Another NFL season has flown by, as just two teams remain after all of the dust has settled. The Eagles and Chiefs had the two best records in the league, took care of business in two home playoff games, and are off to the desert to battle for the Lombardi Trophy.
The narratives have been flowing all week between these two teams. Andy Reid is facing off against his former team, while Jason and Travis Kelce will become the first-ever set of brothers to face off in the Super Bowl.
This marks the 15th straight Super Bowl with the favorite laying fewer than seven points, as the Eagles are favored by 1.5 points. The look-ahead line for this game had the Chiefs as one-point favorites, but the line movement through zero doesn’t provide much value as those points aren’t worth much.
Philadelphia has a more talented roster (although that narrative has certainly been overblown throughout the week), but Kansas City may have the ultimate trump card with Patrick Mahomes at quarterback. Regardless of how the game shakes out, let’s sweat some props!
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NFL Player Prop Picks for Super Bowl 57
Patrick Mahomes Under 297.5 Passing Yards and 1,000.5 Passing Yards
No, that’s not a typo — No House Advantage is running a promo to bet Mahomes to finish with less than 1,000.5 passing yards!
The first thing you’ve probably deduced is that I hate fun. You would be correct. What kind of sicko takes Patrick Mahomes under in the Super Bowl? I’d spin that and say why is his passing prop so high? Despite the high number, Mahomes has actually eclipsed this number in eleven of 19 games in the year. In his 13 career playoff games, he’s exceeded this number in just five.
With two matchups against top defenses in his past Super Bowls, Mahomes only threw for 270 and 286 yards. This Kansas City offense is also different than years past stylistically, as they utilize more of the underneath areas on the field. They don’t have Tyreek Hill to take the top off of the defense and rip off big plays. The Chiefs like to matriculate the ball down the field, and with Philadelphia utilizing a fairly run-heavy approach, we could see the clock moving pretty quickly.
This matchup is also very tough. Philadelphia is the No. 1 pass defense per DVOA and has only allowed one quarterback to throw for more than 250 yards in a game this season.
Our Prop Tool has this line at 280.5 yards, showing a lot of value in the under.
Kadarius Toney Under 29.5 Receiving Yards
Kadarius Toney saw a good amount of work in the Chiefs’ Divisional Round matchup with Jacksonville, catching five of seven targets for 36 yards. He saw two targets last week before sustaining an injury, catching one ball for nine yards. It seems that Toney is getting more and more involved, but his snap share has stayed pretty stagnant. JuJu Smith-Schuster and Mecole Hardman also sustained injuries in the Conference Championship, with Smith-Schuster set to go for the Super Bowl, but Hardman is now placed on IR.
Toney runs a lot of short underneath routes, and he simply doesn’t see that much playing time. Toney needed five catches in the Divisional Round to get to 36 yards, and we have him projected at 2.5 for this matchup.
Our Prop Tool has him at 23.3 receiving yards, showing good value in the under.
Jerick McKinnon Under 5.5 Rushing Attempts
If Kansas City was keeping their backfield split as they have all season, McKinnon would still be an underdog to eclipse this total. In nineteen games this year, McKinnon beat this total in just seven games. Clyde Edwards-Helaire has also been activated from IR, which could eat into McKinnon’s rushing attempts.
The Chiefs tried to let McKinnon regain his 2022 playoff magic in the Divisional Round, but he ran extremely poorly, running for just 25 yards on 11 carries. Kansas City passed the torch back to Isiah Pacheco in the Conference Championship, as he carried the ball ten times to just four for McKinnon. It’s unlikely that the Chiefs waste plays, giving rush attempts to the ineffective McKinnon. Our Prop Tool has this number around six, but considering the circumstances, we like the under.
Kenneth Gainwell Over 11.5 Receiving Yards
Kenneth Gainwell has been very effective for Philadelphia in the playoffs, amassing 29 touches in Philadelphia’s two games. He’s also clearly their top pass-catching game, with 11 multi-target games, including six of their last eight. The Chiefs also just gave up a lot of work through the air to the Bengals’ running backs, with Joe Mixon and Samaje Perine combining for six catches.
Gainwell has been explosive, and Philadelphia will likely continue to give him some work. We expect Gainwell to see a handful of targets and expect him to clear his yardage total.