The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Ranger Suarez (L) $9,200 Boston Red Sox (-140) vs. Baltimore Orioles
Ranger Suarez has been absent for most of Boston’s 14-game winning streak – he’s pitched just 1 in that span, on July 5th. That’s because he was injured in that contest, exiting the game early with a groin strain and going on the 15-day IL. He’s back today and will be looking to get back to his 3.15 ERA/25.8% strikeout rate form.
There’s always a slight risk in rostering players – especially pitchers – coming back from an injury. I’m not especially worried here, though, given both the brevity and location (crucially, not elbow/shoulder) of the injury. Vegas isn’t especially worried either, with the Orioles’ run total just 0.2 runs away from being the lowest on the slate.
Baltimore is a roughly league-average team against lefties, but they strike out at one of the highest rates. Given Suárez’s low ERA and moderate strikeout rate, that’s probably a good setup. We aren’t really worried about him giving up too many runs, and Baltimore’s strikeout rate provides some additional upside.
Crucially, his $9,200 price tag also makes him one of the more affordable “star” pitchers on the slate, which is hugely important given the Coors Field game with a massive total and expensive hitters. Suárez is second in median and ceiling projection on the slate, but the salary drop-off from #1 makes him the more obvious option at the top.
Update: Suarez was scratched from his start, making Chase Burns the highest-projected pitcher on the slate by a wide margin.
MLB DFS Value Pick
Luis Castillo (R) $7,600 Seattle Mariners (-111) vs. Cincinnati Reds
On a slate without any especially low team totals, the Reds’ 3.8-run mark is tied for lowest on the slate. That automatically makes $7,600 Luis Castillo an excellent play, especially in lineups where you’re trying to squeeze in expensive hitters from the top games on the slate.
Castillo comes into the matchup against his former team with an uncharacteristic 4.93 ERA. The only previous season that he’s finished with an ERA above 4.00 was his sophomore campaign with the Reds in 2018, where he had a HR/FB ratio nearly double what he does this year – which makes sense considering the Park Factor differences between Cincinnati (#2 home run ballpark) and Seattle (#19 for home runs, 30th in overall scoring).
However, the matchup with Cincinnati could be what he needs to get back on track. They’ve fallen to 29th in wRC+ against right-handed pitching while striking out at the highest rate of any team. With this game also being in the best pitcher’s park in baseball, this is quite literally the best possible situation for a right-handed pitcher to be in.
That’s enough for me at $7,600 and roughly 10% projected ownership, at least in tournaments. He might be just a bit too thin for cash games, though it’s potentially worth the risk even there.
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MLB DFS Tournament Picks
Kumar Rocker (R) $6,400 Texas Rangers (-130) vs. Chicago White Sox
Globe Life Field in Arlington is the second-best pitcher’s park in baseball, cutting scoring by 7% from the typical stadium (T-Mobile in Seattle is -9%). That might explain why a solid White Sox lineup is implied for right around 4 runs against Kumar Rocker, despite his 4.40 ERA on the season. Nothing about Rocker’s numbers is especially inspiring, but he’s awfully cheap considering the Vegas data in this one.
Chase Burns (R) $11,500 Cincinnati Reds (-108) at Seattle Mariners
Burns actually has the highest median and ceiling projection on the slate but is a tough click at his massive price tag. However, his 2.54 ERA and 28.6% strikeout rate are both very solid, and he gets a huge park upgrade going from his home in Cincinnati to Seattle. For a fly-ball pitcher like Burns – his 44.7% rate is about 6% higher than league average – that’s especially impactful. He has slate-breaking potential if things break right, so it’s worth getting some exposure to him, as painful as paying for it may be.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model when generated by rating using our tournament model belongs to the Washington Nationals:
The Nationals put up 7 runs in the first game of their series at Coors Field, where they got a dream matchup against a southpaw starter. They’ve seen their salaries jump even higher for this game, where they have a 6.7-run implied total against righty Michael Lorenzen ($5,300). Lorenzen has a 6.22 overall ERA and 7.78 home ERA this season, so it’s easy to see the bull case for Washington.
What’s harder to see is a path toward spending nearly $6,000 per player for a team stack. You’d have to roll the dice on 2 of the cheaper pitchers on the slate, and even with, for example, Castillo and Rocker, you’d barely have the minimum salary left for the other 3 hitter spots.
I prefer going with game stacks that also feature the Rockies, who have an identical total, in spots where we can save salary. For example, leaving Abrams/Wood/Garcia from the Nationals and mixing in some Colorado bats can make the stack much more affordable, and since Lorenzen is considerably worse against lefties, it makes sense to prioritize those 3.
Regardless, the upside is massive if you can afford it, but that’s a big “if” tonight.
Not interested in messing around with optimizer settings? No worries, you can use our MLB DFS Simulations and let it find the best way to control your stacks, exposure, correlations, and more!
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Shea Langeliers C ($5,400) Athletics at Arizona Diamondbacks (Kohl Drake)
Most of the field will be scrambling to jam in as many bats from the Coors Field game as possible. That creates a tremendous leverage opportunity if you’re willing to roll the dice on other games, especially on more expensive hitters.
One of my favorite ways to do that is with Langeliers. The A’s are implied for about 5 runs on the road in Arizona, where they take on rookie lefty Kohl Drake ($6,300), who is making his MLB debut but had a 6.92 ERA in the minors this season. The A’s are only slightly above-average against lefties overall, but Langeliers is elite, as we see in PlateIQ:
I chose “current and last season” for the screenshot in service of a larger sample size, but he’s been even better this year, with both his ISO and wOBA about 5 points higher. Getting him for about 4% projected ownership makes him a massive steal.
Kyle Karros 3B ($3,700) Colorado Rockies vs. Washington Nationals (Miles Mikolas)
I’m going back to the well on Karros, whom I recommended yesterday and saw just a $100 uptick in his price point on Tuesday. His 5 DraftKings points were underwhelming but not disastrous, and Vegas has this as an even better spot for the Rockies than last night.
The broader point, though, is exposure to the Rockies against Mikolas ($5,000), who has a 5.53 ERA despite pitching at a much better venue (for him) than Coors Field and a very low strikeout rate that spells trouble in the thin air and massive dimensions in Denver. The Rockies’ top 5 hitters cost $4,400 less than the Nationals’ equivalent stack with a virtually identical team total – with much of that savings derived from the cheap price on Karros.
Trent Grisham OF ($4,000) New York Yankees vs. Pittsburgh Pirates (Bubba Chandler)
With the tight salary structure today, I find myself continuing to come back to Grisham. He’s set to lead off a Yankees lineup implied for 5.3 runs against Chandler ($6,600) and the Pirates. Grisham isn’t the most exciting option as a slightly above-average hitter this season, but with New York’s team total and his lineup spot, he’s an obvious value.
Plus, Chandler has allowed a wOBA of .349 against lefties, nearly 60 points higher than his mark against right-handed hitters. Be careful, though, as there’s a pretty strong chance of rain around game time, so be sure to have some pivots ready to go if you do roster Grisham, or anyone else from this game.
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Pictured: Luis Castillo
Photo Credit: Imagn
