This article is a data-driven deep dive on strategic decision-making and roster construction for DFS cash games and tournaments. It relies heavily upon FantasyLabs’ extensive suite of analytical DFS tools, as well as advanced metrics and film study. First, I walk through narrowing down the player pool at each position. Then, I lay out how to choose the highest-floor lineup combinations for cash games. Finally, I go game-by-game to present the biggest edges (stacks, pivots, leverage opportunities, etc.) in each.
Week 9 shmoney time.
- Russell Wilson, Seahawks ($7,100 DK, $8,600 FD) vs. TB
Russell Wilson aka The God QB aka the consensus No. 1 QB aka the QB with the top projected floor, median, and ceiling in our NFL Player Models gets a matchup with the pass-funneling Bucs, who rank No 1 in Football Outsiders defensive rushing DVOA but No. 26 against the pass. The injury to starting center Justin Britt (knee, IR) is a concern for Wilson, the other top values at the position — Derek Carr and Philip Rivers — are missing their starting centers as well, and in Wilson’s case, interior O-line issues are likely to result in him abandoning the pocket and either scramble or launch out-of-structure bombs downfield, both of which would work to the benefit of his fantasy output.
Wilson is projected for a Plus/Minus above 3, and QBs at home projected for a Plus/Minuses of 3 or more at home have posted a 72% Consistency Rating and an average Plus/Minus of +4.6 since the start of last season.
For more on QBs, check out Matthew Freedman’s Week 9 Fantasy QB Breakdown.