This article is a data-driven deep dive on strategic decision-making and roster construction for DFS cash games and tournaments. It relies heavily upon FantasyLabs’ extensive suite of analytical DFS tools, as well as advanced metrics and film study. First, I walk through narrowing down the player pool at each position. Then, I lay out how to choose the highest-floor lineup combinations for cash games. Finally, I go game-by-game to present the biggest edges (stacks, pivots, leverage opportunities, etc.) in each.
Week 15 shmoney time.
- Deshaun Watson, Texans ($6,800 DK, $8,200 FD) at TEN
With Lamar Jackson not available this week, Deshaun Watson slots in with the top median projection in our NFL Player Models and also leads all QBs in Projected Plus/Minus as he takes on the Titans in Tennessee as a 3-point underdog. Texans-Titans is this week’s best bet for a shootout: the slate-high over/under is 51.5 (view live odds) and the Titans are missing their top two cornerbacks (Malcolm Butler, Adoree’ Jackson) from a pass defense already ranked 23rd in schedule-adjusted efficiency per Football Outsiders DVOA, Houston’s pass defense has been even worse (27th), which raises his floor/ceiling and also helps explain why the Texans are underdogs. Watson has thrived under these types of circumstances in the past, posting a +6.05 Plus/Minus and 75% Consistency Rating in 12 games as a road underdog, according to our NFL Trends tool. In fact, Watson has hit value as the second highest rate (75%) among all QBs in our database, which dates back to 2014.