This series uses the FantasyLabs Tools to analyze three key MLB players in the day’s slate.
Nick Castellanos: Outfielder, Tigers
With our Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters. One of the top stacks in the Recent Batted Ball Player Model belongs to the Detroit Tigers, who are implied for 4.8 runs against Royals right-hander Eric Skoglund:
Castellanos has hit well against righties with an elite .412 weighted on-base average (wOBA) and .325 isolated power (ISO) over the past 12 months. He has also been crushing the ball in his past 12 games with a 93-mph exit velocity and 50% hard-hit rate. Meanwhile, Skoglund has been recently obliterated, allowing an average distance of 241 feet and exit velocity of 97 mph. Historically, hitters with comparable metrics have destroyed pitchers similar to Skoglund with a +1.15 DraftKings Plus/Minus and 48.2% Consistency Rating (per our Trends tool).
Jesus Aguilar: First Baseman, Brewers
Per our Vegas Dashboard, there are four teams implied for at least 5.2 runs on Sunday. Of that group, the Brewers offer the most value on DraftKings with their Team Value Rating of 87:
Aguilar will square off against Marlins left-hander Caleb Smith, who has allowed three or more earned runs over his past two starts. Aguilar has hit lefties well over the past year with a .387 wOBA and .257 ISO. Overall, he’s off to a good start to the season with a +4.09 Plus/Minus on DraftKings along with a recent average distance of 238 feet, exit velocity of 93 mph, and 47% fly-ball rate. It’s a great overall spot for Aguilar, as Smith is a fly-ball pitcher with a 46% fly-ball rate over the past 12 months.
Corey Kluber: Pitcher, Indians
There are three main-slate pitchers with at least -195 moneyline odds, and of the group Kluber stands out the most. The Orioles have a slate-low implied total of 2.9 runs, and the Indians are the slate’s biggest favorites (-235 moneyline odds). Historically, pitchers with comparable Vegas odds and implied run totals have yielded remarkably consistent results:
Kluber owns a slate-best 0.82 WHIP and 11.92 K/9, and he doesn’t give up a lot of home runs as evidenced by his 0.79 HR/9. The projected Orioles lineup has a high 27% strikeout rate and mediocre .309 wOBA against right-handed pitchers over the past 12 months. Kluber’s 9.9 K Prediction is by far the highest on the slate, and he has excellent Statcast data with a recent average distance of 193 feet. With Lance McCullers and Luis Severino also pitching today, Kluber could have a lower ownership rate than he otherwise might in this spot.
Good luck on today’s slate, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more baseball coverage!
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs.
Pictured above: Nick Castellanos
Photo credit: Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports
