The Week 5 NFL main slate kicks off on Sunday, Oct. 11, at 1 p.m. ET.
In this piece, I highlight the tight ends who stand out in our large suite of analytical fantasy tools, most specifically our FantasyLabs Models.
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Top Tight Ends in the FantasyLabs Models
There are three tight ends atop the individual Pro Models that Jonathan Bales, Peter Jennings (CSURAM88), Adam Levitan, Sean Koerner, Chris Raybon, Kevin McClelland (SportsGeek) and I have constructed.
Here’s where they place within our Week 5 fantasy football rankings (as of Friday afternoon).
- George Kittle: No. 1 (PPR) | No. 1 (Half PPR) | No. 1 (Standard)
- Travis Kelce: No. 2 (PPR) | No. 2 (Half PPR) | No. 2 (Standard)
- Jordan Akins: No. 20 (PPR) | No. 20 (Half PPR) | No. 20 (Standard)
FantasyLabs Positional Breakdowns
Check in throughout the week as I publish the rest of the positional breakdowns.
For more in-depth NFL analysis, check out The Action Network. For updates, see our FantasyLabs News Feed.
Odds as of Friday afternoon and via DraftKings Sportsbook, where you can get up to a $1,000 sign-up bonus today.
George Kittle: San Francisco 49ers (-9) vs. Miami Dolphins, 51.5 Over/Under
After missing Weeks 2 and 3 with a knee injury that he suffered in the season opener, Kittle dominated last week with a slate-leading 15-183-1 receiving performance on 15 targets.
It’s no real surprise, but Kittle is the No. 1 fantasy tight end this season with 24.7 PPR and 15.2 STD points per game (per RotoViz NFL Fantasy Summary).
In NFL history, no tight end has racked up more receiving yardage in his first three seasons than Kittle. Here’s a list of the top six.
- George Kittle (2017-19, 45 games): 2,945 yards | 2019 All-Pro
- Mike Ditka (1961-63, 42 games): 2,774 yards | Hall-of-Famer
- Rob Gronkowski (2010-12, 43 games): 2,663 yards | Future Hall-of-Famer
- Jimmy Graham (2010-12, 46 games): 2,648 yards | Maybe Hall-of-Famer?
- Kellen Winslow Sr. (1979-81, 39 games): 2,620 yards | Hall-of-Famer
- Antonio Gates (2003-05, 45 games): 2,454 yards | Future Hall-of-Famer
Insert here an obligatory statement about how we should adjust for era, etc., etc., but you get the idea: Kittle is already among the best tight ends ever.
What he has done since his second-season breakout has been especially spectacular if you look at some of the more advanced statistics like yards per route (including playoffs, per Pro Football Focus).
- 2020 (two games): 2.99 YPRR (2nd)
- 2019 (17 games): 2.87 YPRR (1st)
- 2018 (16 games): 2.82 YPRR (1st)
Through four weeks this year, Kittle is Nos. 1 & 3 with 0.37 PPR and 0.23 STD points per snap. On a per-play basis, he exhibits an almost machine-like routine excellence, which he has translated into nearly unrivaled weekly consistency. Since 2018, Kittle has been a fantasy TE1 in 75% of his regular-season games and worse than a TE2 in just two games (per RotoViz NFL Stat Explorer).
This season, Kittle is No. 1 at the position with a 0.61 WOPR and 112.5 AirYAC per game.
WOPR is a stat created by Josh Hermsmeyer. WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating) combines target share and air-yard share. AirYAC is my own concoction. AirYAC (air yards plus yards after the catch) is a leading and simple-to-understand indicator of fantasy output.
Bottom line: Kittle good.
I like the matchup for Kittle against the Dolphins, even though at first glance it doesn’t look especially exploitable.
Against tight ends, the Dolphins are No. 16 with a -2.7% pass-defense DVOA, per Football Outsiders. This year, opposing tight end units are No. 27 with 4.8 fantasy points per game. Last year, they were a middle-of-the-road No. 18 with 7.4 points per game.
But the Dolphins are objectively not good against the pass. In fact, they’re horrible. This year, they are No. 32 with a 33.4 PFF coverage grade. Last year, they were No. 32 with a 38.9 grade.
And since last season they have had a very soft schedule of opposing tight ends, but the few guys they’ve faced who are comparable to Kittle have done well.
- Mark Andrews (Week 1, 2019): 24.8 PPR, 16.8 STD | 8-108-1, eight targets
- Zach Arts & Dallas Goedert (Week 13, 2019): 18.0 PPR, 9.0 STD | 9-90-0, 13 targets
The matchup is almost certainly advantageous for Kittle, especially if you look at the 2020 PFF coverage grades of the three defenders who will be on him most.
- Strong safety Eric Rowe (four games): 47.7
- Linebacker Kyle Van Noy (four games): 40.2
- Linebacker Jerome Baker (four games): 33.3
And, really, the matchup almost doesn’t matter with Kittle. The guy is always better than the defenders he faces.
Full disclosure: I’m betting against the 49ers this weekend. Last week, they lost at home to the previously winless Eagles and they are dealing with a whole host of injuries, especially on defense.
- EDGEs Nick Bosa (knee, IR), Dee Ford (back, IR) & Ziggy Ansah (arm)
- LB Dre Greenlaw (quad)
- DT Solomon Thomas (knee, IR)
- CBs Richard Sherman (calf, IR), Emmanuel Moseley (concussion), K’Waun Williams (knee/hip), Ahkello Witherspoon (hamstring) & Dontae Johnson (groin)
I think Dolphins quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick should be able to work some of his FitzMagic to keep this game close, and it’s not as if 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan has done well in the past when laying points at Levi’s Stadium.
Road underdogs are 10-3-1 against the spread (ATS) vs. Shanahan’s 49ers, good for a 42.5 return on investment (ROI, per our Bet Labs database).
You can bet on this game at DraftKings. In a close contest, the 49ers could have more of a pass-leaning game script than expected, resulting in an abundance of targets for Kittle.
A must-start top-three TE1 in season-long leagues, Kittle is an expensive but investable cash-game and tournament candidate in DFS.
Kittle is our unanimous No. 1 tight end on FanDuel, where he has a position-high +3.60 Projected Plus Minus as well as 10 Pro Trends.
Salaries: $6,600 DraftKings, $7,100 FanDuel
Travis Kelce: Kansas City Chiefs (-11.5) vs. Las Vegas Raiders, 55 O/U
No tight end in NFL history has more 1,000-yard seasons than Kelce, who this year has been just as dominant as ever at the age of 31.
- Week 1 (vs. HOU): 17.0 PPR, 11.0 STD | 6-50-1 receiving, six targets
- Week 2 (at LAC): 24.0 PPR, 15.0 STD | 9-90-1 receiving, 14 targets
- Week 3 (at BAL): 14.7 PPR, 8.7 STD | 6-87-0 receiving, seven targets
- Week 4 (vs. NE): 10.0 PPR, 7.0 STD | 3-70-0 receiving, seven targets
Since quarterback Patrick Mahomes became the full-time starter in 2018, Kelce has been a fantasy TE1 in 86% of his regular-season games.
In each season with Mahomes, Kelce has been a top-two AirYAC tight end, so it’s not a surprise that he has been one of the league’s best producers.
- 2020 (four games): 16.4 PPR (2nd), 10.4 STD (4th) | 93.0 AirYAC (2nd)
- 2019 (16 games): 16.0 PPR (1st), 10.0 STD (1st) | 102.1 AirYAC (1st)
- 2018 (16 games): 18.5 PPR (1st), 12.1 STD (1st) | 121.4 AirYAC (1st)
And the matchup … oh, boy.
It’s not as good as Rex Manning Day, but the biannual Kelce vs. Raiders smackdown is something to behold.
Checking to make sure @Ihartitz hasn’t already sent out this tweet …
Alright, I think we’re good.
Travis Kelce w/ Patrick Mahomes vs. Raiders:
– W13, 2019: 5-90-0 (9 targets)
– W2, 2019: 7-107-1 (9)
– W17, 2018: 5-62-0 (9)
– W13, 2018: 12-168-2 (13)Also, good morning.
— Matthew Freedman (@MattFtheOracle) October 9, 2020
Kelce brings his loving right to the Raiders’ front door.
Just look at the 2020 PFF grades of the three defenders who will cover Kelce the most.
- Strong safety Johnathan Abram (four games): 54.7
- Linebacker Nicholas Morrow (four games): 50.5
- Linebacker Cory Littleton (four games): 40.7
Get the rosé and black négligée ready, mon amour.
For what it’s worth, Chiefs head coach Andy Reid is 28-14-1 ATS (30.6% ROI).
On top of that, quarterback Patrick Mahomes is 26-12-2 ATS (34% ROI), including the postseason. It’s not hard to imagine the Chiefs absolutely smashing the Raiders. You can bet on this game at FanDuel.
The Chiefs have a slate-high 34-point implied Vegas total, and the Raiders are No. 31 with a 40.4 PFF coverage grade.
Say no more.
Kelce is a must-start top-three tight end every week in season-long leagues.
In DFS, Kelce feels expensive for cash games, but he’s a reasonable pay-up option for guaranteed prize pools. Over the past half decade, Kelce has had a 0.76 correlation with his quarterback (per our FantasyLabs Correlations Tool). If Kelce has a big game, Mahomes probably will too. For tournaments, use our Lineup Builder to stack Kelce with his passer.
Kelce is the No. 1 tight end in the Bales, CSURAM88, Levitan, Koerner, Raybon and Freedman Models for DraftKings, where he has position-high median, ceiling and floor projections.
Salaries: $6,400 DraftKings, $7,800 FanDuel
Jordan Akins: Houston Texans (-5.5) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars, 54 O/U
Akins (concussion/ankle) exited Week 4 early with a head injury and missed practice on Wednesday, but he practiced on Thursday and seems likely to play this weekend.
Akins hasn’t been a voluminous producer in 2020 with just 14-168-1 receiving on 15 targets. But he is No. 4 at the position with 11.2 yards per target, and he looked to be on his way to a big game with 3-46-0 receiving on three targets last week before exiting in the second quarter.
If Akins was to get more opportunities, he could have a big game.
Against the Jags, he might get those opportunities. They are No. 29 with a 32.2% pass-defense DVOA against tight ends and No. 32 with a 43.5% pass-defense DVOA overall.
Opposing tight ends are No. 6 in the league with 11.8 fantasy points per game against the Jags with 19-291-3 receiving.
A streaming option in deep season-long leagues, Akins is a pay-down, hold-your-nose punt play in DFS.
Akins is the top tight end in the SportsGeek Model.
Salaries: $3,300 DraftKings, $4,800 FanDuel
Tight Ends With Week-Winning Upside
In this section, I highlight some of the tight ends I especially like as upside season-long and DFS tournament plays.
Mark Andrews, Baltimore Ravens (-12) vs. Cincinnati Bengals, 50.5 O/U: Quarterback Lamar Jackson (knee/illness) missed practice on Wednesday and Thursday, so the Ravens offense might not be at peak capacity this weekend. But Andrews is on the positive side of his splits as a favorite (per RotoViz Game Splits App) …
… and last year he was 12-152-2 receiving on 16 targets in two games against the divisional rival Bengals. Salaries: $6,200 DraftKings, $7,500 FanDuel
Darren Waller, Las Vegas Raiders (+11.5) at Kansas City Chiefs, 55 O/U: No. 1 at the position with 17.0 expected fantasy points receiving per game and a 29% target share, Waller has a stellar 29-247-1 receiving line this season. Since his breakout last year, Waller has been the No. 1 tight end in fantasy as an underdog (per our FantasyLabs Trends Tool). Salaries: $5,900 DraftKings, $6,800 FanDuel
Dalton Schultz, Dallas Cowboys (-9) vs. New York Giants, 54 O/U: Since taking over as the starter in Week 2, Schultz is 17-208-2 receiving on 24 targets. He’s Nos. 4 & 7 with 12.4 expected fantasy points receiving and 75 AirYAC per game. Salaries: $4,800 DraftKings, $5,300 FanDuel
Evan Engram, New York Giants (+9) at Dallas Cowboys, 54 O/U: I feel as if I should have a blurb on Engram, so this is that blurb. The Cowboys rank No. 30 with a 43.6 PFF coverage grade and are without linebackers Leighton Vander Esch (collarbone, IR) and Sean Lee (groin, IR). Salaries: $4,600 DraftKings, $5,500 FanDuel
Eric Ebron, Pittsburgh Steelers (-7) vs. Philadelphia Eagles, 44.5 O/U: Coming off the Titans-proffered bye, Ebron’s prematurely aged 27-year-old body should be rested. After doing nothing in Week 1, he is 8-95-1 receiving in his two most recent games, and the Eagles are No. 32 with a 57.7% pass-defense DVOA. Salaries: $4,000 DraftKings, $5,100 FanDuel
Logan Thomas, Washington Football Team (+7.5) vs. Los Angeles Rams, 46.5 O/U: Perhaps the switch to quarterback Kyle Allen will improve the passing attack for the Footballers. Thomas is No. 6 at the position with a 20% target share and No. 11 with 10.6 expected fantasy points receiving per game. Salaries: $3,500 DraftKings, $4,900 FanDuel
Ian Thomas, Carolina Panthers (+1.5) at Atlanta Falcons, 53.5 O/U: Opposing tight ends are No. 1 against the Falcons with 18.4 fantasy points per game on 33-336-7 receiving, and Thomas had a season-high five targets and a touchdown last week. Underdog opponents are an A-graded 33-18 ATS (25.5% ROI) against Falcons head coach Dan Quinn. (You can bet on this game at William Hill.)
Salaries: $3,400 DraftKings, $4,700 FanDuel
Matthew Freedman is 649-519-26 (55.6%) overall betting on the NFL. You can follow him in our free app.
The Editor-in-Chief of FantasyLabs, Freedman is commonly called the Oracle & the Labyrinthian.
Pictured above: Travis Kelce
Photo credit: Jamie Squire/Getty Images
