’s a strong case to be made for rostering hitters against him in GPPs. The best option is Wilson, who we’re projecting to lead off the Athletics lineup against Gore.
He’s the highest-rated shortstop in our models despite his poor numbers this season, but I’m more inclined to trust the .311 batting average he finished last season with. He obviously gets the benefit of the hitter-friendly home park tonight as well. Plus, over his career, he’s hit .286 against lefties compared to just .220 against righties, so he’s on the better side of his splits tonight.
Rostering him and fading Gore would give a double dose of GPP leverage while saving salary, making him a very interesting option.
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Pictured: Jacob Misiorowski
Photo Credit: Imagn
