The TOUR moves east from Tony Finau‘s win at the 3M Open to the Rocket Mortgage Classic in Detroit. Several young stars are set to tee it up this week as they prepare for the end of the season heading into the playoffs. Patrick Cantlay and Finau will join that group at the top of the board this week.
DraftKings will roll out their standard $20 Pitch + Putt, with $250,000 of the $1M prize pool going to first place. We will use that as our target contest this week for this article as I dissect my favorite plays for Detroit Golf Club.
The cliff notes version is that you can use SimLeverage to quickly find leverage plays in tournaments, while Perfect% is great for finding the best price-considered plays for cash games.
Now, let’s get into the plays for the week.
Patrick Cantlay $10,700
If ownership projections are correct — and they are usually pretty well dialed in — then it will be a chalky bunch at the top. Part of the reason for that is that just nine players are priced over $9,000, and most will start with at least one of these players. The sentiment seems to be high on Cameron Young, and Will Zalatoris always seems to get some buzz.
With that in mind, the ownership on Cantlay could be lower than expected. He is the highest-priced player in the field, and the options get thin down low. We have seen Cantlay start to round into form of late, which is part of why he checks in as the top-rated player in the Bailey Model this week. It wouldn’t surprise me to see him capture his first win of the season here in Detroit.
Cameron Davis $9,700
Speaking of winning in Detroit, the defending champion is getting a big bump in price and could be overlooked on DraftKings. While the price tag may be a concerning factor overall, he makes for an intriguing play in large-field contests. Davis is someone we can rely on to score and do so in bunches. He isn’t likely to do it without bogeys, but he still checks out as one of my top plays this week in my personal model, and with his ownership lagging well behind the others in this range, Davis can reach his upside through finishing position and scoring points. I’ll take my first shot at getting different in big GPPs with the Australian.
Cameron Tringale $8,500
Tringale is the second-highest-rated player in the Bailey Model in this range. He’s a guy that seems to be difficult to peg, but it’s pretty clear he has a liking for the Detroit Golf Club. He has two top 15 finishes in his three appearances and has made the cut each time. While the missed cut last week at the 3M Open is a reason for others to be scared off, it was all putter based, and we know how that club can fluctuate. If he can continue his strong tee to green play, he could be in line for another strong finish.
Mark Hubbard $8,000
I mentioned that Tringale was the second-highest-rated player in this range, and to my surprise, Hubbard ranks first. A closer look shows me the great game that Hubbard has had in recent weeks, and it seems pretty clear (though not entirely confirmed) that last week’s WD was for a week off after a long stretch of playing.
He will return this week at the Rocket Mortgage — where he finished 12th in 2020 — to try to continue the progression of his latest results. Hubbard has gained at least 2.5 shots on approach in his last four events, including seven recently at the Barbasol. If he brings that iron game and his putter this week, he can put himself in the mix again. I have a hard time believing that 15% of the field will ultimately click his name over some of the more established players around him, making him an excellent GPP option.
Cameron Champ $7,600
Some interesting names are projecting for mid-teens ownership in this range this week, and while Champ is approaching that level, he appears to be a few percentage points below it. He is a favorite play of mine this week in both DFS and the betting market.
I love the course fit for Champ, who won last year at a very comparable course at the 3M Open. Champ was nearing a missed cut last week at TPC Twin Cities before he reeled off four birdies in his final five holes on Friday to make it in on the number. He took advantage of his added play with consecutive 67s on the weekend to climb to a T16 finish. His scoring upside is fantastic for this price, but he also has a genuine winning ceiling. He’ll be a core play in my lineups.
Greyson Sigg $7,100
While much of the attention and ownership appears ready to ride with Callum Tarren at this price, I will pivot in many cases to ]Sigg. He is trending in the right direction with his game, making a big birdie putt on the final hole on Sunday at the 3M to slide into a T7 finish. It was the best finish of his career on TOUR, and he’s shown signs of the player that won two tournaments last year on the Korn Ferry. I expect him to carry a lot of confidence and momentum into this week on a very similar course setup and see him as a great way to get some single-digit ownership leverage in large-field contests.
Hayden Buckley $6,900
Buckley is another player that put together a solid week at the 3M and was just a couple of breaks away from a better finish. He rates out this week as the top player in the Bailey Model below $7,000, and a closer look at his numbers shows us why. Buckley has gained more than four strokes on the field with his irons in each of the last two measured tournaments he’s played, and that is far and away the most important category this week for the Rocket Mortgage. I’ll look to ride those hot irons in the bottom tier and see if he can continue to improve on his week-over-week finishes.
Lee Hodges $6,800
I’m going back to the well with Hodges this week as he continues to play some excellent golf. He finished T16 last week at the 3M Open, gaining an incredible nine shots on the field with his approach play, which helped him to overcome an ice-cold putter that lost 3.8 strokes. The flat stick is undoubtedly a growing concern, but I will always buy ball striking and hope we catch a solid week on the greens. Hodges has that in him and clearly feels comfortable with his play tee to green. He’s a strong value option to pair with a stud like Cantlay or Davis.