This series uses the FantasyLabs Tools to analyze three key MLB players in the day’s slate. The series does not provide play or fade recommendations. It provides analysis.
Clayton Kershaw: Pitcher, Dodgers
Monday’s slate offers a few aces on the mound, but Kershaw provides the safety and upside we all love, especially when he is playing at home. With a -290 moneyline, Kershaw is the largest favorite on the slate. Historically, Kershaw has been dominant at home when the Dodgers are at least a -200 moneyline favorite, averaging a +12.47 FanDuel Plus/Minus with a 78.3 Consistency Rating (per our Trends tool):
While the projected Mets lineup has a respectable .235 SO/AB along with a .313 wOBA over the last 12 months, they are projected for a slate-low 2.6 runs. He doesn’t have the highest K Prediction on the slate (6.5), but he does have solid recent Statcast data with an exit velocity of 87 miles per hour and a stellar 18 percent hard hit rate. Kershaw typically dominates his slates in ownership, which Pro Subscribers can view after lineup lock via our DFS Ownership Dashboard.
Nomar Mazara: Outfielder, Rangers
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters. One of the top four-man stacks on FanDuel belongs to the Rangers, one of four teams with implied totals over 5.0 runs:
Mazara squares off against struggling Blue Jays righty Marco Estrada, who has allowed 17 earned runs over his last three starts. Mazara boasts a .339 wOBA and .191 ISO against right-handed pitching over the last 12 months and also has exceptional Statcast data with a recent batted ball distance of 236 feet, exit velocity of 95 miles per hour, and hard hit rate of 46 percent. Historically, players with similar Statcast and Vegas data have averaged a +2.39 FanDuel Plus/Minus.
Lonnie Chisenhall: Outfield, Indians
Team Value Rating is a FantasyLabs metric that measures which teams offer the most value based on their implied team totals and current player salaries. Per our Vegas Dashboard, the Indians have the fourth-best Team Value Rating on FanDuel:
If you roster Kershaw, you’ll need to save some salary with your batters and Chisenhall is an option. While he doesn’t bat in a spot that DFS players typically target (seventh), he’s in a favorable spot against Dylan Bundy at Camden Yards. Bundy’s fly ball rate of 58 percent over his last two starts pairs well with Chisenhall’s fly ball rate of 64 percent. Chisenhall has averaged a +6.46 FanDuel Plus/Minus over his last 10 games while his salary has decreased $300 in that span. He’s also crushing the ball with a recent batted ball distance of 246 feet and leads the slate with nine Pro Trends on FanDuel, where he has a Bargain Rating of 99 percent.
Note: Our Lineups page shows a 43 percent chance of rain for the Indians-Orioles game. Be sure to monitor weather updates leading up to lineup lock.
Good luck, and be sure to read today’s MLB Breakdown!
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs: