The Week 5 NFL main slate kicks off on Sunday, Oct. 11 at 1 p.m. ET.
In this piece, I highlight the running backs who stand out in our large suite of analytical fantasy tools, most specifically our FantasyLabs Models.
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Top Running Backs in the FantasyLabs Models
There are six running backs atop the individual Pro Models that Jonathan Bales, Peter Jennings (CSURAM88), Adam Levitan, Sean Koerner, Chris Raybon, Kevin McClelland (SportsGeek) and I have constructed.
Here’s where they place within our Week 5 fantasy football rankings (as of Wednesday evening):
- Ezekiel Elliott: No. 2 (PPR) | No. 2 (Half PPR) | No. 1 (Standard)
- Clyde Edwards-Helaire: No. 3 (PPR) | No. 4 (Half PPR) | No. 5 (Standard)
- James Robinson: No. 13 (PPR) | No. 13 (Half PPR) | No. 13 (Standard)
- David Johnson: No. 17 (PPR) | No. 17 (Half PPR) | No. 16 (Standard)
- Todd Gurley: No. 18 (PPR) | No. 15 (Half PPR) | No. 14 (Standard)
- Kenyan Drake: No. 23 (PPR) | No. 21 (Half PPR) | No. 20 (Standard)
FantasyLabs Positional Breakdowns
Check in throughout the week as I publish the rest of the positional breakdowns.
For more in-depth NFL analysis, check out The Action Network. For updates, see our FantasyLabs News Feed.
Odds as of Wednesday evening and via DraftKings Sportsbook, where you can get up to a $1,000 sign-up bonus today.
Ezekiel Elliott: Dallas Cowboys (-9.5) vs. New York Giants, 54 Over/Under
My mother isn’t a serious tape grinder, but she sees enough when she watches the Cowboys, and when they lose the odds are about -500 that within 60 seconds she will give me a phone call and start the conversation with something like, “What’s wrong with us? We SUCK!”
And Mama Lynn ain’t wrong. I’ve had three such conversations with her over past month. And let me tell you: These tend not to be short conversations.
In the most recent call, she mentioned that Zeke hasn’t looked like himself this year, that he’s not breaking off any long runs. I checked out the numbers, and sure enough, she’s right. Elliott has just one run this year of 15-plus yards (per Pro Football Focus). The season is still young, but so far Elliott has career-low marks in breakaway percentage (the percentage of total rushing yards from big plays) and yards after contact per attempt (YCO/A).
- 2020 (four games): 8.8% breakaway percentage | 2.77 YCO/A
- 2019 (16 games): 18.5% breakaway percentage | 3.23 YCO/A
- 2018 (17 games): 37.5% breakaway percentage | 3.09 YCO/A
- 2017 (10 games): 17.5% breakaway percentage | 3.30 YCO/A
- 2016 (16 games): 32.6% breakaway percentage | 2.96 YCO/A
And yet even with his decreased rushing efficiency, Elliott is still a top-six fantasy back with 23.1 PPR and 17.3 STD points per game.
How is that possible? He’s getting more receiving work than he has ever gotten before, he’s still getting plenty of touchdown opportunities on a team scoring 31.5 points per game, and — most importantly — running backs don’t matter.
His 2020 production, though inefficient, has been sufficient.
- Week 1 (at LAR): 27.7 PPR, 24.7 STD | 22-96-1 | 3-31-1, four targets
- Week 2 (vs. ATL): 22.2 PPR, 16.2 STD | 22-89-1 | 6-33-0, seven targets
- Week 3 (at SEA): 17.8 PPR, 11.8 STD | 14-34-1 | 6-24-0, 11 targets
- Week 4 (vs. CLE): 22.5 PPR, 12.5 STD | 12-54-0 | 8-71-0, eight targets | one 2-point conversion
And that’s not a surprise. Throughout his entire career, Elliott has been a high-end producer, putting up fantasy RB1 performances in 68% of his games per RotoViz NFL Stat Explorer).
In just three regular-season games over the past four-plus years has Elliott been anything worse than a fantasy RB2. With Zeke, you know what you’re getting.
The Cowboys are dealing with key issues along the offensive line, and that’s suboptimal for Elliott, who has long benefitted from strong blocking. Left tackle Tyron Smith (neck) returned to action in Week 4, but center Joe Looney (knee) exited the game early and is expected to miss Week 5. Given that Pro-Bowl center Travis Frederick retired this offseason, the Cowboys are perilously thin at the position.
On top of that, starting right tackle La’el Collins (hip, IR) is out for the year, and last week replacement Terence Steele was benched for third-stringer Brandon Knight.
This offensive line is no longer the road-grating unit of old.
But, honestly, for this week at least, that probably doesn’t matter: The Cowboys are double-digit home favorites. Zeke should be fed a lot of pigskin this Sunday, and volume is everything. I expect Elliott to benefit from a run-leaning game script in a contest the Cowboys handily win.
I don’t have numbers to back this up, but there is no way the Cowboys don’t beat the Giants by at least 10 points this week.
This is a get-right spot for the defense: These guys know Jason Garrett’s crusty offense better than anyone.
Cowboys in a blowout.
— Matthew Freedman (@MattFtheOracle) October 5, 2020
Elliott’s matchup with the Giants is exploitable. Yes, they are No. 11 with a -22.8% rush-defense DVOA (per Football Outsiders). But I think that number is suspect. They have been extraordinarily fortunate with their matchups. In Week 1, the Steelers lost starter James Conner to injury early in the game. In Week 3, the 49ers were without top backs Raheem Mostert and Tevin Coleman. And in Week 4, the Rams were without second-round rookie and future Hall-of-Famer Cam Akers.
The Giants have faced only one true starting running back this year: David Montgomery in Week 2, and he was 16-82-0 rushing and 3-45-1 receiving on three targets for 21.7 PPR and 18.7 STD points.
This run defense is probably not what it seems — and the Giants are No. 32 with a 42.7% pass-defense DVOA against running backs. As a receiver especially, the suddenly target-laden Elliott could dominate.
A must-start top-three RB1 in season-long leagues, Elliott is a cash-game lock and high-end tournament option in DFS.
Zeke is the No. 1 running back in the Raybon Model for DraftKings, where he has position-high median, ceiling and floor projections.
Salaries: $7,800 DraftKings, $9,000 FanDuel
Clyde Edwards-Helaire: Kansas City Chiefs (-13) vs. Las Vegas Raiders, 56.5 O/U
The Chiefs have a slate-high 34.75-point implied Vegas total, and Edwards-Helaire is a 21-year-old first-round double-digit home favorite facing the Raiders.
This is the signal, Jerry. This is the signal.
In four games, the Raiders have allowed five backs to go off.
- Christian McCaffrey (Week 1): 28.5 PPR, 25.5 STD | 23-97-2 | 3-38-0, four targets
- Alvin Kamara (Week 2): 38.4 PPR, 29.4 STD | 13-79-2 | 9-95-0, nine targets
- Sony Michel (Week 3): 16.0 PPR, 14.0 STD | 9-117-0 | 2-23-0, two targets
- Rex Burkhead (Week 3): 34.8 PPR, 27.8 STD | 6-49-2 | 7-49-1, 10 targets
- Devin Singletary (Week 4): 18.6 PPR, 13.6 STD | 18-55-1 rushing | 5-21-0, six targets
If McCaffrey and Kamara dominate you, fine. You move on. If Singletary does it, it’s not great, but you get over it. But if Burkhead and Michel both do it — in the same game — then you evaluate your existence. You’re not living right.
Right now, the Raiders are living wrong. They’re No. 30 with an 11.9% rush-defense DVOA. They can’t stop anyone on the ground.
This almost goes without saying, but through four weeks opposing backfields are No. 1 against the Raiders with 30.3 fantasy points per game on 85-455-7 rushing and 31-276-1 receiving.
Edwards-Helaire probably has the slate’s best matchup. If I didn’t know better, I’d say this looks like a good spot for Edwards-Helaire.
Although he’s yet to have a truly massive game, the rookie has produced to open his career.
- Week 1 (vs. HOU): 19.8 PPR, 19.8 STD | 25-138-1 | 0-0-0, two targets
- Week 2 (at LAC): 13.0 PPR, 7.0 STD | 10-38-0 | 6-32-0, eight targets
- Week 3 (at BAL): 18.4 PPR, 13.4 STD | 20-64-0 | 5-70-0, six targets
- Week 4 (vs. NE): 12.1 PPR, 9.1 STD | 16-64-0 | 3-27-0, three targets
Most importantly, he’s getting elite opportunities, ranking No. 6 at the position with 20.0 expected fantasy points per game (per RotoViz Screener).
For what it’s worth, Chiefs head coach Andy Reid is 28-14-1 against the spread (ATS) vs. divisional opponents in his Kansas City tenure. That’s good for a 30.6% return on investment (ROI, per our Bet Labs database).
On top of that, quarterback Patrick Mahomes is 26-12-2 ATS (34% ROI), including the postseason. It’s not hard to imagine the Chiefs blowing out the Raiders and gifting Edwards-Helaire a run-heavy game script full of goal-line opportunities. You can bet on this game at DraftKings.
Edwards-Helaire is a top-six RB1 in season-long leagues and strong option in all DFS contests. In GPPs especially, consider stacking him with Mahomes. The sample is small, but in his four games the rookie has had a 0.62 correlation with his quarterback (per our FantasyLabs Correlations Tool). If Edwards-Helaire has a big game, Mahomes might too. For tournaments, use our Lineup Builder to stack the receiving back with his passer.
Edwards-Helaire is the No. 1 running back in the Bales, CSURAM88, Levitan and Freedman Models for DraftKings, where he has a position-high nine Pro Trends. He’s also the top option in the Levitan Model for FanDuel.
Salaries: $6,800 DraftKings, $7,900 FanDuel
James Robinson: Jacksonville Jaguars (+6.5) at Houston Texans, 54 O/U
A two-time Walter Payton Award finalist for FCS player of the year, the undrafted rookie out of Illinois State has blown me away. No running back this year has exceeded expectations more than Robinson based on our Plus/Minus metric. He has outperformed in every game (per our FantasyLabs Trends Tool).
- Week 1 (vs. IND): 10.0 PPR, 9.0 STD | 16-62-0 | 1-28-0, one target
- Week 2 (at TEN): 21.0 PPR, 18.0 STD | 16-102-1 | 3-18-0, four targets
- Week 3 (vs. MIA): 30.9 PPR, 24.9 STD | 11-46-2 | 6-83-0, six targets
- Week 4 (at CIN): 14.7 PPR, 10.7 STD | 17-75-0 | 4-32-0, four targets
That Robinson is on a bad 1-3 team and still the No. 8 fantasy back is incredibly impressive, especially considering that he entered training camp No. 5 on the depth chart behind starter Leonard Fournette, change-of-pace receiving back Chris Thompson and veteran grinders Ryquell Armstead and Devine Ozigbo.
What catches my eye most about Robinson is that he has been a strong receiver out of the backfield, ranking No. 1 among all backs with 10.7 yards per target, No. 3 with 2.60 yards per route and No. 6 with 40.3 air yards and yards after the catch (AirYAC) per game (per RotoViz NFL Player Statistical Summary).
AirYAC is a leading indicator of fantasy output.
That Robinson ranks so highly in these metrics suggests that what we’ve seen out of him so far is not a fluke.
Although small-school prospects tend not to be elite athletes, Robinson defies that stereotype. His speed (4.64-second 40-yard dash) at the combine didn’t impress, but he was fast enough for his size (5-foot-9, 219 pounds), and he displayed near-elite explosiveness (40-inch vertical and 125-inch broad jumps), agility (7.03-second three-cone, 4.19-second short shuttle) and strength (24 bench-press reps).
With his total performance, Robinson exhibited 89th-percentile 127.5 SPARQ athleticism (per Player Profiler), and that’s more than sufficient to be a productive NFL back.
Entering the year, I expected nothing from Robinson. I knew he produced in college.
- 2019 (Senior, 15 games): 364-1,899-18 rushing | 16-80-0 receiving
- 2018 (Junior, 11 games): 205-1,290-12 rushing | 21-164-1 receiving
- 2017 (Sophomore, 11 games): 165-933-12 rushing | 9-75-0 receiving
I knew that in his final season he literally carried his team to the FCS championship game.
But a lot of small-school runners put up big numbers in the FCS and then do nothing in the NFL. I expected Robinson to perform similarly as a professional. I was magnificently wrong.
He has seized full control of the Jags backfield.
James Robinson market share of Jaguars carries:
– Weeks 1-4: 69%
– Weeks 2-4: 69%
– Weeks 3-4: 76%
– Week 4: 85%Robinson started out with an extremely nice backfield role, and it has only expanded since then.
— Matthew Freedman (@MattFtheOracle) October 7, 2020
In the games they’ve played, only Derrick Henry, Christian McCaffrey, Josh Jacobs, Joe Mixon and Ezekiel Elliott have a higher market share of team carries than Robinson does.
With his pass-catching ability, Robinson looks like a game script-independent producer, and he has a strong matchup against the Texans, who are No. 29 with a 4.0% rush-defense DVOA.
For the season, opposing backfields are No. 3 against the Texans with 27.9 fantasy points per game on 121-651-6 rushing and 12-105-0 receiving.
Robinson is on the RB1/2 borderline in season-long leagues and a cash-game candidate in DFS, especially on FanDuel, where he has the No. 12 running back salary but the No. 5 median projection.
Robinson is the No. 1 back in the Raybon and Freedman Models for FanDuel, where he has a position-high 98% Bargain Rating.
Salaries: $6,700 DraftKings, $6,600 FanDuel
David Johnson: Houston Texans (-6) vs. Jaguars, 54 O/U
In the second half of last season, the Jags were destroyed by almost every running back to face them. Get ready to peruse a long list.
Is it worth my time to type all of this out? Actually, it probably is, because this definitely won’t be the last time a back facing the Jags tops our Models.
- Carlos Hyde (Week 9): 14.0 PPR, 14.0 STD | 19-160-0
- Duke Johnson (Week 9): 19.1 PPR, 14.1 STD | 7-13-1 | 5-68-0, five targets
- BYE WEEK (Week 10): The Jags somehow made their run defense worse during the bye.
- Marlon Mack (Week 11): 16.9 PPR, 16.9 STD | 14-109-1
- Jonathan Williams (Week 11): 15.7 PPR, 14.7 STD | 13-116-0 | 1-31-0, one target
- Nyheim Hines (Week 11): 12.5 PPR, 9.5 STD | 3-11-1 | 3-24-0, four targets
- Derrick Henry (Week 12): 28.5 PPR, 27.5 STD | 19-159-2 | 1-16-0, one target
- Peyton Barber (Week 13): 18.4 PPR, 18.4 STD | 17-44-2
- Austin Ekeler (Week 14): 31.3 PPR, 27.3 STD | 8-101-0 | 4-112-1, five targets
- Melvin Gordon III (Week 14): 19.4 PPR, 14.4 STD | 12-55-1 | 5-29-0, five targets
- Josh Jacobs (Week 15): 12.9 PPR, 10.9 STD | 24-89-0 | 2-20-0, three targets
- Devonta Freeman (Week 16): 33.7 PPR, 24.7 STD | 13-53-1 | 9-74-1, 10 targets
- Brian Hill & Qadree Ollison (Week 16): 12.9 PPR, 12.9 STD | 8-69-1
- Marlon Mack (Week 17): 19.7 PPR, 19.7 STD | 15-77-2 | 0-0-0, one target
- Nyheim Hines (Week 17): 8.6 PPR, 5.6 STD | 7-34-0 | 3-22-0, five targets
I know the suspense must be killing you: The Jags have perhaps been a little better against running backs this year, but not by much.
- Nyheim Hines (Week 1): 27.3 PPR, 19.3 STD | 7-28-1 | 8-45-1, eight targets
- Jonathan Taylor (Week 1): 14.9 PPR, 8.9 STD | 9-22-0 | 6-67-0 six targets
- Marlon Mack (Week 1, injured): 8.6 PPR, 5.6 STD | 4-26-0 | 3-30-0, three targets
- Derrick Henry (Week 2): 8.4 PPR, 8.4 STD | 25-84-0 | 0-0-0, two targets
- Myles Gaskin & Jordan Howard (Week 3): 20.6 PPR, 15.6 STD | 25-67-1 | 5-29-0, five targets
- Joe Mixon (Week 4): 42.1 PPR, 36.1 STD | 25-151-2 | 6-30-1, six targets
I’m honestly tempted to end the analysis now — because the matchup is all that matters.
Here’s a flow chart that might help.
- Is this player a running back? If no, stop. If yes, continue.
- Is the player facing the Jaguars? If no, stop. If yes, continue.
- Is the player a guy who gets snaps? If no, stop. If yes, continue.
- Is the player relatively healthy at kickoff? If no, maybe play him. If yes, definitely play him.
Follow the flow chart. Play Johnson.
He is no longer the 2016 All-Pro version of himself. The league-high 2,118 yards and 20 touchdowns he compiled in those halcyon “Jam ‘Em In” days are a distant memory.
But Johnson is 51-197-2 rushing and 9-100-0 receiving on 14 targets through four games. That’s not terrible. He still looks like the guy who had 1,386 yards and 10 touchdowns two years ago, and that guy is good enough to go off against this Jaguars defense, especially as a home favorite.
An RB2 in season-long leagues, Johnson is a viable mid-range play in DFS, especially on DraftKings, where has the No. 21 running back salary bit the Nos. 12 median and ceiling projections.
Johnson is the No. 1 back in the Koerner Model for DraftKings, where he has a position-high +4.11 Projected Plus/Minus.
Salaries: $5,200 DraftKings, $6,400 FanDuel
Todd Gurley: Atlanta Falcons (-1) vs. Carolina Panthers, 54.5 O/U
Gurley and Johnson are virtually indistinguishable.
Todd Gurley & David Johnson are doppelgängers.
– Drafted in 2015
– Had early All-Pro success w/ three-down skill sets
– Jettisoned this offseason
– Low-efficiency TD-dependent backs on second teams
– Slower and thicker than molasses
– Week 5 home favorites w/ soft matchups pic.twitter.com/UMYrMLguQ9— Matthew Freedman (@MattFtheOracle) October 7, 2020
In the words of Austin Powers disguised as Richie Cunningham, “Allow myself to introduce myself.”
Whatever your thoughts are on Johnson this week, they’re probably similar to your thoughts on Gurley. They’re the same guy.
There’s nothing special about what Gurley has done this year. Sure, he has scored four touchdowns. And if he keeps that up, his final numbers will look good enough, just as they did last year, when he had 1,064 yards and 14 touchdowns from scrimmage in 15 games.
But he was bad last year, and he has been bad in 2020. As a runner, he has just 3.9 yards per attempt. He’s No. 32 with 2.68 YCO/A.
And as a receiver he has been unforgivable, producing a measly nine yards on only eight targets.
Woody Allen’s Annie Hall starts with this monologue:
There’s an old joke. Uh, two elderly women are at a Catskill mountain resort, and one of them says: “Boy, the food at this place is really terrible.” The other one says, “Yeah, I know, and such small portions.” Well, that’s essentially how I feel about life.
And that’s essentially how I feel about Gurley’s receiving workload. I mean, 1.1 yards per target and 0.14 yards per route? It’s time to put this workhorse out to pasture. His days of dependable use are done.
In theory, Gurley should have a run-heavy game script as a home favorite, but I’m skeptical. Should the 0-4 Falcons really be favored in this game? The line opened at -3.5 and has been bet to -2. I expect that it will continue to move toward the Panthers as we approach Sunday. By kickoff, they might even be favored.
I’m sure you’ll be shocked to learn that I’m betting on the Panthers. Underdog opponents are an A-graded 33-18 ATS (25.5% ROI) against Falcons HC Dan Quinn.
I can’t imagine not betting against the Falcons this weekend. You can bet on this game at FanDuel. I very much doubt that this will be a 20-touch performance for Gurley.
Cue Curb Your Enthusiasm music: Having said that, I see why Gurley is popping in one of our Models: He’s the clear lead back on a dynamic offense favored at home in a game with a high over/under that just keeps going up (51 to 54.5).
And of course there’s the matchup. Last year, the Panthers were No. 31 with a 55.1 PFF run-defense grade. This year, they are No. 32 with a funereal mark of 35.0.
I don’t want to play Gurley this weekend, but I’m also a guy who has literally zero exposure to Gurley across my redraft, best ball and dynasty portfolios. I don’t want to play him any weekend.
But if there ever were a spot to play him, this is the one.
A season-long RB2, Gurley is a mid-range option in DFS and the No. 1 back in the SportsGeek Model for both DraftKings and FanDuel.
Salaries: $5,700 DraftKings, $6,700 FanDuel
Kenyan Drake: Arizona Cardinals (-7) at New York Jets, 47 O/U
What do I think of Drake in comparison to someone like, say, James Robinson?
I prefer James Robinson. What a weird world this is.
— Matthew Freedman (@MattFtheOracle) October 7, 2020
Yep, this is where we are with Drake. He entered the season as a top-12 back in season-long leagues. Now people are simply hoping to unload him for an undrafted rookie four games into his NFL career — and they can’t do it.
This is the fourth straight week Drake has topped some of our Models, and a lot of what I said in last week’s RB breakdown still applies.
Through four weeks, Drake has been outproduced as a rusher by his quarterback (per RotoViz).
- Kyler Murray (four games): 32-265-4 | +29.7 rushing points over expectation
- Kenyan Drake (four games): 67-254-1 | -8.1 rushing points over expectation
And despite his pass-catching prowess (135-1,061-6 in 2017-19), Drake has just 20 yards receiving on five targets this year.
He entered Week 4 with 18-plus opportunities (carries plus targets) in each game this year — and then he had just 13 carries and no targets. Ugh.
Even so, Drake has never had a snap rate lower than 64% since joining the Cardinals in Week 9 last year, and despite his recent month-long meh-burger, Drake has done well enough in his 12 games with Arizona.
- Fantasy production: 16.5 PPR, 13.7 STD points per game
- Football production: 190-897-9 rushing | 33-191-0 receiving, 40 targets
He has disappointed in 2020, but Drake has a three-down skill set and nearly an every-down workload.
On paper, Drake’s matchup isn’t good. The Jets are No. 7 with a -29.1% rush-defense DVOA and No. 6 with a -30.0% pass-defense DVOA against running backs.
But that probably doesn’t matter. Even though the Jets defense is strong against running backs on a per-opportunity basis, the Jets offense is unable to sustain drives, which means that opposing backs get extra carries and targets and are thus able to overcome their relative inefficiency.
On the season, opposing backfields are No. 8 in the NFL with 24.3 fantasy points per game on 100-457-5 rushing and 24-154-1 receiving.
If the Cardinals can establish a lead against the 0-4 Jets, Drake should get the opportunity to produce. And I think it’s reasonable to assume the Cardinals will have a positive game script: They’re big favorites, and HC Kliff Kingsbury is 6-2-2 ATS (36.2% ROI) on the road.
Opponents are 4-0 ATS (99.3% ROI) against the Jets this year. You can bet on this game at William Hill.
A season-long RB2, Drake is likely to be a low-owned tournament play in DFS and is most attractive on FanDuel, where has the No. 12 ceiling projection but is priced as the No. 18 back.
Drake is the top option in the Bales, CSURAM88 and Koerner Models for FanDuel.
Salaries: $5,700 DraftKings, $6,200 FanDuel
Running Backs With Week-Winning Upside
In this section, I highlight some of the running backs I especially like as upside season-long and DFS tournament plays.
Kareem Hunt, Cleveland Browns (+2) vs. Indianapolis Colts, 46 O/U: The Colts are No. 1 with a 73.4 PFF defensive grade and have allowed a league-low one touchdown to opposing running backs, but Hunt could have a massive workload without teammate Nick Chubb (knee, IR). In Hunt’s 32 career regular-season games with eight-plus carries, he has produced …
… and I bet he hits that threshold in Week 5. Salaries: $6,500 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel
Mike Davis, Carolina Panthers (+1) at Atlanta Falcons, 54.5 O/U: Over the past two weeks, Davis has played the Christian McCaffrey role to perfection with 29-130-1 rushing and 13-72-1 receiving on 15 targets. In his two games as a starter, Davis is No. 5 in the NFL with a 37% market share of his team’s total opportunities. Salaries: $6,400 DraftKings, $6,800 FanDuel
Josh Jacobs, Las Vegas Raiders (+13) at Kansas City Chiefs, 56.5 O/U: No. 8 among all running backs with 18.1 expected fantasy points per game, Jacobs is being used like the 22-year-old big-bodied second-year first-rounder he is. The Chiefs have a funnel defense that ranks No. 1 against the pass but No. 27 against the run (-27.4% DVOA vs. 3.1%). Salaries: $6,300 DraftKings, $8,200 FanDuel
Jonathan Taylor, Indianapolis Colts (+2) at Cleveland Browns, 46 O/U: The matchup isn’t especially exploitable, but Taylor is pacing for 1,360 yards and eight touchdowns — and he hasn’t even been all that impressive. At some point, the next Adrian Peterson will start to perform like 2007 Adrian Peterson. Salaries: $6,200 DraftKings, $7,100 FanDuel
Devin Singletary, Buffalo Bills at Tennessee Titans (Off the Board): Because of the Titans’ COVID-19 situation, we don’t know yet if this game will actually play, but if it does, Singletary could go off against an unprepared and depleted defense. Teammate Zack Moss (toe) is uncertain to play, and in his two games without Moss this year Singletary is 31-126-1 rushing and 9-71-0 receiving on 11 targets. Salaries: $5,900 DraftKings, $6,300 FanDuel
Antonio Gibson, Washington Football Team (+7.5) vs. Los Angeles Rams, 45 O/U: The athletic third-round rookie has had 12-18 opportunities and a touchdown in each of the past three games, and last week he had his biggest performance yet as a professional with 13-46-1 rushing and 4-82-0 receiving on five targets.
Antonio Gibson is wearing a Mighty Ducks jersey. Plz adjust all ranks accordingly. pic.twitter.com/Vz2hM7DMKM
— C.D. Carter (@CDCarter13) October 4, 2020
He’s the arbitrage version of Jonathan Taylor. Salaries: $5,000 DraftKings, $5,800 FanDuel
Myles Gaskin, Miami Dolphins (-9) at San Francisco 49ers, 47.5 O/U: The most well-rounded back on the team, Gaskin leads the backfield with 14.0 expected fantasy points per game, 48-192-0 rushing and 18-113-0 receiving. Gaskin could get easy targets in a pass-heavy game script, and the Dolphins might do better than expected, given that road underdogs are 10-3-1 ATS (42.5% ROI) against HC Kyle Shanahan’s 49ers. Salaries: $4,800 DraftKings, $5,500 FanDuel
Devonta Freeman, New York Giants (+9.5) at Dallas Cowboys, 54 O/U: I don’t think Freeman will have a big game, but I could be wrong, given that he had 15 opportunities last week. The Cowboys rank No. 29 with a 42.8 PFF run-defense grade and are without linebackers Leighton Vander Esch (collarbone, IR) and Sean Lee (groin, IR). Salaries: $4,600 DraftKings, $5,500 FanDuel
Damien Harris, New England Patriots (-8) vs. Denver Broncos, Total Off Board: If Harris had put up his 17-100-0 rushing performance on Sunday afternoon instead of Monday Night Football, he’d be maybe $1,000 more expensive in DFS. The Pats will have a ground-based offense in Week 5 with either Brian Hoyer or Jarrett Stidham (or Julian Edelman, LOL) at quarterback. Salaries: $4,300 DraftKings, $4,500 FanDuel
Duke Johnson, Houston Texans (-6) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars, 54 O/U: See Johnson, David. Follow the flow chart. Salaries: $4,100 DraftKings, $4,600 FanDuel
Brian Hill, Atlanta Falcons (-1) vs. Carolina Panthers, 54.5 O/U: With a backfield-leading 4.9 yards per carry and 6.0 yards per target, Hill might syphon off an increasing amount of Todd Gurley’s volume sooner rather than later. Opposing backfields are No. 5 against the Panthers with 27.5 fantasy points per game on 86-396-7 rushing and 37-244-1 receiving. Salaries: $4,000 DraftKings, $4,800 FanDuel
Gus Edwards, Baltimore Ravens (-13) vs. Cincinnati Bengals, 51 O/U: My favorite deep dynasty stash, Gus Bus could get extended run as a big home favorite, and he might be the team’s best per runner with his career average of 5.4 yards per carry. In each of the past two seasons he has been the NFL’s most no-nonsense North/South runner with Efficiency Grades of 2.78 and 2.93, and this year he’s No. 2 with a mark of 2.66. (per Next Gen Stats). Salaries: $4,000 DraftKings, $4,600 FanDuel
Matthew Freedman is 648-519-26 (55.5%) overall betting on the NFL. You can follow him in our free app.
The Editor-in-Chief of FantasyLabs, Freedman is commonly called the Oracle & the Labyrinthian.
Pictured above: David Johnson
Photo credit: Joe Sargent/Getty Images
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