Specifically, I will be focusing on players’ ownership projections and Leverage Scores within our FantasyLabs Models to identify these contrarian targets. Leverage Scores are a combination of a player’s projected ceiling and ownership. In other words, a high ceiling combined with a low ownership projection means a high leverage score.
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Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
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NFL DFS High-Leverage Stack
Dak Prescott ($6,700) + CeeDee Lamb ($8,500)
The Prescott to Lamb stack was a huge success as the featured stack in this article last week, and we need to go right back to the pairing this weekend, with the Cowboys hosting the lowly Giants. New York is the ninth worst-graded defense on PFF, and Dallas boasts the highest implied team total on the slate in this spot (28 points), via FantasyLabs’ Vegas page.
After a subpar start to the season, Prescott has been brilliant in his last three starts, leading all quarterbacks in yards per attempt since Week 6 (8.1) while throwing for eight touchdowns and only one pick during this time. Prescott is averaging 29.4 DraftKings PPG over his last three starts and has historically been a stud when playing at home and behind an implied team total of 28 points or more, supplying 26 DraftKings PPG (17 games) via the Trends Tool.
A huge reason for Prescott’s recent success has been his trust in Lamb. In their last three games, the wideout has led the Cowboys with a huge 34.3% target share, including four red zone targets and nine targets over 20 yards, which ranks second in the NFL during this span. Lamb is contributing 32.6 DraftKings PPG in his last three starts and should dominate this soft Giants’ defense this Sunday. In his last four meetings with the divisional rival, Lamb has exceeded 20 DraftKings points three times.
Only 5.7% of the field in DraftKings’ Fantasy Football Millionaire rostered both Prescott and Lamb last week – via FantasyLabs’ contest dashboard – and this number should be even lower this weekend, with Joe Burrow to Ja’Marr Chase undoubtedly expected to be the most popular stack for this slate.
As we saw last week, Prescott to Lamb is a stack that has slate-winning upside, and utilizing this pairing is a sharp way to gain leverage over the DFS players who are rostering the chalky Bengals.
NFL DFS Running Back Leverage Pick
Aaron Jones ($6,500)
After being limited with a hamstring injury for most of the season, Jones is back to full strength and was finally unleashed this past Sunday. In the win over the Rams, the back set new season highs in touches (26) and snap rate (57%), helping Jones score 18.9 DraftKings points. The 28-year-old handled 60.6% of the Packers’ running back carries, including a whopping six red zone rushes, which is the most rezone attempts Jones has seen in a game in over two years. When healthy, the veteran is without question one of the best backs in the NFL, and Jones is criminally for his upside at only $6,500.
For his career, Jones ranks fifth all-time among running backs in yards per carry (5.1), and this season, he has been very efficient when on the field, ranking ninth in DraftKings points per snap (0.45) and ninth in DraftKings points per touch (1.02) among running backs who have logged at least 20 carries.
The Packers are a three-point road underdog in Pittsburgh this weekend, but the Steelers have been susceptible to running backs this season, giving up the fifth most yards per rush (4.5). Jones is producing 18 DraftKings PPG for the last 10 times he has logged at least 50% of the snaps in a game and is a spectacular GPP play this weekend, with the BLITZ projections slating him to come with single-digit ownership on DraftKings.
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NFL DFS Wide Receiver Leverage Pick
Keenan Allen ($8,800)
With Chase soaking up most of the ownership in this price range, people are sleeping on Allen – the BLITZ projections are forecasting him for single-digit ownership on DraftKings – making him one of the best contrarian options on the slate. Allen ranks ninth in the NFL in target share this season (30.3%) and has seen encouraging downfield usage. The wideout leads the Chargers with 12 targets over 20 yards and owns a 9.7 aDOT this season, which is his highest average in the stat since 2019. From a fantasy perceptive, Allen ranks seventh in both DraftKings PPG (21.3) and DraftKings points per snap (0.34) among receivers.
After facing a stout Jets’ defense last week that ranks second in fewest yards per pass allowed (5.4), Allen is in a much better spot this Sunday vs. the Lions. Detroit’s defense got off to a solid start this season but has been on the decline as of late, surrendering the fourth most yards per pass over their last three games (7.4). T
his matchup carries the highest total on the slate (48.5 points), and Los Angeles is a three-point underdog for this tilt, which should result in a pass-heavy gameplan for their offense and bodes extremely well for Allen.
When competing as an underdog over the last two seasons, the receiver has been terrific with 24 DraftKings PPG, via the Trends Tool. According to the BLITZ projections, Allen brings the highest ceiling on the slate at his position.
NFL DFS Tight End Leverage Pick
Dalton Schultz ($4,900)
Schultz’s salary has hit a new season high, but he should still beat this price tag in this smash spot vs. the Bengals. While running a route on 73% of his team’s dropbacks, Schultz has seen a 19.3% target share this season, which ranks 10th among all tight ends. Rookie C.J. Stroud has especially looked Schultz’s way in scoring territory, with Schultz seeing 10 red zone targets thus far, which ranks fourth at his position. Schultz just erupted for a season-high 31 DraftKings points in last week’s win over the Bucs and has impressively scored at least 13 DraftKings points in 11 of his past 20 starts.
As for his matchup, Cincinnati has been the premier matchup for tight ends this season. On top of yielding the sixth most yards per pass (7.1), the Bengals are giving up the fourth most yards (531), seventh-most catches (51), and seventh-most touchdowns to tight ends (4). Furthermore, this game’s total ranks second on the slate (47 points), and the Texans should be forced to air it out as 6.5-point underdogs. Schultz’s impressive season should continue in this excellent environment, and he is expected to be less than 5% owned on DraftKings, according to the BLITZ projections.
Note: player and ownership projections may change leading up to lock. Be sure to check out the Player Models for any changes.