NFL DFS Week 1 DraftKings Main Slate Look Ahead: Early Values in Our Projections

The NFL is back to fill up our Sundays with plenty of football for the next few months, and the first full slate of the new season is set for this Sunday on DraftKings. After a couple of games early in the week, the Sunday afternoon main slate contains 12 games. Eight of those 12 games kick off at 1:00 p.m. ET, with four games in the second wave, which kicks off at 4:25 p.m. ET. It’s our first look at the new looks for many of these teams, and we’ll start to get a better idea of how all the familiar faces fit into their new places this week.

The Los Angeles Chargers have the highest implied team total on the board as they host the Cardinals, with the Lions and Bengals close behind. The Buccaneers-Bengals matchup has the highest over/under on the slate, followed by the Saints-Lions as the only other game with a total over 49 points. While kickoff is still a few days away, it’s never too early to start strategizing for your NFL DFS lineups for Week 1. Even in the middle of the week, some potential values are already popping in our early projections, and you definitely want to have these values on your radar.

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Throughout the season, every Wednesday, I’ll be taking a look at the players who are standing out as top values for the coming week by using the early projections in our NFL Player Models. Of course, these models update frequently.

Things will likely change between now and Sunday, but it’s still good to have a plan of attack.

If there’s news between now and lock — and there will be — the models will update to reflect that.

As always, they’re powered by Sean Koerner — one of the most accurate fantasy rankers in the industry.

And don’t forget about the tools that FantasyLabs has to offer, like our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.

Or you can just use our NFL DFS sims to effortlessly create advanced lineups.

Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace.

You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:

NFL DFS Quarterback Values

Kyler Murray ($5,500) Minnesota Vikings (-1.5) vs. Green Bay Packers (46.5 total)

Murray will make his Vikings debut in a rivalry game at home against the Packers, and he has the highest Projected Plus/Minus at quarterback in the 50/50 blend of Koerner’s and Carty’s projections. He has the top spot in THE BLITZ projections and the third-highest in the FantasyLabs projections.

Murray was a strong fantasy producer for many seasons with the Cardinals, bringing both rushing potential and the ability to take deep shots down the field. Last year, though, he was limited to just five games. In those five games, he averaged 16.4 DraftKings points per contest, running for one touchdown while averaging 34.6 rushing yards and 192.4 passing yards per game.

Murray earned the starting job for the Vikings by beating out J.J. McCarthy and will make his first start in the QB-friendly system of coach Kevin O’Connell. Not only is he in a passer-friendly system with plenty of opportunity to excel in his new home, but he also gets a major upgrade in playmakers at his skill positions.

Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, and free-agent addition Jauan Jennings are all ready to roll at the start of the year, while Tai Felton also impressed in training camp and preseason. T.J. Hockenson will also be very involved, giving Murray plenty of pass-catchers to spread the ball around to in KOC’s system.

It’s not an ideal matchup against the Packers’ defense, but Murray still brings enough dual-threat upside to be a good value play at this very affordable salary in Week 1.

NFL DFS Wide Receiver Values

Tre Tucker ($4,000) Las Vegas Raiders (-3.5) vs. Miami Dolphins (40.5 total)

The Raiders and Dolphins face off in one of the later games, with both teams starting all-new eras with new coaches, new QBs, and new offensive systems. Both teams have plenty of low-cost players, and Tucker has the second-highest Plus/Minus projection of all receivers in Koerner’s projections and the fourth-highest in THE BLITZ projections.

Tucker showed a very high ceiling last year, but he was also very inconsistent. His best game of the season was a massive 43.9 DraftKings points in Week 3 against the Commanders, when he scored three touchdowns and totaled 145 receiving yards. He only had two other touchdowns all year, though, and was held under 50 receiving yards in each of his last 11 games to close out the year.

Tucker’s struggles were due in part to his shaky QB play and the struggles of the offense as a whole, and now he’ll have a huge chance to step up as the team’s No. 1 option with Kirk Cousins ($5,000) under center and coach Klint Kubiak leading the offense. Tucker’s workload got another potential boost midweek, when the team lost Brock Bowers (knee) for a game or two, leaving even more targets available.

The Raiders added Jalen Nailor ($4,300) and will look to Michael Mayer ($2,900) to step up for some of Bowers’ work, but Tucker has a higher ceiling than those options due to his big-play potential. He is still high-risk since he’ll be working in a new system with a new QB, but he brings the potential to overcome those obstacles, especially if he gets so many targets.

Tucker looked sharp in the preseason, hauling in all five of his targets for five catches and 46 yards while working in limited time with the starters. He has a chance to be the team’s top option, and since they’re taking on the Dolphins, that could result in a big game.

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NFL DFS Running Back Values

MarShawn Lloyd ($4,800) Green Bay Packers (+1.5) at Minnesota Vikings (46.5 total)

For our top running back value play, we’ll head back to that NFC North showdown in Week 1, where MarShawn Lloyd is expected to be the Packers’ primary running back. Lloyd has the fourth-highest Projected Plus/Minus of all running backs this week in the aggregate projections and in Koerner’s projections. The other options ahead of him are all $7,000 or more, so his affordability makes him an option that has to be considered.

The Packers will be without Josh Jacobs (personal) for the start of the season since he is on the Commissioner’s Exempt List while he deals with a legal matter. Without Jacobs, the Packers will likely use a committee of MarShawn Lloyd, Chris Brooks ($4,500), and Kaleb Johnson ($4,400), with Lloyd the favorite to get most of the work in Week 1.

Lloyd flashed his upside as both a ball carrier and pass catcher throughout training camp and the preseason, but the third-round pick from USC has been limited to only one career game back in 2024. He ran for 15 yards on six carries while adding a three-yard catch on his only target.

While his durability is definitely a concern for managers counting on him in season-long fantasy, he’s worth taking a flier on at this price in one-week contests on DraftKings. If he is the top option in the backfield as expected, he’ll have a high ceiling against the Vikings since both teams have offenses that can put up points when they’re rolling.

Even though he’s an unknown who brings risk, Lloyd is projected to be one of the top values in the backfield and stands out as the option under $5,000 with the clearest path to playing time.

NFL DFS Tight End Values

Michael Mayer ($2,900) Las Vegas Raiders (-3.5) vs. Miami Dolphins (40.5 total)

Bowers’ injury totally changes the tight end outlook for this week, vaulting Mayer to the top of the Plus/Minus projections in both sets used in this post. The Raiders’ offense revolves around Bowers when he’s at his best, and his absence leaves behind plenty of opportunities, especially for Tucker and Mayer.

Mayer played four games without Bowers last year, logging over 90% of the snaps in each of those four games. He totaled 18 catches on 24 targets and racked up 196 receiving yards and a touchdown, averaging 10.9 DraftKings points in those four games. His busiest game was in Week 16 against the Giants, when he hauled in nine of 10 targets for 89 yards.

The second-round pick from Notre Dame has flashed upside when given an expanded role, and Kirk Cousins and Klint Kubiak will be counting on him to step up this week in a very favorable matchup against Miami. Last year, the Dolphins gave up the third-most DraftKings points per game to tight ends, so expect Cousins to look Mayer’s way early and often in Sunday’s game. With the possibility of such heavy volume, he should have no trouble returning value at this salary under $3,000.

Pictured: Michael Mayer
Photo Credit: Imagn