This Thursday, the NBA has a handful of solid matchups on the board, providing a good DFS fantasy basketball slate with plenty of options. Of the 10 teams taking the floor, only the Nets are playing for the second night in a row, while the Celtics, Lakers, 76ers, Raptors, and Jazz will turn around and play again on Friday. We already know of a few key injury absences, and be sure to check back for updates to our models as injury reports come out throughout the day.
Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs tools and projections.
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Note: Projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly.
Consult the NBA Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
NBA DFS Point Guard Picks
Stud
Tyrese Maxey has the top median, ceiling, and floor projections on the entire slate this Thursday, as he and the 76ers host the Warriors. Maxey is the most expensive player who is projected to play on the whole slate, but he still makes sense to build around since he has been so impressive this season and brings so much potential upside.
The Sixers listed Joel Embiid (knee) as doubtful, while Paul George (knee) and Quentin Grimes (calf) are questionable. Whoever has been available this year, though, it has been Maxey who has led the way for Philadelphia. He’s averaging 32.5 points, 7.5 assists, 4.8 rebounds, and 55.2 DraftKings points per game in his 20 games, while playing 40 minutes per game and posting a team-high 31.1% usage rate.
Maxey has a favorable matchup at home against the Warriors, who won’t have Stephen Curry (quad) and possibly Jimmy Butler (knee) and Jonathan Kuminga (ankle), who are questionable. Maxey should be able to take it at the rest of the Warriors’ backcourt and post a big number, which is why he has the top spot in our projections for Thursday.
Value
The Celtics are also in a great matchup as they visit the Wizards in Washington. In that contest, Payton Pritchard has the highest Plus/Minus projection of all players on Thursday’s entire slate. His Celtics have the second-highest implied team total on the board, according to our Vegas Dashboard.
Pritchard went off for 42 points and 52.25 DraftKings points on Saturday against the Cavaliers and has over 40 DraftKings points in five of his last nine contests. He’s averaging 32.1 DraftKings points per game on the year but has shown a higher ceiling when he’s the focus of the offense.
The Celtics could lean on him more this Thursday since the Wizards have been especially generous to point guards, allowing more DraftKings points per game to the position than any other team in the NBA. While Jaylen Brown (illness) has been carrying the offense lately, he’s listed as doubtful for this matchup against Washington, so there will be extra work available for Pritchard and the rest of the Celtics in this premium matchup, making them a key stack to consider and a great source of value across the board.
Fast Break
The Lakers are in action on Thursday, taking on the Raptors in Toronto, but they’ll be without superstar point guard Luka Doncic (personal). His absence will make a huge impact in the rotation, especially with Marcus Smart (injury management) also out, leaving Gabe Vincent and Bronny James carrying a lot of the workload at point guard and other members of the Lakers highlighted below to carry more of the offensive workload.
Keyonte George has exceeded salary-based expectations in seven of his last nine games and bounced back from an illness-impacted scoreless game against the Rockets. He had 28 points, eight assists, four rebounds, and 45 DraftKings points in the rematch in Utah on Monday and has at least 45 DraftKings points in four straight and six of his last seven if we throw out that zero-point effort last Saturday.
If you’re looking for a bargain option, Ben Saraf of the Nets is only $3,500. The rookie from South Africa has played 10 games for the Nets this season and has played significant minutes over the last week. He had 22 DraftKings points last Saturday when Egor Demin sat out with his foot injury, and depending on who is available for the second night of the back-to-back, Saraf could be lined up for more work once again. He has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus of all point guards, behind only Pritchard on Thursday.
Don’t forget to check out our NBA SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks
Stud
Shooting guard is stuffed with stud options on Thursday night, and one star who should be poised for a busy night is Austin Reaves of the Lakers, who has the second-highest ceiling, median, and floor projections at the position and has a better Plus/Minus than Anthony Edwards since his salary is so much lower for a similar set of projections.
Luka Doncic has missed four games this season, and Reaves played three of those games, averaging 67.2 DraftKings points in 39.3 minutes per game with a team-high 35.2% usage rate. He had at least 57 DraftKings points in each of those three games.
It’s definitely worth noting that LeBron James was also out for all of those games, while he’ll play on Thursday. Even though it isn’t an ideal matchup and James will be there to help carry the load, getting Reaves at only $8,300 seems like a steal, since he brings such a high floor and ceiling with Luka out.
Value
Brown’s expected absence makes Derrick White stand out as an elite value with a high ceiling in both the FantasyLabs projections and in the ShotQuality projections. White has the highest Projected Plus/Minus at the position in both sets of projections, even higher than Reaves’ Plus/Minus projection without Luka.
White definitely gets a boost from playing the Wizards as well, and like Reaves, he has shown he can go off when the team needs him to carry more work. Brown hasn’t missed any games this season, but when he is off the court, White has picked up over eight percentage points of usage to a team-high 31.6%, and he has produced 1.07 DraftKings points per minute in that scenario.
On Tuesday, White had 22 points and 36 DraftKings points alongside Brown in a win over the Knicks, and he has over 34 DraftKings points in three of his last four games and 11 of his last 13. He has a very high floor and should be able to deliver closer to his high ceiling with the extra work he takes on in this smash matchup.
Fast Break
Timberwolves guard Anthony Edwards has the highest ceiling, median, and floor projection at shooting guard as his Timberwolves face the Pelicans in a very favorable spot. His salary is much higher than Reaves’ or White’s, since he typically gets the high usage they’ll be stepping into due to the absences on their teams. He could end up being a leverage play, though, if everyone flocks to the cheaper options. He always brings both a high ceiling and a high floor in his starring role for the Wolves.
With so many good high-priced plays, this doesn’t seem to be the ideal spot to go cheap, but if you do, Anfernee Simons of the Celtics has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus of all shooting guards in the FantasyLabs projections, while Tyrese Martin has the second-highest in the ShotQuality projections. Both could end up with larger roles due to the injury absences.
Without Steph Curry, the Warriors could turn more to Gary Payton II, who has stepped up with 38.75 and 26.25 DraftKings points in the last two games. If Jimmy Butler also ends up sidelined, Payton would have an even clearer path to playing time and has proven he can chip in meaningful contributions when minutes are available.
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NBA DFS Small Forward Picks
Stud
With Zion Williamson (adductor) out again for a while and Herbert Jones (calf) also sidelined Thursday, Saddiq Bey is a great option to build around at small forward. Bey has the second-highest ceiling, median, and floor projections at small forward in both sets of projections, and he also has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus at this spot.
Bey has exceeded salary-based expectations in six straight games, producing at least 33 DraftKings points in each contest and averaging 42 DraftKings points per game over that stretch.
He had 22 points and 33 DraftKings points on Tuesday in the first of his team’s back-to-back games against the Timberwolves, and he’ll look to put up even better numbers in the rematch. He had four double-doubles in his last six games, and he has that kind of potential on Thursday, which makes him a great value and stud play under $7,000.
Value
With a salary under $4,000, Sam Hauser has the highest Projected Plus/Minus at small forward in both sets of projections. Hauser has been boom-or-bust and can be very streaky, but with Brown out, he should step into a bigger role and could even move into the starting lineup.
Hauser had 33.5 DraftKings points last Saturday against the Timberwolves and 18.75 DraftKings points on Sunday in the second game of the back-to-back. He played a smaller role on Tuesday with just 19 minutes but still had 15.5 DraftKings points. The Celtics gave rookie Hugo Gonzalez a little more run in that game against the Knicks due to the matchup, but Hauser should return to his normal role on Thursday.
Hauser typically offers more offensive upside than the other Celtics’ forwards, and he is a great value play to consider at either forward spot if you spend up at guard on some of the big names discussed above. He makes a ton of sense, especially in this matchup against the Wizards.
Fast Break
While he isn’t the best value on the slate since his salary has climbed to $8,400, Michael Porter Jr. brings a very high ceiling as the focal point of the Nets’ offense. He has the highest median, ceiling, and floor projection at small forward in both sets of projections, and he has 35 and 33 points in his last two games, totaling 56.2 and 61.5 DraftKings points. He has a great matchup against the Jazz, who allow the third-most fantasy points per game to opposing small forwards
Jaden McDaniels is a solid mid-range option at small forward, after he posted 30.5 DraftKings points against the Pelicans on Tuesday. He’s very reliable and contributes solid minutes for Minnesota in just about every matchup. He has lots of offensive upside when his shot gets going as well.
With RJ Barrett (knee) still out for the Raptors, Ja’Kobe Walter and Gradey Dick are wing options that bring boom-or-bust upside if you opt to go cheap at the position and don’t want to over-stack the Celtics.
NBA DFS Power Forward Picks
Stud
Without Luka, look for LeBron James to carry a big part of the offense for the Lakers this Thursday night in Toronto. He has the top ceiling, median, and floor projections at power forward and a top-10 Projected Plus/Minus at the position as well.
James has played five games since his delayed start to the season and has produced 15.2 points, 4.0 rebounds, 7.2 assists, and 32.9 DraftKings points in 32 minutes per game. He’s putting up 1.02 DraftKings points per minute, but that number jumps to 1.33 DraftKings points per minute in the time he has played with Luka off the floor.
LeBron could carry the night with a huge total of assists, or he could carry the load scoring; either way, though, he’ll be a top pay-up option at power forward with a very high ceiling. He still may not be fully ramped up to 100%, but he has shown enough form to be the top stud to pay up for at power forward on this slate.
Value
A great matchup against the Wizards, and the absence of Jaylen Brown caused the Celtics’ bargain options to rise to the top of the value projections at power forward as well. Josh Minott, Hauser, and Jordan Walsh are the top three Plus/Minus projections at power forward in the Shot Quality projections, while Hauser, Minott, and Walsh all rank in the top four in the FantasyLabs projections, with only Sandro Mamukelashvili breaking up the Boston options at the top of the value outlooks.
Walsh has been especially interesting in the last few games for Boston, as the third-year forward continues to fill a meaningful role in the starting five. He had a season-high 35.2 DraftKings points on Sunday with 14 points and 11 rebounds against the Cavs. He followed that up with 21 DraftKings points on eight points and six rebounds against the Knicks, but most of that production came in crunch time of a close game.
The Wizards allow the second-most fantasy points per game to power forwards, so Walsh is definitely a bargain to consider along with Minott and Hauser. Walsh is a little more steady, although Hauser is typically the streakier shooter.
Fast Break
The ShotQuality projections point to Jimmy Butler as a strong option if he plays through his questionable tag in a revenge game against the 76ers. The FantasyLabs projections have Butler near the top as well but prefer Julius Randle against the Pelicans. Randle’s production has tailed off a little bit since a fast start to the season, but he always brings a very high ceiling, especially in a good spot like this against the Pelicans.
Mamukelashvili has been solid for the Raptors when Jakob Poeltl (rest) has been out, and with the big man resting on Thursday, Mamu will be a solid value option even against the Lakers, who have done a good job this season against opposing bigs.
After a slow start to the season, Kyle Filipowski is starting to find his groove and should get plenty of playing time as the Jazz take on the Nets in Brooklyn. Filipowski has exceeded salary-based expectations in nine of his last 13 games and is coming off two solid games against the Rockets that earned him 28 and 26.75 DraftKings points.
NBA DFS Center Picks
Stud
Center is a very interesting spot on this five-game slate with no options over $6,600, but seven players with a salary of $6,000. From that crowded bunch at the top, Nic Claxton of the Nets has the highest ceiling, median, and floor projections of all the centers in both sets of projections.
Claxton has been very up-and-down this season for the Nets, but he has been very good in their last two games, with 41.25 DraftKings points in a win over the Hornets on Monday and 47 DraftKings points in their win over the Bulls on Wednesday to start their back-to-back.
He has shown a very high ceiling while averaging 1.08 DraftKings points per minute this season, and he also leads the Nets in minutes played. He has great upside against the Jazz, who have struggled to defend centers this season, especially since the injury to Walker Kessler. Claxton can be boom-or-bust, but as long as the injury report is clear for the second night of the back-to-back, he brings plenty of upside to build around this Thursday as well.
Value
Against the Wizards, Neemias Queta has the highest Plus/Minus projection on the entire slate in the ShotQuality projections, and he also has the highest Projected Plus/Minus at the position in the FantasyLabs projections.
Queta had a ceiling game with 19 points and 18 boards on his way to 46 DraftKings points, and he also had a double-double with 16 points, 12 rebounds, and 39 DraftKings points against the Nets a couple of weeks ago.
He can be a little boom-or-bust as well since he doesn’t have a huge offensive game, but he can rack up good numbers throwing down lobs and rolling off screens. He had 15 points, 12 boards, and 43 DraftKings points against the Wizards in their last meeting, and at $5,300, he comes in at a savings compared to that crowded group of centers at the top.
With all the value options on the Celtics in a smash spot against the Wizards, it looks like a great day to go green this Thursday.
Fast Break
Rookie center Derik Queen has been excellent for the Pelicans this year and should stay very busy on Thursday with both Williamson and Yves Missi (foot, ankle) ruled out. With both out on Tuesday, Queen had 21 points, eight rebounds, six assists, and 41 DraftKings points in 31 minutes against the Wolves. He’s a great alternative to Claxton if you can deal with the variance that always exists when playing boom-or-bust rookies.
For the Nets, Danny Wolf has been getting enough playing time to be a bargain to check out at center or power forward on this slate. Especially if Claxton or other bigs sit on the second night of the back-to-back, Wolf brings good upside. He had 22 points and 36.5 DraftKings points on Saturday against the Bucks and 20.75 DraftKings points on Monday against Charlotte. If he’s lined up for playing time when the Nets’ injury report drops, he is definitely a bargain play that can help you build around the stars you want in other spots.
Pictured: Austin Reaves
Photo Credit: Imagn
