This series uses the FantasyLabs Tools to analyze three key MLB players in the day’s slate. The series does not provide play or fade recommendations. It provides analysis.
Alex Wood: Pitcher, Dodgers
Each slate is different, but in Wood’s last start (6/10), ownership was surprisingly flat among the high-priced pitchers (per our DFS Ownership Dashboard):
That could be the case again tonight, as the slate lacks a standout option in our Player Models. With the second-highest K prediction (7.9) on the slate, Wood is in play as he’s $3,800 cheaper than Max Scherzer and facing a Reds team currently implied for just 4.1 runs (per our Vegas Dashboard). After missing a start due to shoulder inflammation, Wood was elite in his return against these same Reds, inducing ground balls at a 73 percent rate. Of Cincinnati’s projected batting order (per our Lineups page), just Joey Votto owns a recent batted ball distance of 220 feet or higher.
Max Scherzer : Pitcher, Nationals
The aformentioned Scherzer is the most expensive pitcher in the slate, fresh off of a 10-strikeout performance in which he surrendered just three hits. On the road against the Mets, who are implied for a slate-low 3.4 runs, Scherzer boasts a stellar 8.5 K Prediction despite New York’s low 0.222 SO/AB. Historically, pitchers with similar K Predictions and Vegas data have averaged a +3.34 FanDuel Plus/Minus with a 60.0 percent Consistency Rating (per our Trends tool):
Scherzer has solid Statcast data with a recent batted ball distance of 208 feet, exit velocity of 90 miles per hour, and hard hit rate of 32 percent. With other high-priced options in the slate, Scherzer’s unlikely to have exorbitant ownership, but he carries immense upside in guaranteed prize pools given his strikeout projection and Vegas data.
Edwin Encarnacion: First Base, Indians
Finding cheap stacks is important if you’re looking to squeeze in a stud pitcher, and with the Lineup Builder it’s easy to find value on a team level. The Indians are intriguing today. Even though there’s a game at Coors Field, they currently lead the slate with 5.7 implied runs and a 91 Team Value Rating on DraftKings, where they have one of the top five-man slates:
Sporting a batted ball distance differential of +23 feet and .367 wOBA against left-handers, Encarnacion is in a favorable spot against Twins pitcher Nik Turley, who struggled in his major league debut (6/11), throwing 73 pitches in just four innings and allowing four earned runs, eight hits, and a batted ball distance of 227 feet. Given that there are 15 games in this Coors slate, Cleveland’s ownership will likely be reasonable — and DraftKings batters comparable to Encarnacion in lineup spot, implied total, and distance differential have a historical Plus/Minus of +1.98.
Good luck, and be sure to read Bryan Mears’ MLB Breakdown later today!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
