The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Tyler Glasnow (R) $9,800 Los Angeles Dodgers (-235) vs. Texas Rangers
With 11 games on Friday night, plenty of strong starting pitchers are good options to build around. Tyler Glasnow has the highest median, ceiling, and floor projections on the slate, and his Dodgers are the heaviest favorites on the slate as they come home after a six-game road trip to host the Rangers.
Glasnow matches the most Pro Trends of all the starting pitchers on the board. He also has the highest strikeout prediction by a wide margin, and the Rangers have the sixth-lowest implied run total.
On Friday, Glasnow will be making his third start of the season after earning 18.5 DraftKings points in his season debut against the Diamondbacks and 27.9 DraftKings points against the Nationals in his most recent outing. He went exactly six innings in each start, allowing four hits and two runs. He had six strikeouts against Arizona but picked that up with nine strikeouts against the Nationals. The other difference in the scoring of the two games is that he earned a win against Washington but a no-decision against the Snakes.
Glasnow was better at home than on the road last year, and the Rangers rank in the middle of the pack in most team batting stats coming into this series. While it isn’t a smash spot, it’s a strong enough matchup to make Glasnow stand out among the rest of the options on the board this Friday, since there aren’t many other elite arms in play, even though there are some strong value plays.
MLB DFS Value Pick
Connelly Early (L) $7,700 Boston Red Sox (-147) at St. Louis Cardinals
In THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders, Connelly Early has the third-highest Plus/Minus projection of all the pitchers on the slate, and the young Red Sox lefty has shown a high enough ceiling to be a strong option as the Sox go on the road to face the Cardinals.
Early has 10 strikeouts in his 9 1/3 innings this season, but he struggled with his control and ran up his pitch count in the cold in Boston in his last start. With temps in the 60s and wind blowing in, he should be in a more favorable environment for success this Friday against the Cardinals.
In his first start of the year in Cincinnati, Early impressed with 17.8 DraftKings points in 5 1/3 innings in a no-decision. He is still looking for his first win of the year, but he brings a high ceiling with his strikeout upside. In his 28 2/3 MLB innings, he has 39 strikeouts. Last year in the minors, he had 132 strikeouts in 100 1/3 innings. He brings a high ceiling with that strikeout upside, and he is a great value as he looks for his first win of the season.
He should get run support against the struggling Dustin May, and the Cardinals offense has not been great, aside from Jordan Walker. The team is hitting only .226 overall, although they have hit lefties well in a very small sample size.
Early is high-risk after struggling with his control against the Padres, but if he can find his rhythm in St. Louis, he brings a high ceiling for Friday night’s slate.
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MLB DFS GPP Pick
Steven Matz (L) $7,500 Tampa Bay Rays (+125) vs. New York Yankees
Taking on the Yankees’ heavy-hitting offense is a high-risk play on any slate, but on Friday, lefty Steven Matz has enough upside to take the big risk to help your lineup stand out for GPP contests. Matz is relatively affordable and has looked good this season, but the matchup at the Trop makes him high risk.
In each of his first two starts of the season, Matz was on the road with the Rays. He allowed four runs in five innings but still earned a win and 7.0 DraftKings points against the Cardinals in his first start of the year, and he was even sharper in his next outing, holding the Twins to one run on two hits in six innings and adding eight strikeouts for 29.1 DraftKings points.
That’s the kind of upside Matz has flashed in the past, although he has struggled to be consistent from start to start. The Rays have unlocked the potential in many pitchers in the past, and Matz may be this year’s journeyman that the team overhauls and improves. His early returns have been strong, but he’ll get a tough test as the Bronx Bombers come to town.
The Yankees have lost three of their last four games, but they’re still an extremely potent offense. In the early part of the season, though, lefties like Matz have had plenty of success against them. The team is hitting an MLB-worst .122 in the split against southpaws. They also have the sixth-highest K% in baseball this season, so the strikeout potential is there, along with all the power.
Matz is a high-risk play, but the strikeout upside he showed in his last start is enough to make him a good play for GPP this Friday night.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model, when generated by projected points using our tournament model belongs to the Boston Red Sox:
The Red Sox offense has struggled in the early part of the season, but they’re a strong stack in a great spot as they leave the chilly confines of Fenway Park and head on the road to St. Louis, where they’ll take on their former pitcher Dustin May ($6,200), who left as a free agent this past offseason. May has been hit hard in his two starts for the Cardinals, giving up 13 runs on 17 hits (including two homers) over just 9 1/3 innings. Lefties are 10-for-20 with a 1.000 SLG and .637 wOBA against him in the small sample size, so the Red Sox lefties should get a nice boost to start their road trip.
The top five in the order are the stack to build around, including the three lefty outfielders in Wilyer Abreu, Jarren Duran, and Roman Anthony. Abreu has been the most productive of the three so far this season with an average of 10.5 DraftKings points per game and three homers, all of which came on the road.
It will also be a homecoming weekend for Willson Contreras, who has been solid for the Sox, hitting .250 (10-for-40) with a pair of homers and an average of 8.0 DraftKings points per game since coming to Boston from St. Louis in an offseason trade.
Not interested in messing around with optimizer settings? No worries, you can use our MLB DFS Simulations and let it find the best way to control your stacks, exposure, correlations, and more!
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Byron Buxton OF ($4,900) Twins at Toronto Blue Jays (Patrick Corbin)
In the aggregate projections, Byron Buxton has the highest Plus/Minus projection of any player on the slate. He has the second-highest ceiling projection on the board behind only Aaron Judge, but since Judge’s salary is $1,500 higher, Buxton is a better value.
Buxton and the Twins are coming off a four-game sweep of the Tigers as they head to Toronto to face the Blue Jays. Toronto’s pitching staff has taken multiple injury hits in the first few weeks of the season, and they will call on veteran lefty Patrick Corbin to make the start this Friday.
In his career, Buxton is 2-for-10 with two homers and four RBI against Corbin, and he comes into this matchup looking to get going after a slower start to the season. In his first 12 games, Buxton is 9-for-45 (.200) with three doubles and a triple. He has a solid 48.5% hard-hit rate, but his BABIP is below league average, indicating he could be due for some positive regression.
This matchup against Corbin should be a good one for Buxton since last season he hit .306 with a .427 wOBA and 178 wRC+ against lefties.
Garrett Mitchell OF ($3,600) Milwaukee Brewers vs. Washington Nationals (Jake Irvin)
The Brew Crew comes home to their dome after playing outside in Boston, and they’ll look to get the bats warmed up for this favorable series against the Nationals. On Friday, they’ll face Jake Irvin, who led the majors in home runs allowed last year, giving up 26 of his 38 homers allowed to lefties and 21 of those home runs when pitching on the road.
Mitchell is healthy after missing most of last year with a shoulder injury, and the 25-year-old lefty is off to a strong start, going 9-for-29 (.310) with three stolen bases, three doubles, and a home run to average 10.1 DraftKings points per game. He has double-digit DraftKings points in three of his last five starts, and he has the fourth-highest Plus/Minus projection of all outfielders in the aggregate projections for Friday.
The Brewers have a nice lineup stacked with lefties to go up against Irvin this Friday. Here’s how they look in PlateIQ:
Edgar Quero C ($2,100) Chicago White Sox at Kansas City Royals (Kris Bubic)
In the aggregate projections, Edgar Quero has the second-highest Plus/Minus projection of all catchers and can be a great option if you are looking to go super-low in one spot to save salary to spend across the rest of your roster. Quero can enable a number of pay-up stacks or a pair of big-salary pitchers since his salary is barely over the minimum.
Quero is getting most of the work behind the plate for the White Sox in the early part of the season after Kyle Teel suffered a hamstring injury in the World Baseball Classic. He is 6-for-31 (.194) on the season, and all six of those hits have been singles. Last year, the 23-year-old switch-hitter showed good upside, especially against lefties like Bubic.
In his 129 at-bats last year against southpaws, Quero hit .357 for the White Sox with a home run and a .372 wOBA. He has only had limited at-bats against lefties this season, which may be part of the reason for his slow start. After getting Wednesday off, Quero picked up a pair of hits on Thursday. He’ll look to build on that momentum in this matchup against Bubic, and he’ll be a great value if he chips in any production at this salary.
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Pictured: Tyler Glasnow
Photo Credit: Imagn
