The Cincinnati Bengals host the Buffalo Bills in the the first Monday Night Football matchup of the Ohio sports betting era. Sign up with our BetMGM bonus code to get$1,000 in first-bet insurance on Bills vs. Bengals odds, and check out more top Ohio sportsbook offers before kickoff.
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Bills vs. Bengals Odds
- Bills -2.5 (-110)
- Bengals +2.5 (-110)
- Over/Under 50.5
- 8:15 pm ET, ESPN
Week 17 of the NFL season will conclude on Monday Night Football with a highly-anticipated matchup between the Buffalo Bills and Cincinnati Bengals – two teams fighting for a first round bye in the AFC playoffs.
Entering play, Buffalo is a half-game behind the Kansas City Chiefs for the top-seed, but holds the tie-breaker as a result of winning their head-to-head matchup in Week 6. Cincinnati trails both teams by one game in the loss column with two contests remaining in the regular season.
Oddsmakers are expecting a tightly-contested affair between these two contenders, currently pricing the Bills as 2.5-point road favorites on the spread.
Buffalo Bills Preview
Let’s look closer at the matchup to see where NFL bettors can find value at sportsbooks like BetMGM and FanDuel this evening.
Buffalo offense thriving
During Buffalo’s six game winning streak, their offense ranks 5th in EPA overall, 8th in dropback EPA, and 4th in rush EPA, with the newfound stability on the ground being a welcome addition for a team that had often been chided for being too one-dimensional. In those six games, the Bills have posted at least 102 rushing yards every week. Facing a Cincinnati defense that ranks 6th in rush EPA since the return of D.J. Reader will be a tough test, but the unpredictability of this Josh Allen-led group should find a way to put points on the board in this spot.
Defense without Miller
In four games since losing edge rusher Von Miller to injured reserve, the Bills defense has performed admirably – ranking 4th in EPA overall, 7th in dropback EPA, and 6th in rush EPA. In those four contests, the pass rush has generated no fewer than eight quarterback hurries in any individual game, and has totaled 10 sacks, including three consecutive games with multiple sacks.
Key injury news
The larger concern for Buffalo’s defense this evening is the status of safety Jordan Poyer. Per Pro Football Focus, Poyer ranks 12th out of 87 players at his position in coverage in 2022. Buffalo is already without one of their typical starting safeties, Micah Hyde, who has been on injured reserve since September. The absence of both Poyer and Hyde could create significant issues for this defense down-the-field.
Cincinnati Bengals Preview
Big night for Burrow?
Through 15 games this fall, Joe Burrow owns a 34-to-12 touchdown-to-interception ratio, ranks 8th among qualified signal callers in QBR, and 7th in EPA per play. If safety Jordan Poyer is unable to take the field this evening, Burrow could be in for another big day against a depleted Buffalo secondary unit. On the season, Burrow has attempted the 5th-most pass attempts 20-plus yards down-the-field, and ranks 2nd among all quarterbacks in passing grade on such throws, per Pro Football Focus.
Secondary unit struggling
From Week 1 to Week 7, games in which cornerback Chidobe Awuzie played at least 44 snaps, Cincinnati’s defense ranked 6th in EPA overall and 6th in dropback EPA. From Week 8 to Week 16, without Awuzie on the field, this unit regressed to 20th in EPA overall and 23rd in Dropback EPA. Facing one of the league’s most potent offensive attacks, the secondary unit is an area of vulnerability for the Bengals on Monday Night Football.
Key injury news
In addition to being without Awuzie, the Bengals have listed defensive lineman Sam Hubbard as questionable for this evening. Per Pro Football Focus, Hubbard ranks 12th out of 116 players at his position in 2022 as a run defender. In three games this season in which Hubbard has played fewer than 39 snaps, the Bengals have allowed 325 rushing yards to the Cleveland Browns, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and New England Patriots. However, it is worth noting that 25 of the 32 players that Cincinnati has listed as questionable this season have ended up suiting-up on gameday, per Jay Morrison.
Bills vs. Bengals Pick & Prediction
Bettors should not make significant wagers on this contest before learning the status of safety Jordan Poyer and defensive lineman Sam Hubbard. Both players are capable of dramatically altering the effectiveness of their respective defenses if they are on the field, and consequently – creating exposable vulnerabilities if they are on the sidelines. If adamant about locking-in a wager before final inactive reports are posted, it makes sense to target Ja’Marr Chase. Chase is capable of cashing the over on his receptions even if Poyer plays, but Poyer’s absence would only increase the likelihood of him having a big night.
- PICK: Ja’Marr Chase o6.5 receptions
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