PGA DFS: Top Cash Game Picks for the PGA Championship

The PGA Championship will be played at Aronimink Golf Club (par 70, 7,394 yards, bentgrass greens) in Newtown Square, Pennsylvania. This Donald Ross-designed course hosted the PGA Championship in 1976, the AT&T National in 2010 and 2011, and the BMW Championship in 2018. Keegan Bradley (-20) won the 2018 BMW Championship by defeating Justin Rose in a playoff. Scottie Scheffler (-11) won last year’s PGA Championship at Quail Hollow Club by five shots. The PGA Championship this week is hosting a field of 156 golfers, and there will be a top 70 and ties cut after the first two rounds.

The PGA DFS Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each week’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable golfers.

I’ll be highlighting the best cash game/single-entry plays on the DraftKings main slate, but these players are often great options in any contest.

My analysis will frequently reference Strokes Gained, a set of proprietary metrics generated by the PGA TOUR using millions of data points to calculate how many shots, on average, it takes a player to get the ball in the hole from every distance and situation.

Strokes Gained is now available in the FantasyLabs PGA Models.

There are a variety of Strokes Gained-related metrics, but the six main categories you need to know include:

• Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee (SG: Off-the-Tee)
• Strokes Gained: Approach (SG: Approach)
• Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green (SG: Around-the-Green)
• Strokes Gained: Putting (SG: Putting)
• Strokes Gained: Ball-Striking (SG: Ball-Striking), which is SG: Off-the-Tee + SG: Approach
• Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green (SG: Tee-to-Green), which is SG: Ball-Striking + SG: Around-the-Green

Don’t forget to check out two key metrics in our models — Perfect% and SimLeverage. You can find an explainer on those metrics here.

The Cliffs Notes version is that you can use SimLeverage to quickly find leverage plays in tournaments, while Perfect% is great for finding the best price-considered plays for cash games.

And don’t forget to utilize our various PGA DFS tools like our Lineup Optimizer, Lineup Builder, PGA Correlation Dashboard, and our Trends tool.

The following players listed are based on DraftKings scoring and pricing.

PGA DFS Cash Game Thoughts

DraftKings $10,000 Range

Scottie Scheffler ($13,900)

Rostering Scottie Scheffler isn’t difficult, given the plethora of appealing value plays, and it is the right move for cash games. The world No. 1 skipped last week’s Truist Championship to head to Aronimink early, and Scheffler has been on the brink of securing his second win of the season, finishing runner-up at three straight tournaments. Scheffler won last year’s PGA Championship by five shots, which is one of his seven wins over the last year. Scheffler has finished T8 or better in five of his six starts at the PGA Championship, and unsurprisingly, his game sets up perfectly for Aronimink. Scheffler ranks fifth in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee and 14th in Strokes Gained: Putting this season. Of the three winners at Aronimink in the new millennium, all three finished the event in the top three in Strokes Gained: Putting, and two of these victors finished the event in the top 10 in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee.

DraftKings $8,000 Range

Shane Lowry ($8,600)

While I prefer Scheffler lineups that feature him surrounded by mostly players in the $7,000 range, builds that include one player from the $8,000 range to complement Scheffler are viable for cash games, and Lowry is my preferred target in this area. The Irishman has finished inside the top 12 in six of his last eight starts at the PGA Championship, and he is on the heels of a T23 finish at the Cadillac Championship, in which Lowry caught fire in the final round with an 8-under 64. This season, the former Open champion has made 7 of 10 cuts with four top-25 finishes, and he ranks 24th in Strokes Gained: Putting. Given how large and complex the greens are at Aronimink, having an efficient showing with your putter is a must at this track, and Lowry brings great upside as he looks to build off that excellent closing round at the Cadillac Championship.

Now available: our PGA DFS SimLabs Lineup Generator that creates advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.

DraftKings $7,000 Range

J.J. Spaun ($7,700)

The $7,000 range is filled with attractive plays this week, and J.J. Spaun is one of the best options. Last year’s U.S. Open champion finished a respectable T45 in his lone start at Aronimink in 2018 as the 132nd-ranked player in the world. Now, Spaun returns to the par 70 as the eighth-ranked player in the world and is poised for a much higher finish. In his last five starts, Spaun has finished first, MC, T25, T14, and T5. That final finish came at the Truist Championship last week, and he gained strokes in every major category at Quail Hollow. Spaun has shot under par in 10 of his last 12 rounds, and he ranks eighth in Strokes Gained: Approach this season.

Min Woo Lee ($7,500)

Lee has finished inside the top 30 at two of the last three PGA Championships, and this season, the Australian has made 10 of 11 cuts and produced six top-25 finishes. Lee just finished T14 at the Truist Championship last week, and he tied for the lowest score of the final round, posting a 7-under 64 on Sunday. Lee ranks ninth in total driving this season, and while he has no previous experience at Aronimink, Lee has a knack for Ross courses. In this field, Lee ranks sixth in Strokes Gained per round at Ross-designed venues.

Adam Scott ($7,500)

Scott finished T3 at Aronimink in 2011, and the Aussie has impressively made 17 straight cuts. Scott has finished inside the top 25 in six of his last seven starts, and his ball striking has been awesome this season, ranking third in Strokes Gained: Approach and 13th in total driving. Scott should provide another rock-solid finish this weekend, and he is underpriced at just $7,500.

Rickie Fowler ($7,400)

Fowler has competed at Aronimink three times and improved in each visit, finishing MC, T13, and T8. Fowler carded three 5-under 65s during his T8 finish at the 2018 BMW Championship, and he ranks 10th among this field in strokes gained per round at Aronimink. Fowler now returns to the track in stellar form, and another top-10 finish at Aronimink isn’t out of the question for him. Fowler has finished T8, T9, and runner-up in his last three starts, and all of these were Signature Events. Fowler shot under par in 10 of these 12 rounds, and he gained strokes on approach and with his putter at each of these last three tournaments. For the season, Fowler ranks third in par-4 performance and 12th in Strokes Gained: Putting, both of which bode very well for Aronimink.

DraftKings $6,000 and Below Range

Nicolai Hojgaard ($6,500)

Nicolai Hojgaard has advanced through the cut at each of the last three PGA Championships, and the Dane is fresh off a runner-up finish at the Truist Championship last week. Hojgaard gained strokes across the board at Quail Hollow, and for the season, he has only missed one cut in 11 starts, and he has recorded seven top-25 finishes. At just $6,500, Hojgaard is one of the best values we have seen on DraftKings this season, and this is evident when we compare outright odds to win to DFS salaries. On DraftKings Sportsbook, Hojgaard carries +7000 odds to win the PGA Championship, which are better odds than Hideki Matsuyama, who costs $9,200 for DFS this week.

Alex Fitzpatrick ($5,900)

While this will be just Fitzpatrick’s second career start at a major, the Englishman is playing outstanding golf and is a standout value play at this sub-$6,000 salary. Fitzpatrick won the Hero Indian Open on the DP World Tour in March, and he won the team-based Zurich Classic in April playing alongside his brother Matt, earning Alex a two-year exemption on the PGA TOUR. Then, in Alex’s first two starts as a PGA TOUR member, he finished T9 at the Cadillac Championship and T4 at the Truist Championship the last two weeks. Fitzpatrick led the world-class field in Strokes Gained: Approach at Quail Hollow this past week, and if he can in any way replicate this performance as a ball striker, Fitzpatrick will be in store for a strong PGA Championship debut this week.

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Pictured: Scottie Scheffler
Photo credit: Imagn