The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Sunday features a two-game slate starting at 8:00 p.m. ET.
Indiana Pacers (-3.5) @ Phoenix Suns – 220 total
Indiana has the best matchup of the day, with Phoenix ranking third in pace and 27th in defensive efficiency this season. The result is a slate-high implied team total of 111.75 points, which is roughly five points higher than their season average.
The Pacers start with Victor Oladipo, who currently ranks 13th in the league with a usage rate of 30.3 percent. He disappointed badly in his last game against the Cavaliers, scoring just 29.1 FanDuel points in 40 minutes, but this seems like a prime bounce-back spot. The Suns have struggled with opposing SGs all season, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.96 for Oladipo. He should be one of the more popular options to pay up for on today’s slate, owning an ownership projection of 41+ percent in our Player Models.
Unsurprisingly, Oladipo isn’t the only member of the Pacers with a good matchup: seven players have an Opponent plus/Minus of at least 3.08 on DraftKings:
The injury situation with the Pacers’ frontcourt will be important to monitor up until lineup lock. Myles Turner has already been ruled out, and there’s a chance that Domantas Sabonis could miss today’s contest as well. Sabonis has played well in Turner’s stead all season, but his absence would likely result in a few extra minutes for TJ Leaf and Al Jefferson. Jefferson has been the more effective player on a per-minute basis, averaging 0.83 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, but Leaf would be the better bet to see the majority of the minutes. Both options are the dead minimum on DraftKings.
Thaddeus Young has the best Opponent Plus/Minus of the day at +5.20, and his role should be safe regardless of the status of Sabonis. He played over 39 minutes in his last game and remains affordable on DraftKings, where his $5,400 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 86 percent.
The Pacers’ PG situation has been volatile recently. Darren Collison played 35 minutes in his last game, but prior to that had seen 28 minutes or less in five straight games. Cory Joseph was outplaying him over that time period, but he played just 17 minutes in his last start. Collison is probably the safer play of the two, but Joseph could be an intriguing contrarian option for guaranteed prize pools (GPPs).
Don’t forget about Lance Stephenson either: He’s scored at least 28.9 FanDuel points in three of his past five games. At just $4,900 on FanDuel, he has plenty of upside today.
The minutes for Phoenix will likely be much more consolidated than they are for the Pacers, which is always appealing for daily fantasy basketball.
Devin Booker remains underpriced on FanDuel, where his $8,000 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 95 percent. He’s been a fantasy monster over his past 10 games:
Unfortunately, he has one of the tougher individual matchups of the day against Oladipo, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of just +0.93. Still, his projected usage rate of 30.2 percent is first on the slate, as are his 12 Pro Trends.
What Booker is to FanDuel, TJ Warren is to DraftKings. His Bargain Rating of 97 percent is one of the top marks on the slate, and he’s posted a Consistency Rating of 91 percent over the past month. He doesn’t have a great matchup either, owning an Opponent Plus/Minus of just +0.33, but he may be too good of a value to pass up at his current salary.
The Phoenix frontcourt features what will likely be two of the more popular value options of the day in Dragan Bender and Tyson Chandler. Bender has gone off in two straight games, playing at least 32 minutes and scoring at least 32.6 FanDuel points in both. The last game was a bit of a fluke – he did almost all of his damage after the Rockets had the game well in hand – but he still figures to play big minutes due to the injury to Marquese Chriss. Bender remains really affordable on FanDuel at $4,100, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 98 percent.
Chandler has the best matchup of the day for the Suns (+5.80 Opponent Plus/Minus on DraftKings). That honestly may undersell how good a matchup this is if Sabonis were to sit: Their rebound rate of 48.4 percent with Sabonis and Turner off the floor would be the fifth-worst mark in the league. Chandler provides a nice combination of safety and upside at his current salary.
Portland Trail Blazers @ Minnesota Timberwolves (-6) – 212 total
The Trail Blazers have a nice matchup on paper against Minnesota, but the Timberwolves have actually been much better on defense recently. They currently rank just tied for 18th in defensive efficiency on the season, but that’s a far cry from where they’ve spent the majority of the season.
Damian Lillard has returned from an injury recently, but it looks like Shabazz Napier has played his way into a big role for the Blazers regardless of Lillard’s status. All three of Lillard, Napier, and CJ McCollum played at least 35.5 minutes in their last game against the Pelicans, and all three exceeded salary-based expectations. Lillard and McCollum aren’t going to surprise anyone on a two-game slate – they’re both projected for 41+ percent ownership on DraftKings – but Napier could fly a bit under the radar with the team back at full strength.
Outside of the guards, the only other option with much appeal for the Blazers is Jusuf Nurkic. His minutes have been extremely volatile all season, but his size figures to be needed against Karl-Anthony Towns today. The matchup with Towns results in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +5.06, and Nurkic has averaged 1.16 fantasy points per minute over the past month. If he plays 30+ minutes, he has an excellent chance of paying off his current salary.
Portland has surprisingly been one of the better defensive teams all season, with their average of 103.6 points allowed per 100 possessions ranking seventh in the league. That said, that hasn’t stopped Vegas from implying Minnesota for 109 points, which is right in line with their season average of 108.5.
Jeff Teague has averaged 0.9 fantasy points per minute this season, and he played 32.5 minutes in his last game. That combination of production and playing time makes him one of the better values of the day on FanDuel at $5,500. Unfortunately, he does have a brutal matchup, owning an Opponent Plus/Minus of -1.59, but he’ll still be hard to pass up on a two-game slate.
Andrew Wiggins has been surprisingly good recently, posting an average Plus/Minus of +5.55 on FanDuel over his past 10 games:
That said, Wiggins is extremely depended on real-life scoring for fantasy points, and he’s always capable of going into an extended funk.
Karl-Anthony Towns has the best matchup today for the Timberwolves (+4.26 Opponent Plus/Minus). He’s coming off a game where he was one assist shy of a triple-double, but unfortunately it’s still hard to trust Towns given how minimal his offensive involvement can be at times. His usage rate has decreased each month, currently sitting at just 20.9 percent through seven games in January. While he remains one of the most talented big men in the game, it’s going to be hard for him to display any sort of consistency if his usage continues to decline.
Jimmy Butler has finally – finally! – been priced fairly on DraftKings. He has a Bargain Rating of less than 90 percent for the first time in what feels like a month, but that doesn’t mean you should shy away from playing him. Butler has been extremely effective recently, averaging a Plus/Minus of +4.35 on DraftKings over his past 10 games, and his average of 1.22 fantasy points per minute over the past month is the second-highest mark on today’s slate.
Finally, head coach Tom Thibodeau appears to have dusted off Gorgui Dieng recently, who has exceeded salary-based expectations in six of his past seven games. He doesn’t have a ton of upside given his low minute ceiling, but he’s one of the safer options below $4,000 on DraftKings.
Good luck!
Photo via Trevor Ruszkowski-USA TODAY Sports
News Updates
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