NFL DFS Lineup Optimizer Rules and My Favorite Angle for Week 11’s Main Slate

Our Lineup Optimizer is an incredibly powerful tool inside our Player Models, particularly when creating a large number of lineups. However, it’s just that — a tool. We still have to make decisions. Otherwise, everyone would have the same 150 lineups in each contest.

This is intended more as a teaching piece than a step-by-step guide. These rules are suggestions that can show you how to translate your read on these games into lineups.

Each week I’ll go over my favorite DFS angle for the given week and go over some of our Lineup Optimizer settings that are worth considering.

Now, let’s get to it!

My Favorite Week 11 NFL DFS Angle

I’m hoping to continue on last week’s success with more running back talk. David Montgomery is currently projected as the most popular running back play on the DraftKings’ main slate, and for the first time in a while, I am in agreement with the field. I think Montgomery is the best play on the slate; he gets an elite matchup, inherits a bigger role with Herbert out, and gets you off of Justin Fields, who feels primed to come back to earth a bit this week. Montgomery seems likely to see 18+ carries and 3+ targets against a defense that ranks 25th in rush defense DVOA. Sign me up, especially in cash games.

In terms of high-end spends, I am once again looking to get over the field on Jonathan Taylor, who looked fully healthy last week in coach Jeff Saturday’s debut as the Colts got back to their identity and ‘established it.’ The Eagles got gashed Monday night against the Commanders on the ground. In fact, they were so desperate to shore up their rush defense they signed two veteran defensive tackles with a combined age of 69 years. Sign me up for another week of 20 JT carries at home in the dome.

Finally, I’m down to take shots on Commanders running backs but obviously limited to one per lineup. They had so much success on the ground last week that it would be surprising to see them suddenly get away from that identity. It helps that they face a Houston team coming in nearly dead last in rushing defense at 31st in terms of DVOA. Both guys should come in well below 10% ownership.

Lineup Optimizer Rules to Consider

Below are the rules to consider for Sunday. For more context on optimizer rules or the Showdown format in general, check out my NFL Showdown Primer.

General

Minimum salary cap: 99.6%. Leaving more than this causes you to lose significant win equity.

Flex positions: WR, RB, TE (double TE viable with tight pricing this week)

Player Correlations

Optimal tournament construction includes stacking your quarterback with at least one, but usually two, pass-catcher(s) from the same team and at least one pass-catcher from the opposing team.

A mobile quarterback with a big rushing game is more likely to only need one teammate paired. These settings can be accomplished through rules in the “Position” tab or through the Player Correlations tab for more control.

Make it three weeks in a row where Justin Fields is the only quarterback I will be actively looking to single stack with as he continues to rely on massive rushing performances.

You want to avoid pairings like Davante Adams with Josh Jacobs in GPPs to assure your ceiling isn’t capped. The Player Groups tab gives you more control over the process, but the Position tab can be used to completely group out running back paired with a wide receiver from the same team.

At Most 1 of Justin Fields and David Montgomery

At most 1 of Josh Allen and Devin Singletary

At most 1 of Brian Robinson, Antonio Gibson, Terry McLaurin

Custom

Winning GPP lineups typically use 2-3 players that are less than 10% owned. The Lineup Optimizer allows you to accomplish this quickly.