UFC Vegas 123 DFS Breakdown: Model, Preview, Picks for Moicano vs. Nolan, More Saturday Fights

We’re back at the Apex this weekend for a Halloween Fight Night, featuring a lightweight main event between Renato Moicano and Tom Nolan.

The 12-card slate locks at the usual 5:00 p.m. ET. Let’s get into the DFS angles.

We have built out a full player-projection model using the FantasyLabs Tools and Player Models to help put together some winning DFS lineups in the UFC. You can use our optimizer to build optimal lineups using these projections.

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The model, created by our own Sean Koerner, is based on 10,000 simulations of all the fights. He then pulled the DraftKings score from each bout to create floor, median, and ceiling projections for every fighter. Here is how he defined each projection:

• Floor: Fighter has an 80% chance of going over this score, 20% chance of going under
• Median: Fighter has a 50% chance of going over this score, 50% chance of going under
• Ceiling: Fighter has a 20% chance of going over this score, 80% chance of going under

These should give us a better sense of which fighters we should target based on the game type – maximizing ceiling in tournaments, for example.

You can check out the projections for every fighter on Saturday’s card in our UFC Models.

Main Event

Tom Nolan ($8,200) vs. Renato Moicano ($8,000)

This is overall a pretty lackluster card, but the main event is both an exciting and somewhat important fight. Longtime lightweight (and previously featherweight) mainstay Renato Moicano is defending his top-10 ranking against upstart Tom Nolan, who has won five straight fights since dropping his UFC debut.

This is something of a striker vs. grappler matchup, with “Money” Moicano playing the role of grappler. Four of his last five wins have been stoppages on the ground, with the other being a unanimous decision in which he landed three takedowns. He’s historically struggled against opponents with superior grappling: his last three losses have been to Beneil Dariush, Islam Makhachev, and Rafael Dos Anjos. He’s also now 37 years old and facing a younger, larger, and more athletic opponent in Nolan.

This fight likely comes down to two things: Nolan’s ability to prevent or escape from takedowns and who has the gas tank if the fight extends. Nolan has just a 58% takedown defense rate in the UFC but has been able to either reverse position, escape, or threaten with submissions when he’s taken down. Moicano’s high-level jiu-jitsu makes all of those options tougher, but the 26-year-old is certainly getting better each fight. He’s also a dangerous striker, using his 6’3″ frame well to maintain distance, and he has solid power. Moicano is starting to get a bit chinny and has three UFC knockout losses.

The cardio is a tougher aspect to judge, with Moicano having just one five-round fight and fading badly in it and Nolan not having any. Fortunately, the over/under in this fight is set at 1.5 rounds, which suggests things end quickly. That makes this a very strong tournament fight, since the winner probably gets there with a finish.

For cash games, I’m stacking it due to the upside of both men and my lack of confidence in the winner. The loser probably doesn’t score very well, but I’d rather deal with that than potentially miss the winner’s big score.

The Easy Chalk

Jacobe Smith ($8,800)

Former junior college national champion and D1 All-American Jacobe Smith is stepping in on short notice to save the co-main event this weekend, taking on 10-year UFC veteran Randy Brown ($7,400) in a welterweight bout. This is a big step up in competition for the undefeated 30-year-old, but one I believe he’s ready for.

Brown has long been a solid gatekeeper in the welterweight division, holding the line between ranked fighters and the rest of the division. He’s also now 36 and 1-3 over his last four, with his only win coming over a 40-year-old who nearly finished him in the first round.

Smith clearly has the talent to be a ranked fighter, with his elite wrestling and athleticism. He’s also developing as a striker, with his defense improving on a fight-by-fight basis. While Brown (still) has solid power, that might be the only edge he has left at this point.

Part of my read here is that the smaller cage at the UFC Apex should help Smith get this fight into close quarters and eventually to the ground, where he’ll have a large edge. Plus, he has multiple paths to upside: He’s -160 to get a stoppage, but an extended fight probably means he’s piling up takedowns and/or control time, which most of the slate’s pricey fighters don’t have going for them.

The Upside Plays

Joe Kropschot ($9,300)

Joe Kropschot was one of the more memorable fighters on this season’s Contender Series, not so much because he’s an elite prospect, but because of the grit, durability, and cardio he showed in taking over his fight down the stretch against an arguably more talented opponent. This week, he’s getting a potential step down in competition for his UFC debut, where he takes on Nick Klein ($6,900) in his return to the Apex.

Klein is 0-2 in the UFC with a pair of second-round knockout losses since his 2024 Contender Series win. He hasn’t put up much of a fight in either of those bouts, including against Andrey Pulyaev, who is 1-4 in the promotion with his only win over Klein. On the one hand, this could be viewed as the best chance for Klein to get a win and stick in the promotion; on the other, it’s a pretty soft debut opponent for Kropschot.

Kropschot is a solid -160 to win inside the distance, and given Klein’s propensity to fade in the second round, it seems somewhat likely that’s when it happens. Plus, Kropschot will mix in his grappling occasionally, which also helps his upside. He’s a slightly safer version of Smith with similar overall upside, albeit a lesser chance of getting there, but he’s a solid play for all contest types given his level of competition.

Zach Reese ($9,100)

Zach Reese welcomes Mickey Gall ($7,100) to middleweight on Halloween, after Gall was forced out of a planned September matchup due to not being medically cleared to fight. That’s not a great sign for Gall, for obvious reasons, especially since it was probably not a weight issue as he moved up 15 lbs from his previous home at welterweight.

Gall has had a strange UFC career, debuting in the promotion in just his second professional fight after winning the right to welcome pro wrestler CM Punk to the Octagon. Gall defeated Punk and Mike Jackson (no relation) in his first two UFC bouts, with Jackson known more as a combat sports photographer who was also (unsuccessfully) recruited in an effort to get a win for Punk. Gall has gone 4-7 against actual fighters in the decade-plus since then, including four straight losses.

Reese is no world-beater, but he’s 4-4 in the UFC against much tougher competition, and he’s -225 to finish this fight. I view most of his finish equity as extremely front-loaded (all but one of his career finishes came in the first round), with a fight going past Round 1 likely to see the judges. For that reason, he’s a somewhat risky choice, but the upside is there if he can get it done early.

The Value Play

Cody Durden ($7,900)

Cody Durden is a bit riskier than the fighters I typically list as value plays, with this section usually reserved for fighters who have a high floor thanks to their odds of at least lasting 15 minutes in a losing effort. That’s not quite the case for Durden, who takes on Ode Osbourne ($8,300) in a fight that is -200 to end inside the distance.

However, Durden has essentially flipped on the moneyline since DK released salaries and is now listed as a -118 favorite after opening as a slight underdog. With the main event taking up the $8,200/$8,000 salary slot for the slate’s closest-lined fight, Durden is effectively $300-$400 too cheap for his chance of winning the bout.

Plus, his likely method of victory works out very well for DFS. Durden is the grappling half of a very binary fight against the striker Osbourne, who has solid power but not much else going for him. Durden, who sports a USA wrestling tattoo, averages a bit under four takedowns per 15 minutes in the UFC.

It could be a sweaty few minutes for Durden, with Osbourne typically starting fast before fading down the stretch, but if he survives, he should be able to cruise to a victory. Plus, the smaller cage at the Apex typically favors grapplers, which is another slight boost here.

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The Contrarian Choice

Talita Alencar ($7,000)

Talita Alencar is one of the top handful of female BJJ competitors of all time, with three IBJJF world championships in no-gi competition plus one in the gi at black belt. Alongside fellow BJJ legends Mackenzie Dern and Bia Mesquita, she’s now also a ranked UFC fighter, with a 4-1 record in the promotion.

Like many jiu-jitsu converts, she has elite skills on the ground and tends to struggle with cardio in extended fights. Unlike many of them (notably Dern), she also has solid takedowns, which has been a huge boost to her UFC success. Her opponent this weekend is Piera Rodriguez ($9,200), a stronger wrestler who has landed at least one takedown in all of her fights.

If Rodriguez struggles to break tendency and looks to grapple here, she could be putting herself in a bad position against an elite submission artist. Rodriguez has two losses in the UFC, one via DQ and one via submission. She’s also never finished any of her wins, which gives Alencar a solid floor if the fight extends.

Women tend to be under-owned in general, and with this fight one of just two on the card favored to go the distance, she almost certainly will be here. That creates a solid opportunity, as she has an excellent price-considered shot at an upset while also bringing a very solid floor.

The Swing Fight

Jeong Yeong Lee ($8,600) vs. Julian Erosa ($7,600)

Julian “Juicy J” Erosa is calling it a career after UFC Vegas 123, with the 18-fight UFC veteran declaring this will be his last fight. Of those 18 fights, just five have seen a decision, with five of his last six contests ending in the first round.

Erosa is a fairly standard “kill or be killed” fighter, averaging over six significant strikes per minute, but with a negative striking differential and a sub-50% striking defense rate. That makes for a fun matchup with “The Korean Tiger,” who brings a similar style – if not more durability – to the cage. JeongYeong Lee has largely been stifled by grapplers but should have a willing dance partner for a brawl on Saturday.

These fighters are appropriately priced for their odds of winning, with the younger Lee also having superior durability at this point in their careers. Both could score well if the brawl extends into the later rounds, but the likeliest outcome is somebody finding a quick finish: this fight is (roughly) tied with Reese/Gall for the shortest odds to end inside the distance on the slate.

I want exposure to both sides of this one in most of my lineups, with a lean towards Lee in spots where I can afford him.

Pictured: Jacobe Smith
Photo Credit: Imagn Images