NFL DFS Lineup Optimizer Rules and My Favorite Angle for Week 18’s Main Slate

Our Lineup Optimizer is an incredibly powerful tool inside our Player Models, particularly when creating a large number of lineups. However, it’s just that — a tool. We still have to make decisions. Otherwise, everyone would have the same 150 lineups in each contest.

This is intended more as a teaching piece than a step-by-step guide. These rules are suggestions that can show you how to translate your read on these games into lineups.

Each week I’ll go over my favorite DFS angle for the given week and go over some of our Lineup Optimizer settings that are worth considering.

Now, let’s get to it!

My Favorite Week 18 NFL DFS Angles

It’s Week 18 so let’s get weird! It looks like a number of low to mid-tier receivers are going to be popular this week, with Drake London, Rashid Shaheed, Courtland Sutton, and Garrett Wilson soaking up a bunch of ownership. That’s great because it leaves a super fun play completely unowned and under the radar.

The Chargers are very likely to enter their game with no motivation. If the Bengals beat the Ravens as expected, then the Chargers game is meaningless. Chargers head coach Brandon Staley has addressed it and made it pretty clear that starters will sit if they have nothing to play for.

Enter DeAndre Carter, who has had a pretty solid year for the Chargers this year, and now enters a potentially meaningless game with some big incentives. He needs two catches for 55 yards and two touchdowns to earn a cool $300,000. What better way to reward a guy who stepped up when Keenan Allen and Mike Williams missed time than by getting him paid? He would likely have career check-casher Chase Daniel at QB, who is competent enough to get him the ball and should understand the value of making sure your boys are taken care of.

At just $4,100, I’m happy to do some Week 18 narrative chasing on a guy who could legitimately come in less than 1% owned.

Lineup Optimizer Rules to Consider

Below are the rules to consider for Sunday. For more context on optimizer rules or the Showdown format in general, check out my NFL Showdown Primer.

General

Minimum salary cap: 99.6%. Leaving more than this causes you to lose significant win equity.

Flex positions: WR, RB

Player Correlations

Optimal tournament construction includes stacking your quarterback with at least one, but usually two, pass-catcher(s) from the same team and at least one pass-catcher from the opposing team.

A mobile quarterback with a big rushing game is more likely to only need one teammate paired. These settings can be accomplished through rules in the “Position” tab or through the Player Correlations tab for more control.

You typically want to avoid pairings like Justin Jefferson with Dalvin Cook in GPPs to ensure your ceiling isn’t capped. The Player Groups tab gives you more control over the process, but the Position tab can be used to completely group out running back paired with a wide receiver from the same team.

Keep an eye on Jefferson projected ownership leading up to kickoff. He needs 194 yards to break the single-season record. That is a big number for a team that doesn’t need to win this game and has big playoff aspirations. I’d be likely to lean away from JJ if he starts becoming more popular.

Custom

Winning GPP lineups typically use 2-3 players that are less than 10% owned. The Lineup Optimizer allows you to accomplish this quickly.