This series uses the FantasyLabs Tools to analyze three key MLB players in the day’s slate.
Josh Harrison: Second Baseman, Pirates
Harrison has been crushing the baseball recently, boasting an average distance of 261 feet, exit velocity of 94 mph and fly-ball and hard-hit rates of 50% and 40%. Those numbers trounce his 12-month averages, giving him differentials of +50 feet, +4 mph, and +6 percentage points. His +32 Recent Batted Ball Luck suggests that Harrison is hitting the ball better than his short-term fantasy production indicates, and he will lead off for the Pirates today. Hitters with similar lineup positions and Statcast data have historically averaged a +1.75 DraftKings Plus/Minus (per our Trends tool):
Harrison will face Reds righty Luis Castillo, who has allowed a 50% fly ball rate over the past 15 days. Harrison is on the wrong side of his batting splits, but Cincinnati has a forecast of 80-degree weather at game time, so the Pirates should have a good hitting environment, and Harrison has a slate-best 67 Park Factor as a righty hitting at Great American Ball Park.
Jesus Aguilar: First Baseman, Brewers
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. The top five-man DraftKings main-slate stack in the Batted Ball Model belongs to the Brewers, who are implied for a slate-high 4.7 runs:
Milwaukee’s projected lineup owns a solid .313 wOBA versus lefties, and this stack features four players with recent batted-ball distance averages between 210 and 250 feet. On a short slate, given their high Vegas data, the Brewers might garner significant ownership.
One player who stands out is Jesus Aguilar, projected to hit fifth. Over the past month he’s averaged 9.8 DraftKings points per game at a 57% Consistency Rate, and over the past 15 days he’s crushed the ball with an impressive average distance of 243 feet, exit velocity of 94 mph, 47% fly-ball rate and 44% hard-hit rate.
Charlie Morton: Pitcher, Astros
Without a standout pitcher on the DraftKings main slate, Morton is likely the top option. He provides a slate-best 1.04 WHIP and 10.45 K/9 over the past 12 months, but his 6.3 K Prediction leaves a lot to be desired. On the positive side, his Statcast data is fantastic with a recent batted-ball distance of 189 feet, exit velocity of 89 mph and 32% hard-hit rate. Pitchers with comparably average K Predictions and strong Statcast data have historically been productive options on DraftKings:
He will take the mound against a projected Indians lineup that owns a low 19.6% strikeout rate against right-handed pitchers over the past 12 months, and his Bargain Rating of 12% doesn’t exactly scream value, but it is the top DraftKings mark among all pitchers priced above $9,000.
Good luck, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more baseball coverage!
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs.
Pictured above: Jesus Aguilar
Photo credit: Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports
