The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Garrett Crochet (L) $10,000 Boston Red Sox (-153) vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Between the cold/pitcher-friendly weather conditions and the fact that a few aces are taking the mound tonight, we have a ton of options projecting well at the top of the pitcher scale. The narrow leader of the group is Crochet, who continues to provide massive upside thanks to his strikeout numbers.
Crochet led the majors with 255 strikeouts last season and was just one of 2 pitchers (the other we will get to shortly) to top a 30% strikeout rate for the season. So far in 2026, he’s picked up right where he left off, with 15 strikeouts across 11 innings of work for a 31.9% rate. Those strikeouts give him both a solid floor and a massive ceiling, depending on his run prevention. In his first start of the year, he pitched 6 scoreless innings and topped 30 DraftKings points; in his second, he gave up 4 runs but still managed to put up 12.45 points.
With the Brewers implied for just 3.3 runs tonight, odds are he falls closer to the former result than the latter. With it being his third start of the season, he’s also likely to have a slightly longer leash if he’s pitching well, further raising his upside. While Milwaukee isn’t a great matchup, Crochet’s ability and the underlying circumstances are more than enough to trust him today.
MLB DFS Value Pick
Mike Burrows (R) $6,000 Houston Astros (-180) at Colorado Rockies
Finding value on the slate is much harder than finding studs at the top of your lineup. That means we’ll probably need to make some uncomfortable choices if we want any salary left over for hitters.
Over the last few seasons, pitching against the Rockies has been a fairly safe fallback plan, even at Coors Field. That backfired spectacularly yesterday with Colorado going for 9 total runs, but their lineup is still tied for last in wRC+ on the season. That’s where Burrows comes in.
He split time between the bullpen and rotation last season but finished with a sub-4.00 ERA and similar underlying numbers. Through 2 starts this season, he’s been somewhat unlucky with an ERA over 5.00 but an xERA under 4.00. While a game in Colorado isn’t the most obvious “get-right” spot, the relatively tough weather at least mitigates the risk of a game at Coors Field.
Burrows is also cheap on DraftKings, where his 95% Bargain Rating stands out. We have him projected for around 15 points, giving him the best Pts/Sal projection on the slate. If he can approach that number at just $6,000 in salary, the roster flexibility he provides could be a major difference-maker.
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MLB DFS GPP Picks
Tarik Skubal (L) $10,500 Detroit Tigers (-170) at Minnesota Twins
Skubal is the aforementioned pitcher who beat out Crochet in K% last year and will be looking to turn in a third straight dominant season as he enters free agency following the year. We have him projected just slightly behind Crochet in what is theoretically a slightly better matchup, making him an excellent pay-up-to-be-contrarian option if you can find the salary. Our ownership projections have him much less popular than Crochet, so finding the $500 could be worth it.
Cam Schlittler (R) $8,500 New York Yankees (–223) vs. Athletics
On a slate without multiple $10,000+ pitchers and a powerful offense in Coors Field, Cam Schlittler would make a ton of sense as the value option. We have him just behind Burrows in Pts/Sal as he takes on an Athletics team implied for just 3.5 runs. Pairing Cam Schlittler with one of the stud pitchers and spending down on offense is a very unique way to approach this slate that makes sense for larger-field GPPs, as most of the field will want a cheaper second pitcher
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model when generated by rating using our tournament model belongs to the Houston Astros:
While the Astros lost last night, it’s hard to complain about the 7 runs generated by their offense in Coors Field. They’re unsurprisingly projecting as the top stack yet again tonight, with a 6.2-run implied total for the second game of their series in Colorado.
This time they’re taking on Kyle Freeland, the Rockies southpaw “ace” who finished last season with an ERA and underlying numbers around 5.00. His ERA is presently just 2.89 – but his first 2 starts of the season were on the road, and his underlying numbers suggest he’s been extremely lucky.
Look for that luck to run out tonight against the Astros, who have the best numbers of any team in baseball against lefties so far this season. While they’re somewhat expensive, it’s not entirely prohibitive, making them a pretty obvious play for all contest types.
Not interested in messing around with optimizer settings? No worries, you can use our MLB DFS Simulations and let it find the best way to control your stacks, exposure, correlations, and more!
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Edouard Julien 1B ($2,600) Colorado Rockies vs. Houston Astros (Mike Burrows)
One way to save salary outside of punting with Burrows is by rostering the Rockies themselves. As mentioned before, they hung 9 runs on Houston yesterday and are implied for a solid 4.9 – third-best on the slate – today. That makes it especially notable that Edouard Julien is so cheap, since we’re projecting him to hit first in the Colorado lineup.
The thesis of this entry is more that you should roster either some Rockies hitters or Burrows, since they’re collectively underpriced and one group or the other almost has to put up points by definition. However, Edouard Julien stands out as particularly underpriced, making him the best option overall for saving salary.
Trent Grisham ($3,800) New York Yankees vs. Athletics (Aaron Civale)
The Yankees have the second-best implied total on the slate, but given the pitching options and Coors game, they’re a luxury that most lineups won’t be able to afford. Most of the Yankees’ big names are prohibitively priced relative to the other options.
That is, except Trent Grisham. His numbers in PlateIQ against righties are almost as elite as the more recognizable hitters, making him an excellent way to get some Yankees exposure without breaking the bank:
Ivan Herrera C ($3,400) St. Louis Cardinals at Washington Nationals (Cade Cavali)
Our projections have the Cardinals catcher ahead of Seattle’s Cal Raleigh ($5,100), despite coming with a $1,700 discount. That makes him a pretty obvious play at a position of need for most lineups. Catcher is typically my first look for a “punt” play to save some salary, but I’m willing to scrounge up the salary to get someone with Herrera’s upside.
The catcher/DH hit .284 with 19 home runs in 107 games last season and leads the position in Pts/Sal projection while coming in second in median and ceiling.
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Pictured: Garrett Crochet
Photo Credit: Imagn
