This article is a data-driven deep dive on strategic decision-making and roster construction for DFS cash games and tournaments. It relies heavily upon FantasyLabs’ extensive suite of analytical DFS tools, as well as advanced metrics and film study. First, I walk through narrowing down the player pool at each position. Then, I lay out how to choose the highest-floor lineup combinations for cash games. Finally, I go game-by-game to present the biggest edges (stacks, pivots, leverage opportunities, etc.) in each.
Week 17 shmoney time.
- Dak Prescott Cowboys ($6,300 DK, $8,000 FD) vs. WAS
Despite posting top-five QB numbers this season, Dak Prescott is priced outside the top five on both DraftKings and FanDuel, and thus is popping with the top Projected Plus/Minus for both sites in our NFL Player Models.
But this isn’t even about Dak. This is about the incredible rash of injuries that have struck Washington’s secondary, which will be without a whopping 10 players in total (11 if you count suspended cornerback Simeon Thomas), including every one of its starters. The biggest absence will be cornerback Quinton Dunbar, whose Pro Football Focus grade of 89.5 ranks No. 1 in the NFL among cornerbacks entering Week 17.
The Redskins’ starting secondary this week will consist of replacement-level talents such as Coty Sensabaugh (41.9), Aaron Colvin (44.9), and Jeremy Reaves (46.8), who have appeared in a combined 16 games on defense this season. And it wouldn’t be right if Washington’s highest-graded player left standing in the secondary, safety Troy Apke, wasn’t questionable with a knee injury after being downgraded from limited practice participation on Thursday to a DNP on Friday. The situation is so dire that I went against everything I stand for and placed a wager on Dallas -11 (you can view live odds here for every game, and follow all of my picks and track your own in the free Action Network App).