The Player Models are the lifeblood of our NFL DFS product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. After all, a projection is just part of the equation: salary, ceiling, and projected ownership all factor into which players stand out as the best plays each week.
Let’s dive into our models and look at a few players with the highest ceilings and values for this week’s slate.
Note: Projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the week after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
And don’t forget about the tools that FantasyLabs has to offer, like our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Oh yeah! And our SimLabs Lineup Generator gives you the ability to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.
You can check out our in-depth SimLabs guide here.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
NFL DFS Quarterback Picks
Top Ceiling: Dak Prescott at Washington Commanders – $6,900 on DraftKings, $8,500 on FanDuel
Week 17 kicks off with a three-game Christmas Day slate, which feels very similar to the typical Turkey Day lineup. All three matchups are divisional matchups, which are also rematches from earlier this season. Of the six QBs on the board, Dak Prescott has the top median, ceiling, and floor projections at the position on both DraftKings and FanDuel, using an evenly blended three-way aggregate of Carty, Raybon, and Koerner’s projections, as highlighted above. In this post, we’ll lean into that aggregate as a strong, balanced approach to the slate.
Prescott has exceeded salary-based expectations in five of his last six games on FanDuel, and he threw for over 290 yards in four straight games coming into last week’s matchup with the Chargers, when he threw for 244 yards and two touchdowns in a loss to the Chargers. The Cowboys QB finished that game with 19.2 DraftKings points and has had at least that level of production in five of his six games since the bye week.
For Christmas, Prescott has one of the juiciest matchups on the small slate since the Commanders have allowed the third-most DraftKings points to opposing QBs this season. Quarterbacks have thrown 30 touchdowns against them in 15 games while averaging 254.9 yards per game.
Prescott had three touchdowns against Washington in Week 7, finishing with 23.3 DraftKings points and 264 passing yards in the Cowboys’ 44-22 victory.
He’ll look to post a similar total this week, and with such a favorable matchup, Prescott should be set up to deliver some Christmas cheer in the first game of the day as a pay-up quarterback play.
Top Value: Josh Johnson vs. Dallas Cowboys – $4,400 on DraftKings, $6,300 on FanDuel
On the other side of that NFC East matchup, Johnson has the highest Plus/Minus projection of all quarterbacks in the three-way aggregate projections on both DraftKings and FanDuel. Johnson is expected to get the start in place of the injured Marcus Mariota (hand/quad) and Jayden Daniels (shoulder).
If he does get the start, Johnson will be making his first start since 2021, when he started for the Ravens in Week 17. The 39-year-old QB has bounced around the league for the last 17 years, spending time with the Bucs, Browns, Bengals, Commanders, Jets, Ravens, and 49ers and coming back to the Ravens and Commanders in the last few seasons. He also played in the XFL and the Alliance of American Football during his long career, which has led to him picking up this Christmas Day start against Dallas.
Johnson got his first action of this season last week, completing 5-of-9 passes for 43 yards with an interception and no touchdowns after coming in for Mariota against the Eagles. Earlier in his career, he flashed rushing upside, but he might not be ready to run around on Thursday against the Cowboys at this point in his career.
He does have a favorable matchup since no team in the NFL has been a better matchup this season for QBs than the Cowboys. They’ve allowed 33 passing touchdowns and eight rushing touchdowns to QBs in their 15 games, along with an average of 273 passing yards per game.
Johnson does have a solid group of playmakers to work with since Terry McLaurin and Deebo Samuel Sr. should both be available, along with reclamation project Treylon Burks and a backfield rotation of Chris Rodriguez Jr., Jeremy McNichols, and Jacory Croskey-Merritt. If he can find those options in space, they can contribute plenty of YAC to boost Johnson’s final totals.
He’s so extremely cheap on both sites that if he posts a decent game, he’ll be a great way to save up salary to squeeze stars into other spots on your roster. Going cheap at QB can push your lineup towards the top of the Christmas Day heap if the top options you target in other spots come through.
NFL DFS Running Back Picks
Top Ceiling: Jahmyr Gibbs at Minnesota Vikings – $8,300 on DraftKings, $9,400 on FanDuel
The Lions have the second-highest implied team total on Thursday’s slate, behind only Prescott’s Cowboys. Detroit’s offense has struggled to get the run game going the last few weeks as their playoff hopes have dwindled, so look for them to be very intentional in getting the ball to Jahmyr Gibbs early and often on Thursday afternoon in the middle game of the Christmas tripleheader.
Gibbs is the main elite running back on the slate, and as a result, he has the highest median, ceiling, and floor projections at the position by a wide margin. He also has the top Plus/Minus projection on both sites since he is expected to outproduce his salary, even though he’s the most expensive option on the board.
Last week, Gibbs bounced back from a down week against the Rams and cranked out 22.8 DraftKings points against the Steelers. He only managed two rushing yards on his seven carries, but he had a good fantasy day by catching 10 of his 13 targets for 66 yards and a touchdown. He has over 22 DraftKings points in five of his last seven games and brings a very high ceiling with four games of at least 37 DraftKings points in his last nine contests and a high point of 58.4 DraftKings points against the Giants in Week 12.
Gibbs had only 5.8 DraftKings points against the Vikings in the first meeting between these two teams in Week 9, which the Vikings won, 27-24. The Lions will look to avenge that loss and keep their fading playoff hopes alive this Christmas. The Vikings are a fairly neutral matchup for RBs overall, but they have allowed nine rushing touchdowns in the last nine weeks to the position.
If you have the salary to spend on a running back, Gibbs is the option with the highest ceiling and most potential to break the slate with a monster game this Christmas.
Top Value: Aaron Jones Sr. vs. Detroit Lions – $5,700 on DraftKings, $6,700 on FanDuel
Vikings running back Aaron Jones Sr. has the best projections of the cheaper running backs on the board for Christmas Day, behind the three most expensive options of Gibbs, Javonte Williams, and RJ Harvey.
Jones has been limited in practice this week by an ankle injury, but since Jordan Mason (ankle) hasn’t practiced at all, it looks like Jones is lined up to start this matchup against the Lions. Without J.J. McCarthy (hand), the Vikings will turn to Max Brosmer at QB, which will likely lead to a run-heavy game plan based on how they’ve schemed with Brosmer under center so far this season.
Last week against the Giants, Jones earned a season-high 23 touches and accounted for 93 yards from scrimmage. He didn’t get into the end zone but finished with a solid 11.3 DraftKings points. He has at least 8.7 DraftKings points in six of his last eight games, despite being held out of the end zone since Week 10.
Jones seems to be lined up for a heavy workload against the Lions, who he gashed for 78 rushing yards on nine carries with two catches for 20 more yards in their Week 9 matchup.
The Lions have been relatively solid against the run most of the season, but they gave up six running back touchdowns in the last two weeks and an average of 219 rushing and receiving yards to running backs in that small window.
The Vikings will have to lean heavily on Jones if Mason is out, and he could end up a great value option as a result.
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NFL DFS Wide Receiver Picks
Top Ceiling: Amon-Ra St. Brown at Minnesota Vikings – $7,900 on DraftKings, $9,100 on FanDuel
St. Brown missed practice on Monday and was limited on Tuesday, but if he plays against the Vikings, he should be set up for a big game, according to our projections. St. Brown has the highest ceiling, median, and floor projections on both sites, and he also has the highest Plus/Minus projection of all receivers.
Last week, St. Brown was limited to four catches for 54 yards against the Steelers, and the Vikings are another tough matchup for him this week. However, he has been so productive this season that he’s still worth considering spending up for since he brings such a high ceiling.
On the season, St. Brown is up to 98 catches for 1,194 yards and 11 touchdowns. He went off for 44.4 DraftKings points two weeks ago in a tough matchup against the Rams and has at least 15 DraftKings points in six of his last eight games, not counting the game he left injured on Thanksgiving.
As long as the injury doesn’t hold him back, he should be ready for a Christmas Day feast against the Vikings. He had nine catches for 97 yards in their first meeting this season, so even though Minnesota is typically good against receivers, St. Brown still brings a high enough ceiling to be a pay-up play.
If the Lions are going to keep their playoff hopes alive, they’ll need a big game from St. Brown, so expect another high-volume week for St. Brown on Thursday.
Top Value: Deebo Samuel Sr. vs. Dallas Cowboys – $4,800 on DraftKings, $6,000 on FanDuel
The Commanders’ receivers have very solid value projections as a group since the Cowboys are a good matchup, and they’re all relatively inexpensive. Samuel stands out from the rest of his teammates, though, since he brings the second-highest Plus/Minus projections at receiver on both sites in the aggregate projections. He’s especially affordable on DraftKings, where he has a 91% Bargain Rating.
Deebo had three catches for 35 yards last week against the Eagles, and he has at least three catches in 11 straight games despite a constant rotation of quarterbacks. Samuel has averaged 12.3 DraftKings points per game in his first season in Washington, hauling in 68 catches for 639 receiving yards and six touchdowns.
While he hasn’t scored since the team’s Week 12 bye week, Samuel continues to get looks in the red zone, and if the Commanders are able to put up points against the struggling Dallas defense, it’s a good pick that Samuel gets at least one of the scores.
The Cowboys have allowed more DraftKings points per game to wide receivers than any other team in the NFL. Receivers have 26 touchdowns in 15 games against the Cowboys, while averaging 174.3 receiving yards per game.
Deebo was injured for the first matchup between these teams, but his steady involvement gives him big potential on Christmas, despite the fact that he’s working with an unproven connection with Josh Johnson. Johnson is enough of a veteran, though, that he should understand the value of finding Samuel in space and letting Deebo do his thing after the catch.
Don’t forget to check out our SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
NFL DFS Tight End Picks
Top Ceiling: Jake Ferguson at Washington Commanders – $4,300 on DraftKings, $6,200 on FanDuel
Ferguson matches the most Pro Trends of all tight ends on both sites, and he also has the highest ceiling, median, and floor projections on both DraftKings and FanDuel. He also has the highest Plus/Minus projection at tight end on each site as well.
Ferguson has been a reliable part of the Cowboys’ passing game most of the season, racking up 80 catches for 589 yards and seven touchdowns this season. He hasn’t scored a touchdown since Week 11, but he did beat the Commanders for two touchdowns in Week 7 on his way to 21.9 DraftKings points.
Since he has at least four targets in seven straight games, he brings a solid floor to go with his high ceiling, and he’s in a favorable matchup as well, since the Commanders have been the best tight end matchup this season of the six teams on the Christmas Day slate.
Top Value: Evan Engram at Kansas City Chiefs – $3,000 on DraftKings, $5,000 on FanDuel
While the Broncos DST is probably the best play from the late game that doesn’t have a ton of fantasy options, Engram also deserves a look since he has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus of all tight ends on DraftKings, where he has a 96% Bargain Rating.
Engram has been a fringe contributor in his role as the Broncos’ starting tight end, producing 6.4 DraftKings points per game on the season. He has only totaled five catches in the last three weeks, but he did have six catches in Week 13 against the Commanders and four catches for 33 yards in his first game this year against the Chiefs, back in Week 11.
While he hasn’t been nearly as consistently involved as Ferguson and only has one touchdown, Engram does have very nice upside for a play at only $3,000, and he could be the late-night Christmas delivery you need to push your lineup over the top.
Pictured: Dak Prescott
Photo Credit: Imagn
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