Somehow we’re already and Week 9, and it opens with a doozy. Tennessee travels to the Steel City to face the Steelers for Thursday night football at 8:15 p.m. ET. The Steelers are listed as 3-point home favorites, while the total sits at 37 points.
Don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand build your DFS lineups or our Lineup Optimizer for those of you who like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
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NFL DFS Stud Picks
The trade deadline has come and gone, and despite rumors of a firesale, the Titans kept both of their studs, Derrick Henry and DeAndre Hopkins. They lead the way on this showdown slate, with the two of them over $1,500 more expensive than the next closest player on DraftKings.
With Will Levis under center, Pittsburgh opted to pound the rock. Henry saw 22 carries for 101 yards while catching four of four targets for 21 yards. He may not have as much juice as we’ve seen in years past, but the workload is still as strong as ever.
This matchup is appetizing, as Pittsburgh has allowed the seventh-most yards per carry and 10th-most DraftKings points to opposing running backs. The Rams and Jaguars backs combined for 318 yards and two touchdowns against Pittsburgh over the past two weeks.
Hopkins had a hyper-efficient performance in Levis’ first start, catching four of six targets for 128 yards and three touchdowns. He’s been fairly boom or bust all season, with five games below 14 DraftKings points and two above 25.
He leads the team in target share, air yards share, and first-read target share. Pittsburgh has allowed the fifth-most DraftKings points to opposing receivers on the year, so like Henry, it’s hard to poke holes in Hopkins. I prefer Henry, but Hopkins will likely be far cheaper.
Levis’ box score looks good from last week, with 26.62 DraftKings points. However, some of this is likely unsustainable, as one of the touchdowns came from a complete-blown coverage, and the other was potentially (definitely) pass interference on DeAndre Hopkins.
He was abysmal on third downs and under pressure, averaging 3.6 and 3.8 yards per attempt, respectively. Pittsburgh could be susceptible to big plays, but their pass rush could lead to a long night for Levis. Regardless, he’s a quarterback on a showdown slate.
Kenny Pickett comes in cheaper than Levis but is the highest-projecting player on the slate. He left last week’s matchup with a rib injury but practiced in full on Wednesday and should be good to go.
It’s been a rough year for Pickett, with one game above 15.5 DraftKings points and not topping 20 points a single time.
Still, he’s a home-favorite quarterback on a one-game slate. Tennessee has been very stout against the run, so Pittsburgh may opt for a more pass-heavy approach.
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NFL DFS Midrange Picks
George Pickens and Diontae Johnson headline the midrange section, and my preference is the cheaper one in Johnson. He’s coming off of a 14-target performance, catching eight balls for 85 yards.
Pickens caught one of five targets for 22 yards and a touchdown. He’s certainly more of a big play threat and makes a lot of sense in tournaments. Johnson just projects better for less money, and I’m expecting Pittsburgh to have to throw a lot against this stout Tennessee front.
If you run 150 lineups in the new SimLabs tool on FantasyLabs, you’ll get heavy exposure to Johnson (depending on your settings). He appears underpriced for his role, so the sims will likely lead to a lot of Johnson.
Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren make up potentially the least-daunting rushing attack in the entire league. Harris took seven carries for 13 yards last week, while Warren ran five times for 19 yards.
Their usage through the air was more promising, each seeing five targets. Harris caught five balls for 42 yards, while Warren caught four balls for 19 yards. Their showdown prices are now very close, and I have a slight lean toward Harris, although Warren is the more explosive back. Touchdowns will reign king on tonight’s slate (in my opinion), and I’m more confident in Harris finding paydirt than Warren.
Tyjae Spears has mostly been used in very negative game scripts, which likely won’t be the case tonight. Tennessee is an underdog but of only a field goal with a total below 40. It’s tough to envision one of these teams blowing out the other, and Henry dominates the touches in close games. He’s off my radar tonight.
Chig Okonkwo caught four of six targets for 23 yards last week while dropping a ball that would’ve led to a long gain. He ran a route on 75% of the dropbacks, which is a promising development, putting him squarely in play for tonight.
Treylon Burks ran a route on just over 50% of the dropbacks last week and saw two targets. He sets up as a nice deep threat with a wide range of outcomes. Burks provides upside for tournaments but could legitimately airball.
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine ran four fewer routes than Burks, catching one ball for 33 yards and a touchdown. I prefer Burks to him, and Kyle Phillips, who I’ll get to later.
NFL DFS Value & Punt Picks
- Defenses & Kickers: These options are always in play in the single-game format, but make sure to correlate the rest of your lineup around them. Given the expected low-scoring nature, these options may appear to be more optimal.
- Connor Heyward ($2,800 on DraftKings, $7,500 on FanDuel): Connor Heyward stepped in for Pat Freiermuth and has run a route on the majority of the dropbacks over the past two weeks. He saw six targets and caught five balls last week, giving reason for optimism.
- Allen Robinson II ($2,200 on DraftKings, $7,000 on FanDuel): Robinson has run a route on 71% of the dropbacks with Diontae Johnson healthy, which leaves him viable for showdowns. He’s seen just 9% of team targets, so he likely has to get a touchdown to pay off.
- Kyle Philips ($800 on DraftKings, $6,000 on FanDuel): Philips ran a route on 48% of dropbacks last week and seen six targets in his three healthy games. He’s a very viable salary-relief piece and will make a lot of lineups work.
