The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Chase Burns (R) $11,000 Cincinnati Reds (-142) vs. New York Mets
Chase Burns had a poor start by his lofty standards last week, scoring “only” 17.20 DraftKings points against the Padres. He still struck out seven over 5.1 innings while allowing just two runs, which would be considered a great start for the vast majority of MLB arms. However, due to his massive ownership, he’s now seen his salary hit $11,000 for the first time.
Not that the honor isn’t well-deserved. Burns is averaging more than 22 DraftKings points per game, which is notable on a slate where we don’t have a single pitcher projected for more than 20. His 29.6% strikeout rate is still lagging his swinging strike rate, meaning he should be striking out well over 30% of his opponents, with a 2.14 ERA.
That’s not even considering the matchup. The Mets have started to come around a bit in recent weeks but still rank 25th in wRC+ against righties. At worst, this is a roughly average matchup for Burns, but there’s a case it’s a strongly positive one. The Mets are one of just two teams on the slate with a team total below four runs.
Burns has a fairly wide gap in median and ceiling projections over the rest of the field, though he’s also $2,500 more expensive than any other starter. With his price tag, he’s not quite a “must play,” but he has the best chance of breaking the slate with a massive score.
MLB DFS Value Pick
Ryne Nelson (R) $6,500 Arizona Diamondbacks (-130) vs. Los Angeles Angels
Ryne Nelson narrowly squeaks into the top Pts/Sal projection on the slate today, with the matchup doing a lot of the heavy lifting. As has been the case for at least a season and a half, the Angels are a roughly league-average lineup in terms of run production but strikeout at an absurd rate. Their 24.9% mark against righties is the highest in the league by nearly a full percent.
That creates a high-variance situation for opposing pitchers. If Nelson is missing bats, he’s likely to have a very strong score, especially relative to his salary. However, he comes into the game with an ERA (and ERA predictors) over 5.00, so it wouldn’t be a shock if the Angels are able to get to him.
Typically I use the value pick section to discuss solid options for cash games, but given the wide range of outcomes for Nelson, that’s not really the case here. He is, however, an interesting budget option for tournaments. That’s important if you’re trying to play Chase, as there are plenty of high-upside hitters we need salary for.
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MLB DFS Tournament Picks
Shota Imanaga (L) $8,500 Chicago Cubs (-208) vs. Colorado Rockies
This is the second straight start against the Rockies for Shota Imanaga, who struck out seven over five scoreless innings for a total of 22.85 DraftKings points in the previous matchup. He’s $500 more expensive this time, but that’s a small price to pay considering the venue change: the last start was at Coors, and this one is at Wrigley. The weather is terrible for pitchers in this game, but it’s still an upgrade over playing in Denver, and Colorado is the worst team against lefties in every major category. Factoring in price, Imanaga is my favorite pitcher on the slate, with the second-best median and ceiling projection.
Mackenzie Gore (L) $7,600 Texas Rangers (-171) vs. Minnesota Twins
Gore, and by extension the Rangers, have some of the best Vegas data on the slate despite his relatively cheap price tag. Minnesota’s 3.6-run implied total is the lowest on the board, as our projected lineups have them without three of their four top hitters between injuries and bats that typically sit against left-handed pitching. Gore hasn’t been great this year, with his ERA and underlying numbers all in the low fours and a 24.6% strikeout rate, but he’s been solid, which is probably enough to put up some good numbers against the Twins relative to his modest salary.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model when generated by rating using our tournament model belongs to the Chicago Cubs:
There’s a ton of solid offensive options on the slate, but the Cubs narrowly edge them out with their 5.7-run total. As mentioned in the section on Imanaga, the weather in Chicago tonight is a massive boost to hitters. Specifically, Weather Edge is showing a 49% boost to home runs and 18% to total scoring.
My initial reaction was “Wow, that must be over a sample size of three games,” but no, there have been 168 past contests that roughly match the forecast tonight. Unlike the Rockies, the Cubs collectively are great at putting the bat on the ball, with a bottom-ten strikeout rate.
That’s a problem for opposing pitcher Michael Lorenzen ($5,500), who has just a 17.2% strikeout rate to go along with a 7.54 ERA. The Cubs should have no problem putting balls in play and letting the Windy City do its magic. Plus, they’re relatively cheap, with their top stack priced a few thousand dollars of salary below the other teams with similar totals.
Not interested in messing around with optimizer settings? No worries, you can use our MLB DFS Simulations and let it find the best way to control your stacks, exposure, correlations, and more!
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Nick Kurtz 1B ($6,300) Athletics vs. Pittsburgh Pirates (Jared Jones)
One of those other similar totals belongs to the A’s, who check in just one-tenth of a run below the Cubs today. Most of the reason their collective salary is so high is due to Kurtz, who has seen his price tag continue to creep up all season. For good reason, though, as he’s been a top-five hitter in baseball in terms of wRC+.
While the A’s are back in Sacramento, which is a downgrade over the park factors in Las Vegas from last week, it’s still a great place to hit. The 110 overall factor since they began play there is second only to Coors Field (114) in all of baseball, plus the game time temperature is around 90 degrees, which is also a boost to bats.
I’m bullish on the A’s in general tonight, but Kurtz is the best one-off option. He leads all hitters in median projection tonight.
Brandon Lowe 2B ($5,400) Pittsburgh Pirates at Athletics (J.T. Ginn)
While Kurtz leads all hitters in median projection, his opponent Brandon Lowe has the highest ceiling projection – both of which are notable on a slate with Shohei Ohtani ($6,500) hitter-eligible.
Obviously, a large factor is that Lowe also gets to benefit from the park/weather combination in Sacramento. It’s also a relatively winnable matchup against J.T. Ginn ($7,700), who has a home ERA of 4.70 this season. Plus, Lowe feasts on right-handed pitching, as we can see in PlateIQ:
The Pirates in general are a solid choice tonight, with a 5.1-run implied total, but Lowe stands out. He’s also easy to fit around Cubs stacks, which is an added benefit.
Yordan Alvarez OF ($6,200) Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers (Troy Melton)
I’m not sure if the Astros are going to draw much interest tonight, with a sub-5 implied total that doesn’t stand out on a slate with plenty of stronger options on paper. I’m interested in them as a way to fade Troy Melton ($7,500), the Tigers starter who is due for some serious regression.
Melton has a 2.81 ERA despite a pitiful 13.7% strikeout rate, with his ERA predictors ranging from the mid-fours into the fives. Those numbers are likely to converge at some point, and Yordan Alvarez might have a lot to do with it.
He’s been the best hitter in baseball by a wide margin this season. His 193 wRC+ is 21 points higher than any other hitter – the same gap as there is between No. 2 and No. 13. He’s expensive, but that should keep his ownership down by his standards, making him a great GPP one-off if you can find the salary, or you could stack the Astros as a team.
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Pictured: Chase Burns
Photo Credit: Imagn
