The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Wednesday features a seven-game slate starting at 7:30 p.m. ET.
Point Guard
Stud
Steph Curry has been mediocre by his standards recently, posting an average Plus/Minus of just +0.20 over his past 10 games on DraftKings. That said, he’s actually increased his fantasy production over the past month, averaging 1.43 DraftKings points per minute, but his overall fantasy output has been dragged down by reduced minutes in a number of blowouts.
His salary has also decreased by $900 over the past month, which could make this the perfect time to buy low on him. He has an excellent matchup against the Spurs, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.70. That’s the top mark at the position, and the Warriors’ implied team total of 122.5 ranks first on the slate as well.
Value
On the other side of the same matchup, the Spurs are basically sending out their B-team on the front leg of a back-to-back. They’ll be without DeMar DeRozan, LaMarcus Aldrdige and Derrick White, which opens the door for some of their role players to take on a larger role.
One of those players is Patty Mills. He’s seen a usage bump of +5.8% with all three players off the court this season, resulting in an average of 1.0 DraftKings points per minute. He’s currently projected for 26.5 minutes in our NBA Models, and that kind of playing time would make him a strong value across the industry.
Fast Break
The Bulls are in one of the best spots of the day against the Pelicans, who rank sixth in pace and are tied for 26th in defensive efficiency this season. Kris Dunn is a strong value on FanDuel, where his $6,600 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 77%.
The Jazz will be an interesting team to monitor prior to lineup lock. It seems like they’re trying to work out a trade for Grizzlies’ PG Mike Conley, and if they’re successful, Ricky Rubio might not be available against the Suns. If Rubio is active, however, it’s hard not to like him at $6,300 on FanDuel.
Credit: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Ricky Rubio
Rubio has averaged 1.09 FanDuel points per minute over the past month, and his matchup against the Suns results in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.61.
Shooting Guard
Stud
Chris Paul returned to the Rockets’ lineup in their last game but did little to diminish the fantasy stock of James Harden. Harden tallied 72.0 DraftKings points in that contest and has scored at least 71.75 DraftKings points in four of his past five games. Three of those games have come with Paul in the lineup, so it’s possible that Paul’s presence won’t have as big of an impact on Harden as expected.
That said, there are some reasons for pessimism if you dig a little deeper. He’s posted a usage rate of 38.4% or less in each of his past three games, which is a far cry from what he averaged with Paul out of the lineup. He was still able to score 44 points in his last game, but he shot an unusually high 57.7% from the field. Harden has shot just 44.2% this season, so he could be due for some regression. He’s still an absolute monster for DFS purposes, but he seems overpriced at $14,000 on FanDuel.
Value
Marco Belinelli is another candidate to see an increased workload for the Spurs and has averaged a strong Plus/Minus of +6.46 over his past 10 games on DraftKings. He’s increased his usage rate by +4.7% with DeRozan, Aldridge and White off the court this season, resulting in an average of 0.99 DraftKings points per minute.
Fast Break
Buddy Hield is one of the best pure values at the position on FanDuel. He’s priced at $6,700, giving him a Bargain Rating of 85%, and he’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in each of his past six games. His 12 Pro Trends are also tied for the most at the position.
Zach LaVine seems like the member of the Bulls’ backcourt that you want to target on DraftKings. He owns a Bargain Rating of 86% and has averaged 1.03 DraftKings points per minute over the past month.
Small Forward
Stud
Giannis Antetokounmpo is coming off 67.75 DraftKings points and has been a really reliable source of value recently. He’s posted a perfect 100% Consistency Rating over the past month despite the fact that he doesn’t play nearly as many minutes as most of the other superstars in the NBA. He’s been able to make up for it by averaging a stout 1.77 DraftKings points per minute over that time frame.
Credit: Raj Mehta-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Giannis Antetokounmpo
Giannis is in a wonderful spot against the Wizards, who have played at the eighth-fastest pace this season, and Milwaukee’s resulting implied team total of 120.75 ranks second. Giannis’ Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.04 also ranks first among SFs on DraftKings. He offers a similar ceiling to Harden at a reduced cost, which makes him the preferred target for guaranteed prize pools (GPPs).
Value
Sticking with the theme of Spurs’ value, Rudy Gay could provide stud-like production at a fraction of the cost against the Warriors. He’s seen a ridiculous usage bump of +10.2% with DeRozan, Aldridge and White off the court this season, resulting in an average of 1.51 FanDuel points per minute. That’s over a 101 minutes of playing time this season, so it’s not exactly a minuscule sample size either. His 12 Pro Trends are tied for the most at SF position on FanDuel, where his $6,000 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 82%.
Fast Break
Will Barton is one of the best pure values at the position on FanDuel given his Bargain Rating of 95%. Jamal Murray is questionable to make his return to the lineup, but Barton would still benefit from the absence of Gary Harris even if Murray is able to suit up.
Otto Porter has posted a positive Plus/Minus in each of his past two games but remains affordable at $5,800 on DraftKings. His salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 95%, and he’s coming off greater than 38 minutes in his most recent contest.
Power Forward
Stud
Kenneth Faried continues to provide value minutes for both the Rockets and fantasy owners. He’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +8.47 over his past 10 games on DraftKings, despite the fact that his salary has risen considerably over that time frame. He’s averaged 1.18 DraftKings points per minute over the past month and has played at least 30.5 minutes in five of his past six games.
Faried is in a wonderful spot against the Kings, who have played at the second-fastest pace in the league this season. It results in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.37 on DraftKings, where his $7,000 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 93%.
Value
Marvin Bagley exploded for 55.0 DraftKings points in his most recent contest, and he’s been an excellent source of fantasy production for most of the past two weeks. He’s been an excellent per-minute producer this season and has seen a nice spike in playing time recently, logging at least 28 minutes in five of his past six games.
He’s played at least 30.5 minutes in each of his past two games, and that much playing time gives him a high floor and ceiling at $5,800 on DraftKings.
Fast Break
The Suns are going to be shorthanded against the Jazz, with Devin Booker, T.J. Warren and De’Anthony Melton all ruled out. That should give Josh Jackson a nice boost in value. He’s seen a usage bump of +4.7% with all three players off the court this season, resulting in an average of 0.93 DraftKings points per minute.
Julius Randle is a game-time decision against the Bulls, but he’s in potential smash spot if he’s able to suit up. The Bulls have been killed by opposing big men this season, and Randle would have the opportunity to post a huge usage rate for the shorthanded Pelicans. That said, it’s possible he could have his minutes limited even if he’s able to play, which makes him best suited for GPPs.
Center
Stud
Nikola Jokic has struggled over his past two games but is in a prime bounce back spot against the Nets, who have been crushed by opposing centers all season, giving Jokic an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.25 on FanDuel.
Credit: Chuck Cook-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Nikola Jokic
He leads the position with 12 Pro Trends, and his $10,800 salary also makes him the best pure value at the position among high-priced options.
Value
Jakob Poeltl is another member of the Spurs who could see a boost in playing time. He’s averaged a very respectable 0.96 DraftKings points per minute this season and is currently projected for 25.5 minutes in our NBA Models. That would make him one of the best values of the day at $3,200 on DraftKings and allows you to jam multiple studs into your lineup.
Fast Break
DeAndre Ayton should be one of the biggest beneficiaries for the shorthanded Suns.
He’s seen a large usage rate differential with the three injured Suns off the court this season, resulting in an average of 1.31 DraftKings points per minute. He has a difficult matchup against Rudy Gobert and the Jazz, but he’s very reasonably priced at $6,500 on DraftKings. His 11 Pro Trends trail on Jokic at the position.
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NBA news feed.
Pictured: Spurs F Rudy Gay
Photo Credit: Soobum Im-USA Today Sports
