Week 10 finishes in Buffalo with a matchup between the Bills and Broncos at 8:15 p.m. ET. The Bills are listed as 7.5-point home favorites, while the total sits at 47.5 points.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate DFS projections:
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NFL DFS Stud Picks
Per usual on Bills showdown slates, Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs headline the stud section. Buffalo lost a tough game against Cincinnati last week, but Josh Allen still had a good fantasy day. Allen threw a touchdown through the air while running for 44 yards and another score en route to 25.72 DraftKings points.
Diggs had a fine game, catching six of seven targets for 86 yards and a touchdown. These two are clearly the top two options on the slate. Denver’s defense is much improved from the historically bad monstrosity it was earlier in the season, but they’re still not a great unit by any means.
Denver is allowing the highest catch rate and fifth-most yards per target to opposing receivers. There’s a chance that Diggs sees shadow coverage from Pat Surtain, which would diminish his outlook a little. However, he’s still one of the top options on the slate.
After that, it gets a little dicey, with most of the Bills’ players priced way too high. James Cook costs $10,000 coming off of a game where he had just six carries and four targets. The game script was negative from the start, so it’s understandable, but Cook is never really seeing 20+ touches. He’s usually good for a dozen or so carries and a handful of targets, and he needs to be efficient with them to pay off.
Denver has been stout against opposing backs as of late, and Cook’s price is too high. He’s an interesting option to be unique, but I’m not too interested personally.
Russell Wilson and the Broncos are coming off back-to-back wins prior to the bye, and now get a matchup with a Buffalo defense that has been trending in the wrong direction. Over the first four weeks of the season, Buffalo ranked 4th in EPA per play and 3rd in dropback EPA. Since then, they have ranked 31st in EPA per play and 30th in dropback EPA.
Even Mac Jones and Baker Mayfield have put up solid performances against this Buffalo defense as of late. This spread is over a touchdown, but I’m expecting Denver to keep this one close and move the ball fairly easily. Wilson looks like a great option tonight.
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NFL DFS Midrange Picks
The midrange is pretty loaded tonight, starting with Dalton Kincaid against the defense that has allowed the most DraftKings points to opposing tight ends on the year.
Kincaid’s role has grown with Knox off the field, seeing a 21% target rate per route run and 23% team target share. Denver’s defense is much improved as I noted, but they’re still allowing tight ends to destroy them. Kincaid is a strong option.
The Gabe Davis rollercoaster kept chugging along last week, following up his 23.7-point performance with a goose egg against Cincinnati. Denver has allowed the fifth-highest touchdown rate to opposing perimeter receivers, and he’ll see the softer matchup with Surtain likely shadowing Diggs. He’s an intriguing tournament option.
Next is a trio of Broncos, with my favorite being Javonte Williams against this struggling Buffalo defense. Williams saw 30 touches in the last game against the Chiefs, totaling 98 scrimmage yards and a touchdown. It’s usually risky to target road underdog running backs, but I’m expecting this game to be close. I like Williams a lot tonight.
If you run 150 lineups in the new SimLabs tool on FantasyLabs, you’ll get heavy exposure to Williams (depending on your settings).
Courtland Sutton and Jerry Jeudy come next, with both of them finding the end zone last week, and Sutton reaching pay dirt in five of his last six games. Buffalo has struggled against slot receivers, ranking in the bottom third of the league in receptions per game and yards per target allowed.
I prefer Jeudy to Sutton, as I think he’s the better player and likely due for some positive touchdown regression, with only one on the year.
Khalil Shakir has maintained his stranglehold over the WR3 position, running a route on 72% and 75% of dropbacks the past two weeks. He’s seen four, six, and four targets over the past three weeks and is a solid Points/Salary play at his price.
Marvin Mims Jr. is a downfield threat with big play upside but a nonexistent floor. He did play his highest snap share of the season prior to the bye, appearing on 40% of offensive snaps. He’s intriguing in tournaments.
NFL DFS Value & Punt Picks
- Defenses & Kickers: These options are always in play in the single-game format, but make sure to correlate the rest of your lineup around them.
- Latavius Murray ($1,800 on DraftKings, $7,500 on FanDuel): We likely won’t see Leonard Fournette activated, but if we do, that removes Latavius Murray from my radar. Murray is taking a lot of high-leverage work from Cook, like short down and distance, long down and distance, and 2-minute work. He isn’t seeing a ton of touches, but he is cheap.
- Samaje Perine ($1,400 on DraftKings, $7,000 on FanDuel): Perine is still taking long down and distance and 2-minute work away from Javonte Williams. He’s seen at least three targets in six of eight games on the year, averaging 3.25 per contest. He doesn’t need much to pay off his tag.
- Adam Trautman ($200 on DraftKings, $6,500 on FanDuel): With Greg Dulcich still on IR, Trautman is the minimum price while running a route on 70% of the dropbacks with Dulcich out. He’s an easy click in all formats.