The Player Models are the lifeblood of our NFL product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. After all, a projection is just part of the equation: salary, ceiling, and projected ownership all factor into which players stand out as the best plays each week.
Let’s dive into our models and look at a few players with the highest ceilings and values for Week 2.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the week after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
NFL DFS Quarterback Picks
Top Ceiling: Derek Carr vs. Arizona Cardinals – $6,200 on DraftKings, $7,300 on FanDuel
Las Vegas Raiders quarterback Derek Carr projects for the highest ceiling, facing a team in the Arizona Cardinals, who rank last in defensive DVOA, according to Football Outsiders.
Carr leads the Raiders, who are a 5.5-point home favorite and are playing in a Week 2 matchup with shootout potential currently, a 51.5-point total. Last week, Carr and the Raiders were one of the more pass-heavy teams, using a 77%/23% pass-to-run play-calling scheme against the Los Angeles Chargers.
Look for superstar wideout Davante Adams to be the main beneficiary in the Raiders’ passing scheme, seeing 17 targets and a 48% target share as a top stacking option.
Looking at THE BLITZ, Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson again projects for the highest ceiling against the Miami Dolphins in Week 2. The dual-threat quarterback looks to have a less-than-ideal matchup, facing a Dolphins defense that is ranked ninth in defensive DVOA, and as a slight 3.5-point favorite, look for Jackson to likely target wide receiver Rashod Bateman and tight end Mark Andrews and use his skillful rushing ability.
Top Value: Trey Lance vs. Seattle Seahawks – $5,700 on DraftKings, $7,500 on FanDuel
After a sloppy Week 1 win at Chicago, San Francisco 49ers quarterback Trey Lance projects to be a top value, priced at a discounted $5,700 on DraftKings. Lance and the ‘Niners are currently a massive nine-point home favorite against the Seattle Seahawks, who ranked 23rd in DVOA, and are coming off a short Week 1 loss to the Denver Broncos on Monday night and just lost Jamal Adams for the season.
Like Jackson, Lance is a dual-threat option, leading an offense that last year ran a run-heavy 46%/54% pass-to-run ratio at a 28 seconds-per-snap pace. Keep an eye on wide receiver Deebo Samuel, who should see the bulk of targets from Lance and should be the default stacking option, priced at $7,800 on DraftKings and $8,000 on FanDuel, and should also see involvement in the running game.
According to PFF, Seattle ranks 25th in overall defense, which should allow the 49ers to move the ball down the field in this NFC West rivalry.
NFL DFS Running Back Picks
Top Ceiling: Jonathan Taylor at Jacksonville Jaguars – $9,900 on DraftKings, $10,000 on FanDuel
The most expensive running back on the slate, Indianapolis Colts running back Jonathan Taylor again projects for the highest ceiling, facing a Jacksonville Jaguars defense that ranked 17th in DVOA and could easily produce an 85th-percentile outcome.
In a Week 1 tie with the Houston Texans, Taylor had 31 rushing attempts for 161 yards and one touchdown. An integral part of the Colts’ offense, Taylor also factors into the passing game, seeing seven targets, and catching four passes for 14 yards.
The Colts are a four-point favorite against Jaguars and expect Taylor to play a significant role in moving the Colts offense forward and could see additional carries toward the end of the game if Matt Ryan and the Colts are ahead. Don’t forget his ability to easily reach the 100-yard rushing bonus, further adding his ability to reach an 85th-percentile outcome.
Top Value: Darrell Henderson Jr. vs Atlanta Falcons – $5,700 on DraftKings, $6,200 on FanDuel
Darrell Henderson Jr. should likely continue his production as the top producer for the Los Angeles Rams, making him a top value at the running back position. In the opening-day game against the Buffalo Bills, Henderson had 13 carries for 47 yards and also played a role in the Rams’ passing game, catching five passes for 26 yards.
Henderson’s value on DraftKings should make him a popular option, especially facing a weak Falcons defense ranked last in rushing DVOA.
Look for Henderson to be a viable one-off play, creating salary relief for higher-priced stacks. Further, the Rams are a mass 10-point home favorite, which should create upside for Henderson to see more volume in a clock-killing situation and should be a popular choice for rosters.
NFL DFS Wide Receiver Picks
Top Ceiling: Cooper Kupp vs. Atlanta Falcons – $9,900 on DraftKings, $9,700 on FanDuel
Cooper Kupp projects for the highest ceiling among wide receivers this week and has extreme potential to reach an 85th-percentile outcome in a matchup with the Atlanta Falcons.
A favorite target of quarterback Matthew Stafford, Kupp was targeted 15 times, catching 13 passes and found his way into the endzone once. Dating back to last season, Kupp scored at least one touchdown in 12 games, and look for Kupp to also be the first look in the red zone. In Week 1, Kupp was only targeted once but should continue to be the first look for Stafford (per AddMoreFunds).
Not only should the targets be there for Kupp, but a 100-receiving yard bonus is in store for the wideout, adding to his ceiling potential.
Top Value: Zay Jones vs. Indianapolis Colts – $4,300 on DraftKings, $5,500 on FanDuel
Jacksonville Jaguars wide receiver Zay Jones projects as a top value for Week 2 on DraftKings, priced at a low-$4,300 salary on DraftKings. As four-point home underdogs, quarterback Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars will look toward Jones and Christian Kirk, who appear to be the top targets and factor into a 70%/30% pass-to-run play-calling scheme.
In Week 1, Jones was targeted nine times, catching six passes for 65 yards and in facing the Colts, who rank 22nd in pass DVOA, should see plenty of looks, especially if Jacksonville expects to keep this game close.
With the lower salary — Jones makes a perfect bring-back choice for lineups rostering Jonathan Taylor — Jones’ low ownership projection makes him a perfect one-off play in tournaments.
NFL DFS Tight End Picks
Top Ceiling: Mark Andrews vs. Miami Dolphins – $6,400 on DraftKings, $7,400 on FanDuel
Baltimore Ravens tight end Mark Andrews projects for the highest ceiling in Week 2 and continues to be an elite option at the position. In Week 1’s 24-9 win over the New York Jets, Andrews was targeted seven times, leading the Ravens’ receiving corps, catching five passes for 52 yards. Despite a tough matchup against a Miami defense ranked ninth in pass DVOA, expect Andrews to be the first look for quarterback Lamar Jackson, responsible for 24% of the Ravens’ target share in Week 1.
With Baltimore currently a 3.5-point home favorite, the offense, which used a more balanced 59%/41% pass-to-run play-calling scheme, may depend on the passing game in what looks to be a tough matchup at home.
Top Value: Brevin Jordan at Denver Broncos – $2,600 on DraftKings, $4,700 on FanDuel
Brevin Jordan should continue to see production in the Houston Texans offense, even with splitting tight end duties with O.J. Howard, and also projects as a top value on DraftKings.
Led by quarterback Davis Mills, The Texans are a huge 10-point road underdog and will likely up their passing cadence against, using a slightly-pass-favored 60%/40% pass-to-run play-calling scheme.
Denver ranks 20th in pass DVOA and Houston’s up-tempo 24.8 second-per-snap pace could make this a closer-than-expected affair, which should signal opportunities for Jordan, despite a one-target performance in Week 1.