The Week 14 NFL main slate kicks off on Sunday, Dec. 8, at 1 p.m. ET. In this piece, I highlight the tight ends who stand out in our large suite of analytical DFS Tools, most specifically our industry-leading FantasyLabs Models.
Top Tight Ends in the FantasyLabs Models
There are five tight ends atop the individual Pro Models that Jonathan Bales, Peter Jennings (CSURAM88), Adam Levitan, Sean Koerner, Chris Raybon, Kevin McClelland (SportsGeek) and I have constructed.
- George Kittle: $5,900 DraftKings, $6,700 FanDuel
- Darren Waller: $5,800 DraftKings, $6,200 FanDuel
- Hunter Henry: $5,100 DraftKings, $6,400 FanDuel
- Jared Cook: $4,200 DraftKings, $6,500 FanDuel
- Hayden Hurst: $2,500 DraftKings, $4,500 FanDuel
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George Kittle: San Francisco 49ers (+2.5) at New Orleans Saints, 44.5 Over/Under
Kittle (knee/ankle) has dealt with various injuries for much of the season, but he has played the past two weeks and practiced this week, so he should be active this weekend.
Kittle played a season-high 100% of the offensive snaps last week, but he had a season-worst two-reception, 17-yard receiving performance on just four targets. He even lost three yards on one carry.
Should we be worried?
Probably not.
The 49ers had a very run-heavy approach last week, and Kittle still ran routes on 22 of quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo’s 23 dropbacks.
Just the week before, Kittle had a position-best 6-129-1 masterpiece on six targets in his return from injury. He’s still the man.
There’s no point in pretending that his year-over-year production isn’t down (per our FantasyLabs Trends Tool).
- 2018 (16 games): 13.4 FanDuel points, +4.82 Plus/Minus, 68.8% Consistency Rating
- 2019 (10 games): 11.5 FanDuel points, +2.10 Plus/Minus, 60% Consistency Rating
But Kittle had an all-time great season last year. He was always likely to regress.
For the season, he’s the No. 3 fantasy tight end with 11.5 FanDuel points per game and No. 6 at the position with 84.3 air yards and yards after the catch combined per game (per AirYards.com).
In eight of 10 games, Kittle has been no worse than a high-end fantasy TE2, and in five games, he’s been a top-tier fantasy TE1 (per RotoViz NFL Stat Explorer).
There’s nothing special about Kittle’s matchup: The Saints are No. 15 in pass defense DVOA against tight ends (per Football Outsiders).
But Kittle is pretty much a matchup-proof player anyway, and over the past six weeks (including the bye), the Saints have seemingly become more exploitable, allowing the quintet of Charles Clay, Austin Hooper, Cameron Brate, Greg Olsen and Jaeden Graham to average 10.3 FanDuel points, 52.6 yards and 0.4 touchdowns on 6.6 targets and 5.2 receptions per game.
For good reason, Kittle seems likely to be one of the slate’s most popular tight ends. I tend to prefer the strategy of paying down at the position in cash games, but Kittle is in play in all formats.
Kittle is the No. 1 tight end in the Raybon Model for FanDuel, where he has position-high median and ceiling projections in our Models and a +2.59 Projected Plus/Minus. He’s also the top option in the Bales Model for DraftKings.
Kittle is the No. 1 tight end in our Week 14 fantasy football rankings.
Darren Waller: Oakland Raiders (+2.5) vs. Tennessee Titans, 47.5 O/U
Waller is going to be popular this week, especially on FanDuel, where he’s priced as the No. 8 tight end even though he’s No. 5 with 85.1 air yards and yards after the catch per game and No. 6 with 11.0 FanDuel points per game.
Last week, Waller had his position-best third 100-yard game of the season, and he seems to be in peak form. After a midseason lull that coincided with the ascendance of slot receiver Hunter Renfrow, Waller is reemerging within the Raiders offense now that Renfrow (ribs) is sidelined.
In his first season as a full-time tight end, Waller is having a great campaign. He leads the team with 87 targets, 66 receptions, 807 yards receiving and 1,021 air yards and yards after the catch combined. The passing offense flows through him.
Credit: Kelley L Cox-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Oakland Raiders tight end Darren Waller (83).
He’s yet to score fewer than 5.0 FanDuel points in any game this year. That number might not seem all that high as a floor, but only Austin Hooper and Travis Kelce in addition to Waller can say they’ve cleared that mark in every game played.
Despite having safeties Kevin Byard and Kenny Vaccaro, the Titans haven’t been great against tight ends this year. They’re No. 21 in pass defense DVOA against the position and have allowed a top-eight mark of 10.9 FanDuel points per game to tight ends.
Just last week, the Titans allowed Jacob Tamme clone Jack Doyle to rack up 16.3 FanDuel points and a 6-73-1 receiving line on 11 targets.
And the five tight ends most comparable to Waller in pricing to face the Titans — David Njoku, Eric Ebron, Austin Hooper, Hunter Henry and Travis Kelce — have averaged 13.8 FanDuel points per game against them with a +6.37 Plus/Minus and 100% Consistency Rating.
Waller’s matchup is probably better than most people expect.
Waller has a position-high 11 Pro Trends on FanDuel, where he’s the No. 1 tight end in the Bales, CSURAM88, Levitan, Koerner, SportsGeek and Freedman Models.
Hunter Henry: Los Angeles Chargers (-3) at Jacksonville Jaguars, 43 O/U
Last week, Henry easily had his worst game of the year, hitting season-low marks with three targets, two receptions and 10 yards.
But at least he scored a touchdown to bail ya out, right?
Nah.
Week 13 was nothing but naked pain for Henry investors.
And that means it’s time to buy shares.
Henry is the cheapest he’s been in six weeks, and he’s likely to have a single-digit ownership rate, and that’s too much of a discount for a guy who is No. 3 at the position with 89.5 air yards and yards after the catch per game and No. 6 with 14.4 DraftKings points per game.
Henry has provided good value this year with a +3.75 Plus/Minus, and he has an outstanding 75% Consistency Rating. In just two of eight games has he had fewer than 10 DraftKings points.
In his eight games this year, Henry has barely been outperformed by No. 1 wide receiver Keenan Allen, even though Allen has a large edge in target volume.
- Keenan Allen (Weeks 1, 6-13): 70 targets, 46 receptions, 517 yards, three touchdowns
- Hunter Henry (Weeks 1, 6-13): 57 targets, 41 receptions, 497 yards, three touchdowns
After quarterback Philip Rivers, Henry is as important to the Chargers offense as anyone else.
The Jaguars are No. 25 in pass defense DVOA against tight ends.
The two tight ends similar to Henry in pricing to face the Jags this year averaged a respectable 12.6 DraftKings points per game against them.
Long gone are the days when the Jags defense was an imposition to fantasy scoring. Henry has a fine matchup.
Henry is the No. 1 tight end in the CSURAM88, Levitan, Koerner and Raybon Models for DraftKings, where he has position-high marks with eight Pro Trends and a +2.80 Projected Plus/Minus.
Jared Cook: New Orleans Saints (-2.5) vs. San Francisco 49ers, 44.5 O/U
Cook is an intriguing option. Playing in the same game as George Kittle, Cook could have anywhere from one-half to one-eighth of his higher-priced peer’s ownership rate, which makes him a desirable pivot play. Also, because they both play tight end, Kittle and Cook aren’t likely to be stacked together, but Saints-49ers has shootout potential.
The Saints are at home, the Coors Field of fantasy football. With quarterback Drew Brees, the Saints have a 65-46-2 record to the over at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome, good for an A-graded 14.8% return on investment (including postseason, per Bet Labs).
If this game shoots out, then both Kittle and Cook could go off.
On paper, this looks like a tough matchup for Cook. Really tough. The 49ers are No. 2 in coverage grade (per Pro Football Focus) and DraftKings points per game allowed to tight ends with just 7.8.
And they are No. 1 in pass defense DVOA against the position.
But here’s the thing: Safety Jaquiski Tartt (ribs) exited Week 13 early and is yet to practice this week. He seems very questionable to play this week. An unheralded yet highly effective player, Tartt is the guy primarily responsible for defending tight ends for the 49ers.
In his diminished presence last week — Tartt had a season-low 58% snap rate — the Ravens heavily relied on tight ends Mark Andrews, Nick Boyle and Hayden Hurst, who combined for 20.5 DraftKings points on 7-75-1 receiving and 12 targets.
The Saints receivers will be challenged by cornerbacks Richard Sherman, Ahkello Witherspoon and K’Waun Williams, and although No. 1 wide receiver Michael Thomas will get his targets, the Saints could choose to rely on Cook more than they usually do if Tartt is out.
Cook was dreadful for the first month of the season, and he missed Weeks 7-8 to injury, but since Week 5, Cook has averaged 14.2 DraftKings points, 61.5 yards and 0.67 touchdowns on 5.8 targets and four receptions per game. And in this time frame, he’s been a fantasy TE1 in every game he’s played.
If Tartt is out, Cook will have massive upside, especially at his sub-5% projected ownership rate.
Team-specific production patterns can be analyzed with our FantasyLabs Correlations Tool, and in their six games together, Cook and Brees have had a strong 0.50 correlation in their production. If Cook has a big game, Brees could go off as well, even with the tough matchup. For guaranteed prize pools, use our Lineup Builder to stack Cook with his quarterback.
Cook is the No. 1 option in the Freedman Model for DraftKings, where he has a position-high 97% Bargain Rating.
Hayden Hurst: Baltimore Ravens (-6) at Buffalo Bills, 43.5 O/U
I don’t want to write about Hurst any more than you want to read about him, so let’s get this over with as quickly as possible.
Hurst has a bad matchup. The Bills have held tight ends to a league-low 7.5 DraftKings points per game. And he’s the No. 3 tight end on his team with a 40.4% snap rate.
But Hurst has a stone-minimum salary on DraftKings, and this year he’s yet to have an ownership rate of even 0.5% on the main slate. His downside is more than already priced into the market.
And what about his upside?
Over the past year, quarterback Lamar Jackson is easily No. 1 in the league with a 38.8% tight end target rate, and the Ravens heavily rely on multiple-tight end sets.
Last week, in a tough matchup for his wide receivers against the 49ers, Jackson relentlessly went to his tight ends, who accounted for 12 of his 23 attempts, seven of his 14 completions, 75 of his 105 yards passing and his one aerial touchdown.
The Ravens have a similar matchup this week. The Bills are No. 3 in PFF coverage grade. No. 1 wide receiver Marquise Brown is likely to be shadowed by emerging shutdown cornerback Tre’Davious White.
Since entering the league in 2017, White has allowed a catch rate of just 52.7%.
Because of the matchup, I expect the Ravens to ignore their wide receivers almost entirely and instead to line up in heavy sets with multiple tight ends and run the ball.
And when they do decide to pass, they will target tight ends, not receivers. From a betting perspective, I like the Ravens in this game, so I do think there will be some fantasy points to go around.
Although Hurst is No. 3 among Ravens tight ends, trailing Mark Andrews and Nick Boyle with just 147 routes, 29 targets, 23 receptions, 213 yards and one touchdown on the season, last week he did have four targets to Boyle’s two.
Only one month ago, Boyle was stacked with Jackson in the Week 10 Millionaire Maker-winning lineup, and all Boyle got in that game was four targets. He didn’t even score a touchdown.
A first-round draft pick just last year, Hurst is not an untalented player. At his salary, he provides a lot of roster flexibility, and with his almost nonexistent ownership rate, he will differentiate almost any lineup he’s in.
If Hurst gets 3-5 targets, his odds of scoring 10-plus DraftKings points have to be significantly higher than his likely sub-1% ownership rate, and given how tough the matchup is for the wide receivers, Hurst’s odds of getting 3-5 targets are probably greater than expected.
I can’t believe I just wrote that much about Hayden F—king Hurst.
He’s the No. 1 tight end in the SportsGeek Model for DraftKings, where he has strong 92% Bargain Rating.
Upside Tight Ends for Guaranteed Prize Pools
Travis Kelce, Kansas City Chiefs ($6,200 DK, $7,100 FD): Easily No. 1 at the position with 105.5 air yards and yards after the catch per game and No. 2 with 15.6 DraftKings points per game, Kelce is still Zeus on the mountain top. He leads all tight ends with his ceiling projection on DraftKings.
Austin Hooper, Atlanta Falcons ($6,000 DK, $6,600 FD): Hooper (knee) last played in Week 10, but he has practiced this week and is tentatively expected to suit up this weekend. Hooper has the toughest fantasy playoffs schedule of any tight end, starting with the Panthers this week. But he’s still the No. 1 fantasy tight end with 17.9 DraftKings and 14.1 FanDuel points per game.
Mark Andrews, Baltimore Ravens ($5,600 DK, $6,600 FD): Andrews is No. 4 among tight ends with 86.3 air yards and yards after the catch and 11.3 points per game on FanDuel, where he trails only Darren Waller with six Pro Trends. He’s No. 1 at the position with 0.31 targets per route and No. 2 with 2.79 yards per route run (per PFF).
Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Baltimore Ravens tight end Mark Andrews
Jack Doyle, Indianapolis Colts ($4,600 DK, $6,300 FD): Wide receivers T.Y. Hilton (calf) and Chester Rogers (knee, IR) and tight end Eric Ebron (ankle, IR) are out, so Doyle could see extra work. In his five Hilton-less games this year, Doyle has averaged 10.0 DraftKings points per game, and last week he was a top-three tight end with his 6-73-1 performance on 11 targets.
Kyle Rudolph, Minnesota Vikings ($4,400 DK, $4,800 FD): Against the Lions in Week 7, Rudolph went 5-58-1 receiving on six targets, and over the past six games, he has six touchdowns. The Vikings have a slate-high 28.25-point implied Vegas total, and Rudolph leads all tight ends with a 99% Bargain Rating on FanDuel.
Vance McDonald, Pittsburgh Steelers ($4,300 DK, $5,800 FD): The Cardinals have allowed a league-high 21.9 DraftKings points, 953 yards and 13 touchdowns to tight ends and are No. 32 in pass defense DVOA against the position. Last week, Tyler Higbee had a slate-best 7-107-1 performance against them. ‘Nuff said.
Ryan Griffin, New York Jets ($4,100 DK, $5,600 FD): In his nine games with quarterback Sam Darnold, Griffin has averaged 10.7 DraftKings points on 4.1 targets per game, and against the Dolphins in Week 9, he had a respectable 6-50-0 receiving on eight targets.
Mike Gesicki, Miami Dolphins ($4,000 DK, $5,400 FD): Since Ryan Fitzpatrick returned to the starting lineup in Week 7, Gesicki has averaged 5.6 targets per game and racked up three fantasy TE1 games, one of which came against the Jets in Week 9 with a 6-95-0 performance. The Jets are likely to be without Pro-Bowl safety Jamal Adams (ankle).
David Njoku, Cleveland Browns ($3,500 DK, $4,900 FD): Njoku (wrist) was injured early in Week 2, but he’s expected to return from IR this week. Entering the year as a potential breakout star, Njoku had 4-37-1 receiving on six targets in Week 1. In two divisional matchups last year with the Bengals, Njoku averaged 16.8 DraftKings points with a +9.18 Plus/Minus. The Bengals are No. 26 in pass defense DVOA against tight ends. Njoku in cash games? I’m thinking about it.
Credit: Ken Blaze-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Cleveland Browns tight end David Njoku (85).
Noah Fant, Denver Broncos ($3,400 DK, $4,800 FD): In his five games since the team traded wide receiver Emmanuel Sanders, Fant has averaged 6.2 targets. In that span, he’s been no worse than a fantasy TE2 in four games, with one slate-crushing 3-115-1 performance.
Ian Thomas, Carolina Panthers ($2,500 DK, $4,000 FD): Starter Greg Olsen (concussion) suffered a head injury in Week 13 and is out for Week 14. Thomas has done little this year, but last year he was the No. 5 fantasy tight end with 10.5 FanDuel points per game over the final month of the season as the Olsen fill-in, and last week he had a 4-24-0 stat line on four targets in one half of action. Priced at the stone minimum on both DraftKings and FanDuel, Thomas is a legitimate option for cash games and tournaments.
FantasyLabs Positional Breakdowns
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Matthew Freedman is the Editor-in-Chief of FantasyLabs. He has a dog and sometimes a British accent. In Cedar Rapids, Iowa, he’s known only as The Labyrinthian.
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