Week 5 caps off with a showdown in Las Vegas between the Packers and Raiders at 8:15 p.m. ET. The Raiders are listed as 2.5-point home favorites, while the total sits at 45.5 points.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate DFS projections:
NFL DFS Stud Picks
Former Packer Davante Adams gets to face his former team for the first time. He carries a questionable tag coming into this contest but is expected to play.
Adams leads the NFL in target share and air yards percentage, with 20 and 13 targets in their last two games. If Jaire Alexander is good to go, we can likely expect shadow coverage. I often talk about matchups not mattering with the top players in the league, and that is still the case. Alexander may be limited even if he plays.
If you want to make a case against Adams, we saw Alexander shut down Justin Jefferson late last season. I have no questions about Adams in this matchup, but if you’re trying to build the confidence for a fade, I’d start there.
Teammate Josh Jacobs follows, and his season has been defined by inefficiency. He’s averaged just 2.7 yards per carry on the year but has the volume to make up for it. He’s handled 80 of 95 backfield touches on the year and has topped 20 touches in three of four games.
We all just watched David Montgomery find the end zone three times against Green Bay, and Jacobs could see a similar fortune. Las Vegas’ running game as a whole isn’t as good as Detroit, but the matchup is advantageous nonetheless.
Aaron Jones is questionable for this matchup despite having since last Thursday to prepare. Jones was reported to be on a snap count last Thursday, and it proved to be true. He played on just 34% of the snaps, seeing 45% of the team rush attempts and running a route on 29% of dropbacks.
The matchup is mouthwatering, but if we don’t get reports that Jones is close to 100%, it’s tough to pay his price tag.
Jordan Love has been a fantasy producer in his short time as Green Bay’s starting quarterback. He’s averaged 22.1 DraftKings points per game, topping 20 points in three of four games.
The most encouraging aspect has been Love’s ground game usage. He had 39 yards and a touchdown two weeks ago against New Orleans and found the end zone on the ground last week as well.
Green Bay’s offensive line is in much better shape than it was last week, so Love shouldn’t have to run for his life early and often. Love has struggled under pressure, but Vegas is only getting pressure on 33.8% of dropbacks, which is 20th in the league.
Love is a strong play tonight in all formats.
Jimmy Garoppolo returns from his concussion for this matchup against Green Bay. He had a lackluster Weeks 1 and 2, before going for 23.66 DraftKings points in Week 3 against Pittsburgh.
Similar to Love, Garoppolo also struggles heavily under pressure. When clean, he averages 8.3 yards per attempt. That drops all the way to 4.4 when under pressure, with no touchdowns and four interceptions on the year.
Green Bay ranks second in the NFL in pressure rate. If Green Bay is able to get home, it could be a long night for Garoppolo.
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NFL DFS Midrange Picks
Romeo Doubs headlines the midrange section, with 25 targets in the past two games. He hauled in nine of thirteen targets last week, and has shown a strong connection with Love.
It’ll be important to monitor ownership because if he’ll see inflated ownership from last week’s performance, I’ll side with teammate Christian Watson. I’ve been beating the Christian Watson drum for a while now, and I’m doing it again tonight. He was on a snap count last week but now doesn’t carry any injury designation after practicing in a limited fashion all week.
He ran a route on 48% of dropbacks last week, and he may not be up to 100%, but somewhere around 75% is a floor expectation, in my opinion.
Vegas has been getting toasted on the outside, where Watson and Doubs run their routes. They’ve allowed the fifth-most yards per target to perimeter receivers. Both profile strongly, but I’ll take the upside of Watson.
Jakobi Meyers will likely see more ownership in the same price range, and it’s well warranted. He’s accounted for 24.1% of team targets and has had a strong connection with Garoppolo. With Jimmy G under center, Meyers has 7+ catches and 80+ yards in both games.
Meyers is an extremely strong play and probably the best of these midrange receivers. With my Packers fandom bias, I’d love to say Watson or Doubs is a better play, but it’s a tough sell.
The return of Watson didn’t have too much of an impact on Jayden Reed. He ran a route on 69% of the dropbacks, seeing five targets and 27% of the team air yards.
Reed is the team’s slot man, but Las Vegas has been pretty solid against slot receivers. They’ve allowed just 5.1 yards per target to interior receivers.
It’ll be interesting to see what Vegas’ course of action is. They game planned to take away George Pickens in Week 3, which was modestly successful as Pickens had four catches for 75 yards on six targets. We saw Calvin Austin III and Pat Freiermuth benefit as both found the end zone, and Austin got loose on a 72-yard touchdown.
They did whatever they could to stop Keenan Allen last week, and he had just 32 yards and a touchdown on five targets. Matt Lafleur is a great play designer who will scheme the ball into his playmaker’s hands, and it doesn’t seem like there’s a prime candidate for Las Vegas to scheme against, honestly.
Next up is Luke Musgrave, who had one catch last week prior to leaving with a concussion. He doesn’t carry an injury designation, so he should be 100% for this matchup.
Las Vegas is allowing just 5.7 yards per target to opposing tight ends but a 7.2% touchdown rate. Musgrave is a nice value option on this slate, as he has big play upside.
AJ Dillon rounds out this midrange section, and it’s been a tough year for him. He saw just five carries last week in a largely negative game script. With Jones returning to closer to a full role and Dillon being largely ineffective, it’s a tough sell. However, he is very cheap and likely keeps the goal-line role. He’s an intriguing value option.
Jones is still questionable, for what it’s worth. If Jones were reported as limited or was fully out, Dillon would become a near-lock at this price.
NFL DFS Value & Punt Picks
- Defenses & Kickers: These options are always in play in the single-game format, but make sure to correlate the rest of your lineup around them. Anders and Daniel Carlson are brothers, in case that helps your decision-making tonight. I prefer Daniel (LV) to Anders (GB), as Matt Lafleur is far more aggressive on fourth downs than Josh McDaniels.
- Hunter Renfrow ($2,200 on DraftKings, $8,000 on FanDuel): Hunter Renfrow’s role is getting seemingly smaller and smaller, with just seven targets in the first four weeks. He’ll run a route on 50% of the dropbacks, in case that’s something you’re interested in.
- Dontayvion Wicks ($200 on DraftKings, $7,000 on FanDuel): Wicks was far more expensive last week and virtually unplayable. He’s now the minimum price and could run a route on 20-25% of the dropbacks.