This article is a data-driven deep dive on strategic decision-making and roster construction for DFS cash games and tournaments. It relies heavily upon FantasyLabs’ large suite of analytical DFS tools, as well as advanced metrics and film study. First, I walk through narrowing down the player pool at each position. Then, I lay out how to choose the highest-floor lineup combinations for cash games. Finally, I go game-by-game to present the biggest edges (stacks, pivots, leverage opportunities, etc.) in each.
Week 4 shmoney time.
- Patrick Mahomes ($7,500 DK, $9,200 FD) at DET
While Daniel Jones qualifies as a Tier 1 option on DraftKings and Lamar Jackson qualifies as a Tier 1 option on FanDuel thanks to their respective Projected Plus/Minuses in our NFL Player Models, there’s enough value to lock in Patrick Mahomes, who has scored 91.8 DK points and 88.3 FD points more than any other QB since the start of 18. Per Bet Labs, Chiefs road overs are 39-27-1 under Andy Reid (9-2 with Mahomes), covering by an average of 4.2 points, and the Chiefs are 33-16-1 against the spread on the road with Reid (8-2-1) with Mahomes, covering by an average of 5.0 points. Russell Wilson is the top option on the afternoon-only slate.
For more on QBs, check out Matthew Freedman’s NFL Week 4 Fantasy QB Breakdown.