With the Wild Card round in the books, we’re on to what is widely considered to be the best weekend of the NFL season. It features the final four teams in each conference, setting up some fantastic matchups. That includes Saturday’s nightcap between the Lions and Commanders. The Lions are listed as 9.5-point favorites, while the total sits at a massive 55.5 points.
Let’s dive into all of the DFS options for Commanders-Lions.
You can check out our in-depth SimLabs guide here.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate DFS projections:

NFL DFS Stud Picks
Jayden Daniels has defied rookie expectations all season. Rookies typically struggle out of the gates, but Daniels cruised to a QB5 finish in terms of fantasy points per game. If not for some injury issues during the middle of the year, that finish could’ve been even higher. He closed the season on an absolute heater, posting a positive Plus/Minus in his final five full regular season contests.
Rookie quarterbacks also aren’t supposed to win in the playoffs. Three quarterbacks made their first postseason start this year, and Daniels is the only one who covered the spread. Not only that, he won the game outright, setting up a matchup vs. the Lions in the divisional round.
When Daniels has been at his best this season, he checks all the boxes for fantasy purposes. He’s an elite athlete, averaging 52.4 rushing yards per game on 6.0 yards per carry, and he’s a highly efficient passer. He completed just under 70% of his passes this season to go along with 25 touchdowns and just nine interceptions.
Daniels has the potential to be even more dangerous in the playoffs. He carried the ball 13 times against the Buccaneers, which was his third-highest output of the season. He didn’t have a ton of success with those looks, but it bodes well for his prospects moving forward. Daniels has had more than 10 carries in six games, and last week vs. the Bucs was easily his least productive. In the other five contests, he averaged 80.4 rushing yards per game with three total touchdowns.
Daniels also stands out from a matchup standpoint. The Lions had one of the best defenses in football to start the year, but they were decimated by injuries over the second half. They ultimately allowed at least 31 points in three of their final five regular-season outings, and they allowed some massive fantasy performances along the way. Overall, Daniels has an Opponent Plus/Minus of +7.0 on this slate, which is the top mark by a significant margin.
Ultimately, Daniels leads our NFL Models in nearly every projection across the board, making him a clear top option.
How the Lions choose to split the backfield touches will be one of the most interesting things to watch on Saturday night. Jahmyr Gibbs has thrived recently as the team’s lead back, but David Montgomery will rejoin him in the rotation vs. the Commanders. When both have been healthy this season, they’ve split the workload basically right down the middle. Gibbs is the more explosive player and gets more opportunities on passing downs, while Montgomery has a slight edge in short-yardage situations. Ultimately, both players saw enough opportunities in a run-heavy offense to amass big fantasy value.
Has Gibbs done enough without Montgomery in recent weeks to cement a larger role moving forward? It’s possible, but it’s hard to imagine a scenario where Montgomery goes away completely. The team inked Montgomery to a two-year extension during the season, and he appears to be a big part of their culture. Maybe he doesn’t see quite as many snaps as he did pre-injury, but he’s going to cut into Gibbs’ workload.
That makes it tough to pay a premium for him in this spot. His salary has come down slightly after spiking to $11,600 with Montgomery sidelined, but he’s still up above $10,000. That’s more expensive than what he’s been priced at for most of the season.
However, the matchup does stand out as appealing. Washington has struggled against the run this season, ranking merely 22nd in rush defense EPA. The Lions are also massive favorites, which tends to bode well for running backs. Gibbs specifically has posted an average Plus/Minus of +7.83 when favored by at least a touchdown (per the Trends tool).
That’s more than enough to keep him on the radar vs. the Commanders. He has the highest ceiling projection among the non-QBs on this slate.
Amon-Ra St. Brown rounds out the stud section, and he’s had an interesting season. When the Lions have taken to the air, he’s been the team’s clear No. 1 option. He’s racked up a 27% target share, which is tied for the ninth-best mark among all NFL receivers.
However, the Lions simply haven’t had to throw the ball quite as much this season. Jared Goff racked up 66 fewer attempts than he did last year despite finishing the year on a high note. That has resulted in less volume overall for St. Brown. He had 23 fewer targets than he did last season despite playing an extra game. He averaged 20 fewer receiving yards per game as well.
The good news is that St. Brown’s efficiency was up, especially as a touchdown scorer. He had a career-best 12 scores this season, and he had at least one touchdown in 11 of his final 15 games.
If the Lions have to throw the ball more than expected this week, St. Brown brings a big ceiling to the table. If not, his upside is a bit capped. He’s a logical stacking partner with Goff – the two players have a massive +0.68 correlation – but he’s the least appealing of the stud targets as a standalone option.
NFL DFS Midrange Picks
Speaking of Goff, he headlines the midrange tier. Goff turned in the most efficient season of his career, posting career highs in completion percentage, touchdown rate, and adjusted yards per attempt. He also ended the year with a flurry of big performances, posting a positive Plus/Minus in six of his final eight games. That included two games of at least 37.58 DraftKings points, both of which came in Detroit.
Goff has historically been a player with pretty drastic home/road splits. He’s historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +1.92 at home as a member of the Lions, and that figure increased slightly in 2024-25. Goff has specifically done his best work as a home favorite with Detroit, posting a Plus/Minus of +2.91 in that split.
He’s coming off a poor showing in his last outing, finishing with just 231 yards, one touchdown, and two interceptions vs. the Vikings, but Minnesota has a tough defense. Things should be a bit easier this week vs. the Commanders. Goff ultimately trails only Daniels in both ceiling projection and projected Plus/Minus, so he’s another potential building block on this slate.
Terry McLaurin has been one of the most consistent receivers in fantasy this season. He’s finished as a top-20 PPR receiver in 14 of his past 16 games, and he’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in 12 of those outings. He only has two real clunkers over that time frame, and one of them was against the Eagles’ elite secondary.
McLaurin hasn’t been a true target hog for the Commanders, but he makes up for it with his big-play ability. He has a 41% air yards share and has seen 37% of their end zone targets, so he’s a threat to rack up fantasy points in multiple ways. He’s also had at least 10 targets in back-to-back games, so his target share has increased as the games have gotten more important. That gives him plenty of upside against a banged-up Lions’ secondary.
The only downside with McLaurin is that he doesn’t correlate particularly well with his quarterback. Daniels gets most of his fantasy value with his legs, so he has just a +0.02 correlation with his top receiver. That means playing one without the other could be an interesting way to diversify your lineups.
Jameson Williams has taken a big step forward in his third professional season. He’s posted career-highs in every category across the board, including the first 1,000-yard campaign of his career.
Williams’ role has also grown as the year has progressed. He’s been the team’s clear big-play threat, but his target share has also gotten more consistent down the stretch. He has just a 19% target share for the year, but he’s been at 20% or higher in six of his past seven outings. Williams has upside across the industry, but he’s particularly appealing at just $11,000 on FanDuel. It results in an 88% Bargain Rating, which ranks second on the slate.
The only player with a higher Bargain Rating on FanDuel? That would be Montgomery, who is priced at the absolute minimum at $5,000. He’s basically a free square on that site, so you have no choice but to lock him into your lineups. His projected Plus/Minus is so much higher than every other player in that price range, so you’re giving up value by not having him in your lineups.
Montgomery’s salary is far more accurate on DraftKings, but he still has some appeal there. He’s priced at $7,600, which is -$1,400 cheaper than he was in his final regular season contest. He posted a positive Plus/Minus in his final four full games before getting injured, so he’s proven the ability to pay off a higher price tag for most of the year. Montgomery also benefits from the same matchup and situation as Gibbs, and if the Lions are able to establish a lead, it could be him who is asked to kill the clock at the end of the game.
The Commanders also employ a committee backfield, and Brian Robinson and Austin Ekeler split the snaps nearly right down the middle last week. Robinson was on the field for 51% of the team’s offensive plays, while Ekeler was at 46%.
On paper, Robinson is the team’s between-the-tackles grinder, while Ekeler is the pass-catching specialist. However, Robinson has had an increased role as a pass-catcher in recent weeks. Part of that was due to Ekeler being out with an injury, but he still managed five targets with Ekeler in the lineup last week. He had a 16% target share vs. the Buccaneers, while Ekeler lagged slightly behind at 13%.
Still, Ekeler figures to be the primary pass-catcher moving forward, and that role should have more value than usual in a game where the Commanders are expected to play from behind. He stands out as the clear Commanders’ back to target in our NFL Models.
Sam LaPorta got off to a brutal start this season, especially after taking the league by storm as a rookie. However, he’s completely turned things around over the second half of the season. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in six straight games, and he’s had at least seven targets in five straight. Overall, he’s seen a healthy 20% target share from Week 8 on, and he’s had 35% of the team’s end zone targets over that time frame. That makes him a clear value at just $5,600.
Zach Ertz hasn’t been quite as consistent as LaPorta of late, but he still has some upside. He’s gone for double-digit DraftKings points in five of his past eight games, including at least 15.4 in two of his past three. He had a poor showing last week vs. the Buccaneers, which has caused his salary to dip by -$1,000 for this week’s matchup vs. the Lions. He has some buy-low appeal, although the Lions have been very tough against opposing tight ends this season.
NFL DFS Value & Punt Picks
- Defenses & Kickers – These options are always in play for the single-game format. Zane Gonzalez stands out as the most undervalued in Sim Labs, with his projected ownership checking in roughly 2% lower than his optimal lineup rate.
- Olamide Zaccheaus ($4,400 DraftKings, $9,500 FanDuel) – Zaccheaus took a step back production-wise last week, but he remains the Commanders’ No. 2 receiver from an opportunities standpoint. He ran a route on 63% of the team’s dropbacks, and while that’s not an elite mark, it did rank second among the team’s receivers.
- Dyami Brown ($4,000 DraftKings, $8,000 FanDuel) – Brown was more productive than Zaccheaus last week, but he had just a 58% route participation. That makes him a potential sell-high target.
- Tim Patrick ($3,600 DraftKings, $8,000 FanDuel) – Patrick is the Lions’ No. 3 receiver, and he has a 60% route participation for the year. However, his target share sits at just 9%, and it’s been at 7% or lower in three straight games. It’s possible that more targets are being funneled to guys like St. Brown, LaPorta, and Williams as the games become more important, but Patrick still has some potential at $3,600.
- Jamison Crowder ($2,000 DraftKings, $7,500 FanDuel) – Crowder is currently questionable, and he’s not particularly appealing even if he’s able to suit up. However, his absence would solidify Zaccheaus and Brown as appealing value flyers.