The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Sunday features a six-game main slate starting at 6 p.m. ET.
Point Guard
Stud
Trae Young is coming off a triple-double in his last game and has posted an average Plus/Minus of +5.77 over his past 10 games on FanDuel. He’s taken some major steps forward with his game since the beginning of February, averaging 23.9 points per game while shooting 42.0% from 3-point range.
Credit: Jason Getz-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Atlanta Hawks guard Trae Young (11).
He’s in an excellent spot today vs. the New Orleans Pelicans, who rank just 24th in defensive efficiency this season. The Hawks’ implied team total of 119.5 ranks second on the slate, and Young’s Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.21 is one of the top marks at the position. He’s a nice value at $8,300 on FanDuel given his Bargain Rating of 77%.
Value
On the other side of the same matchup, it’s hard not to like Elfrid Payton. The Pelicans have the potential to be extremely shorthanded today, with Jrue Holiday already ruled out and Anthony Davis currently questionable.
Payton has averaged 0.99 DraftKings points per minute over the past month and should see a healthy amount of playing time today. The Hawks also represent an elite matchup, giving Payton an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.76. He’s one of the best values at the position on DraftKings, where his $5,800 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 92%.
Fast Break
Frank Jackson actually led the Pelicans in minutes in their last game and responded with 27.0 DraftKings points. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in six of his past seven games and should benefit from the same elite matchup as Payton.
Jalen Brunson has averaged a Plus/Minus of +7.84 over his past 10 games on DraftKings, yet his salary has actually decreased by -$400 over that time frame. He’s coming off 33.5 DraftKings points in his last game and has played at least 30.5 minutes in each of his past two. He’s a strong option at $4,100 on DraftKings.
Shooting Guard
Stud
The Rockets are rolling right now, winning each of their past six games, and they’ve managed to do that despite some lackluster performances by James Harden. He’s maintained an elite usage rate over that time frame — he’s posted a usage rate of at least 39.9% in all six of those games — but he’s posted a negative Plus/Minus in four of those contests.
His production has also dropped off to 1.50 FanDuel points per minute over the past month, which is a significant increase from his average with Chris Paul out of the lineup.
He’s in an average spot today vs. the Mavericks, who are a middle of the road team in terms of defensive efficiency and pace. Harden will always be in play for guaranteed prize pools (GPPs) given his elite ceiling, but there are better options for cash games.
Value
Damyean Dotson has been a nice value for the Knicks recently, posting an average Plus/Minus of +6.00 over his past 10 games on FanDuel. He’s seen a nice spike in playing time over that time frame, and he’s increased his production to 0.84 FanDuel points per minute over the past month. He has a nice matchup vs. the Timberwolves, who rank just 22nd in defensive efficiency, and his $4,800 salary on FanDuel comes with a Bargain Rating of 77%.
Fast Break
Luka Doncic has shooting guard eligibility on FanDuel and point guard/small forward eligibility on DraftKings, but he’s a strong option regardless of where you choose to play him. He leads all players with 15 Pro Trends on DraftKings and 14 Pro Trends on FanDuel and has displayed an elite ceiling since the Mavericks traded away Dennis Smith Jr. and DeAndre Jordan. He’s projected for just 13-16% ownership across the industry, which increases his appeal for GPPs.
Ian Clark played 26.7 minutes off the bench in the Pelicans last game, and his 15 shot attempts were tied for the second-most on the team. He’s averaged 0.85 FanDuel points per minute over the past month, making him an appealing punt play at the absolute minimum on FanDuel.
Small Forward
Stud
Giannis Antetokounmpo is an absolute monster on a per-minute basis, but that hasn’t translated into strong fantasy results recently. He’s posted a negative Plus/Minus in five of his past six games on DraftKings in large part because he just doesn’t need to play that many minutes for the Bucks to be successful. He’s played 33.5 minutes or less in each of his past seven games, which caps his upside on a night-to-night basis.
Giannis is also in a subpar spot tonight vs. the Spurs. The Bucks are implied for just 113.5 points on the road, which is a significant decrease from their season average (117.5). If you are going to play Giannis, you’re better off doing it on DraftKings given his Bargain Rating of 93%.
Value
Taurean Prince has had a disappointing season, but he offers very little downside today at just $4,400 on DraftKings. He’s scored at least 21.75 DraftKings points in four of his past five games and is coming off 29.0 minutes in his most recent contest. He’s currently projected for 27.8 minutes in our NBA Models, and that should be enough for him to pay off his reduced price tag in an excellent matchup.
Fast Break
P.J. Tucker is maybe the least exciting player to roster in NBA DFS. He very rarely puts up a big stat line – he’s averaged just 0.63 DraftKings points per minute this season – but its hard to find someone with a comparable workload at just $3,800 on DraftKings.
Kenrich Williams was limited to just 28.5 minutes in his last game, but that didn’t stop him from scoring 33.0 FanDuel points vs. the Toronto Raptors. He has a much friendlier matchup today vs. the Hawks, and he should see a few additional minutes if the game stays competitive. He’s also one of the better pure values at the position on FanDuel given his Bargain Rating of 70%.
Power Forward
Stud
Julius Randle was a bit of a disappointment in his last game, scoring just 37.75 DraftKings points in 32.4 minutes. He’s averaged 1.33 DraftKings points per minute with Holiday, Davis, and Nikola Mirotic off the court this season, so he can definitely improve in today’s matchup vs. the Hawks.
Credit: Russ Isabella-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: New Orleans Pelicans center Julius Randle (30).
It’s a strong matchup, evidenced by an Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.97, and his $8,500 salary on DraftKings comes with a Bargain Rating of 83%.
Value
Dario Saric isn’t playing a ton of minutes at the moment, but he’s still been a strong option recently. He’s coming off 26.7 FanDuel points in just 19.2 minutes in his last game, and he’s in an excellent spot today vs. the New York Knicks. Karl-Anthony Towns is also questionable after leaving yesterday’s game early with an injury, and Saric would undoubtedly see a few additional minutes if he’s inactive.
Fast Break
Draymond Green is priced at just $5,800 on DraftKings, which is as cheap as he’s been all season. It results in a Bargain Rating of 95% in an elite matchup vs. the Suns. They rank 29th in defensive efficiency and dead last in team rebound rate, giving Green tremendous upside. The only real question is if the Suns can keep this game competitive: they’re currently listed as 16-point underdogs.
Center
Stud
As usual, the center position is loaded with strong plays on today’s slate. One of the top options is Clint Capela, who has started to turn things around recently. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in back-to-back games on DraftKings, and he could’ve had a bigger performance in his last contest if it stayed more competitive.
He should continue to dominate the center minutes for the Rockets with Kenneth Faried sidelined and has averaged 1.15 DraftKings points per minute this season. Capela is underpriced at just $7,000 on DraftKings, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 93%.
Value
Alex Len has started each of the past two games in place of the injured Dewayne Dedmon, and he’s posted a positive Plus/Minus on FanDuel in each contest. That said, he was one of the highest owned players on yesterday’s slate, and he underperformed his FantasyLabs’ projection by more than 10 points. Basically, he’s left a lot of people feeling disappointed with his recent play.
Still, he’s seen consistent minutes with Dedmon out of the lineup and has averaged 1.06 FanDuel points per minute this season. He should be able to improve upon his recent numbers if he draws another start, and he’ll likely command lower ownership after yesterday’s performance. It’s hard not to go back to the well with him on FanDuel given his Bargain Rating of 98%.
Fast Break
DeMarcus Cousins is worth a look today if you like the Suns’ chances of keeping today’s game vs. the Warriors close. He has the best matchup at the position, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.41 on DraftKings, and his $7,900 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 93%.
Karl-Anthony Towns is an interesting option for GPPs if he’s active. He’s been an elite producer recently, scoring at least 67.0 DraftKings points in five of his past seven games, and he’ll likely see reduced ownership if he’s active. He’s one of the best pure values of the day on DraftKings given his Bargain Rating of 98%.
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NBA news feed.
Pictured: Hawks PG Trae Young
Photo Credit: Jason Getz-USA TODAY Sports
