Our Lineup Optimizer is an incredibly powerful tool inside our Player Models, particularly when creating a large number of lineups. However, it’s just that — a tool. We still have to make decisions. Otherwise, everyone would have the same 150 DFS lineups in each contest.
This is intended more as a teaching piece than a step-by-step guide. These rules are suggestions that can show you how to translate your read on this game into lineups.
Additionally, this piece focuses on DraftKings Showdown contests, but similar strategies are useful on FanDuel.
For my general Showdown strategy, you can read my Showdown primer.
My Favorite NFL DFS Angle in Buccaneers vs. Bills Showdown
Despite the wide spread, I’m actually a bit bullish on the Bucs’ chance to be competitive tonight. Baker Mayfield has been a middle-of-the-pack starter, ranking 16th in PFF grading, and has a full complement of weapons against a banged-up Bills defense that just brought Mac Jones back to life.
In lineups that tell a story of the Bucs keeping this game close, I’m going to prioritize one of Dalton Kincaid and the Bills’ No. 3-4 receivers. The loss of both Dawson Knox and Quentin Morris bumps everyone up to a more prominent role, making them all underpriced. Khalil Shakir is the most expensive of the Bills’ slot receivers but did double up Harty and Sherfield in routes against the Patriots, making him the preferred option for me, even at cost.
I know I’m writing up the entire Bills offense at this point, but I did want to point out that Bucs’ monster run-stuff Vita Vea seems on the doubtful side of questionable after not practicing all week. This would be a huge upgrade to James Cook and the Bills rush offense.
Lineup Optimizer Rules to Consider
- Max 3 players vs. opposing Defense
- Minimum salary cap 90%
- Pair Captain Josh Allen with at least two Bills pass-catchers.
- Pair Captain Baker Mayfield with at least two Bucs pass-catchers.
- Pair Captain pass-catchers with at most one other pass-catcher from the same team.
- Most lineups should also pair Captain pass-catchers with their QB.
- Max two kickers and defenses
- Max 1 Khalil Shakir, Deonte Harty, Trent Sherfield
- Max 1 Trey Palmer, Deven Thompkins
- Max 1 of Bucs RB
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Captain Pool (from highest to lowest priority)
- Josh Allen
- Stefon Diggs
- Mike Evans
- James Cook (assuming Vea is out)
- Gabe Davis
Large-Field GPP Fliers
- Dalton Kincaid
- Chris Godwin
- Baker Mayfield
- Khalil Shakir
- Trey Palmer
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections: