The PGA DFS Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each week’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable golfers.
The PGA TOUR stays in California this week but heads from La Jolla to Pebble Beach for the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. There will be another three-course rotation and 54-hole cut in play this week. Golfers will play each of Pebble Beach, Spyglass Hill, and Monterey Peninsula over the first three rounds before returning to Pebble Beach for the final round. All three courses are short, measuring under 7,100 yards, but Monterey Peninsula is the lone par 71 of the group, while both Pebble Beach and Spyglass Hill are par 72s. All three courses feature poa greens.
I’ll be highlighting the best cash game/single-entry plays on the DraftKings main slate, but these players are often great options in any contest.
My analysis will frequently reference Strokes Gained, a set of proprietary metrics generated by the PGA TOUR using millions of data points to calculate how many shots, on average, it takes a player to get the ball in the hole from every distance and situation.
Strokes Gained is now available in the FantasyLabs PGA Models.
There are a variety of Strokes Gained-related metrics, but the six main categories you need to know include:
- Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee (SG: Off-the-Tee)
- Strokes Gained: Approach (SG: Approach)
- Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green (SG: Around-the-Green)
- Strokes Gained: Putting (SG: Putting)
- Strokes Gained: Ball-Striking (SG: Ball-Striking), which is SG: Off-the-Tee + SG: Approach
- Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green (SG: Tee-to-Green), which is SG: Ball-Striking + SG: Around-the-Green
If you missed it, we added two new metrics in our models — Perfect% and SimLeverage. You can find an explainer on those metrics here.
The cliff notes version is that you can use SimLeverage to quickly find leverage plays in tournaments, while Perfect% is great for finding the best price-considered plays for cash games.
The following players listed are based on DraftKings scoring and pricing.
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PGA DFS Core Picks
Matt Fitzpatrick ($10,100 DraftKings)
We have not seen Fitzpatrick since the Sentry Tournament of Champions, where he finished T7. This is one of the weaker fields we will see all season, yet Fitz is still not the highest-priced golfer, which is a bit surprising. His $10,100 salary makes him one of the best values on the board, considering he is the betting favorite in most sports books to win the event.
Over the past 48 rounds in this field, Fitzpatrick ranks No. 1 in both SG: Tee-to-Green and SG: Total. He’s gotten himself up to No. 10 in the world after winning the U.S. Open last season, and despite the fact he will likely be chalky this week, he makes for arguably the best play on the slate. His history at this event was not great until last season when he posted a T6, but that should be considered the norm moving forward rather than an anomaly.
Keith Mitchell ($9,100 DraftKings)
After letting everyone down at the Sony Open three weeks ago, Mitchell bounced back at American Express, where he finished T22. He looked great during his two rounds at the Stadium Course, gaining over 4.5 strokes from tee to green. Mitchell will be making his sixth career start at Pebble Beach, where he’s made the cut in three of his previous five starts, including a T12 last season.
Long term, Mitchell rates out strong in this field, ranking No. 1 in SG: Off-the-Tee, No. 2 in SG: Ball-Striking and eighth in SG: Total over his past 48 rounds. At just $9,100, Mitchell’s price does not line up with his betting odds for the week, making him one of the better values on the board in both cash games and GPPs alike.
Taylor Moore ($8,300 DraftKings)
Last year was Moore’s first full season on the PGA TOUR, and he played quite well, posting nine top-25 finishes. This tournament marked one of those nine, as he finished T16 in his inaugural trip to Pebble Beach. With the winner of this event usually getting close to 19-under par, it will take a hot flat stick to stay in contention. That is right up Moore’s alley, as he ranks 15th in SG: Putting over his past 48 rounds and has gained an average of 1.33 strokes putting per round at Pebble Beach for his career (albeit in one start), which ranks fifth in this field.
After missing the cut in his first start of 2023, Moore posted a T11 at the Farmers last week and looked mighty impressive doing so. He gained 2.6 strokes on approach and 3.06 strokes from tee-to-green on Sunday, while plenty of elite players, such as Jon Rahm, were struggling. I like him to build on his momentum from last week and post another strong finish at a very reasonable price tag.
PGA DFS Value Picks
Nick Taylor ($8,000 DraftKings)
Some guys just show up at certain courses and play well regardless of recent form, and that’s what we have here with Taylor, who won this event back in 2020. He’s played Pebble Beach eight times now, making the cut in six of those, with a pair of top-14 finishes and two additional top-30s. All in all, that’s pretty strong, considering how volatile Taylor can be throughout the season.
The difference this year is that he’s coming in with some pretty strong recent form, having finished T7 at the Sony Open, T23 in Bermuda, T19 at Sanderson Farms, and T6 at the Fortinet, all over his past eight starts. During this stretch, the Canadian ranks 16th in this field on approach and 19th in both SG: Tee-to-Green and SG: Total. At just $8,000, we don’t need him to win, but he should absolutely make the cut and give us a decent bit of upside beyond that.
Beau Hossler ($7,400 DraftKings)
Prior to last week, Hossler had been rolling, making the cut in five of his previous six starts, including three top-25 finishes in that stretch. I think we can give him a pass for last week, as Torrey Pines can give even the best golfers in the world fits. The ironic part about him missing last week, though, was that he hit the ball extremely well, gaining two strokes ball-striking in his lone round at the South Course. He would lose 1.98 strokes putting, however, which is normally one of Hossler’s biggest strengths.
Dating back 48 rounds, Hossler ranks seventh in this field in SG: Putting, so we should expect things to correct themselves on the greens this week. He finished T3 here last season and has made the cut in four of his six career starts at Pebble Beach, so there’s a good chance he shakes off his bad performance from last week and plays well in this spot.
Kevin Streelman ($7,100 DraftKings)
Kevin Streelman absolutely loves Pebble Beach, maybe more than anyone not named Jordan Spieth. In six of his past eight starts, Streelman has finished 13th, second, T7, sixth, T14, and T17. He’s not the player he once was, but we don’t really need him to be this week at just $7,100. Some guys just know how to get around specific courses, which goes against how most sharp DFS players think, but it has clearly shown to be true.
It also helps that Streelman does his best putting on poa, gaining .27 more strokes per round on the California grass compared to other surfaces. After playing pretty well during the Fall swing and then making the cut last week at Torrey, I expect Streelman to do what he always does around these parts: make it to Sunday and give us a decent finish at a strong price tag.
Dylan Fritteli ($7,000 DraftKings)
Frittelli is another punt play at the bottom who I think can play well this week. He’s coming off a T37 at the Farmers last week, which was on the heels of a strong performance on the DP World Tour before that. Frittelli gained over 3.54 strokes from tee-to-green in his three measured rounds at Torrey Pines and also has positive putting splits on poa.
The former Texas Longhorn finished T24 here last year in only his second career trip to Pebble Beach. Despite missing the cut in his first trip, Frittelli still has averaged .29 SG: Tee-to-Green per round at this event. If he putts decent enough, he will be around on Sunday, which is all we are looking for at just $7,000.