This series uses the FantasyLabs Tools to analyze three key MLB players in the day’s slate.
Aaron Nola: Pitcher, Phillies
Of the three early-slate pitchers priced at $10,000 or higher on DraftKings, Nola is the most intriguing. His 8.1 K Prediction is tops all of today’s starting pitchers, and the opposing Marlins are implied for a bottom-two 3.1 runs. Nola’s recent batted-ball data is easily the best on the slate. He owns an immaculate 190-foot average distance, 88-mph exit velocity, and 16% hard-hit rate over the past 15 days. Nola has not only been absolutely dealing lately, but his long-term 1.1 WHIP also inspires a ton of confidence, especially against a Marlins club that has a bottom-two .295 wOBA. Similarly priced pitchers with comparably impressive Vegas data, K Predictions and Statcast numbers have historically (per our Trends tool) been great investments, averaging a +3.77 DraftKings Plus/Minus and 70.0% Consistency.
Kyle Hendricks: Pitcher, Cubs
With not many pitchers worth paying up for on the main slate, Hendricks looks like a strong value against a Padres team ranked 28th in wRC+ against righties. He’s even more affordable on FanDuel with his 91% Bargain Rating, but he doesn’t have a ton of strikeout upside (7.62 SO/9 and 5.1 K Prediction). Thankfully, the Cubs are slate-leading -181 moneyline favorites and his recent batted-ball data is among the best on the slate with a 178-foot average distance, 89-mph exit velocity, and 25% fly-ball rate over his past two starts. Pitchers with similar Vegas data, comparably impressive recent Statcast numbers and subpar K Predictions have historically been solid options at low ownership: averaging a +2.99 FanDuel Plus/Minus and 7.8% ownership rate in large guaranteed prize pools.
Charlie Blackmon: Outfielder, Rockies
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. The top five-man DraftKings stack in the CSURAM88 Model belongs to the Rockies (see below) at Coors Field. They’re implied for a slate-high 6.8 runs and own the highest Team Value Rating.
- LeMahieu (R)
- Blackmon (L)
- Arenado (R)
- Story (R)
- Gonzalez (L)
Total Salary: $25,200
Colorado will square off against Mariners lefty Wade LeBlanc, who owns a bottom-two 1.62 HR/9 over the past 12 months.
Projected to bat third, Nolan Arenado has an elite .559 wOBA and .427 ISO against left-handed pitching over the past 12 months. Charlie Blackmon also really stands out lately. Despite being on the wrong side of his respective splits today, he’s still one top batting options on the slate. He has impressive recent Statcast differentials versus his year-long averages: including a distance of +28 feet, exit velocity of +4 miles per hour and hard-hit rate of +14 percentage points. I will also point out that he’s much more affordable on FanDuel with a 97% Bargain Rating.
Good luck, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more in-depth MLB analysis.
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs.
Pictured above: Charlie Blackmon
Photo credit: Jennifer Buchanan-USA TODAY Sports
