The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Monday features a nine-game slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.
Russell Westbrook has been an awesome fantasy value recently, posting an average Plus/Minus of +7.11 over his past 10 games on DraftKings. He’s also increased his production to 1.71 DraftKings points per minute over the past month and has posted a 100% Consistency Rating over that time frame.
Unfortunately, Westbrook is in a mediocre spot against the Trail Blazers, who have been solid defensively against opposing PGs this season, giving Westbrook an Opponent Plus/Minus of just +0.48 on DraftKings. That said, Westbrook is basically matchup proof, and he managed to score 67.0 DraftKings points in his most recent contest against the Blazers.
Westbrook is a better value today on DraftKings, where his $11,400 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 86%.
Patrick Beverley is one of the best values at the position on FanDuel, where his $5,100 salary results in a Bargain Rating of 85%. He’s averaged a strong 0.88 FanDuel points per minute over the past month and is currently projected for 30.5 minutes in our NBA Models. He’s scored at least 25.5 FanDuel points in each of his past three games, including 37.3 in his most recent contest.
Dennis Smith Jr. is going to get a lot of opportunities with the Knicks, and he’s responded by scoring at least 34.8 FanDuel points in each of his past three games. He has an excellent matchup against the Cavaliers, who have been the worst team in the league in terms of defensive efficiency by a significant margin.
The Raptors are going to be a bit thin at the PG position. Fred VanVleet is doubtful with a thumb injury, Delon Wright was traded to the Grizzlies and the newly-acquired Jeremy Lin won’t be available to make his team debut. That leaves Kyle Lowry to handle the majority of the minutes at the position in a decent matchup against the Nets.
The Raptors are currently implied for 118.5 points, which is the second-highest mark on the slate.
James Harden has come back to reality recently, posting a negative Plus/Minus in each of his past two games. He’s also dealing with a shoulder injury that appeared to bother him during Saturday’s loss to the Thunder. That will likely result in reduced ownership against the Mavericks, which makes him an interesting target for guaranteed prize pools (GPPs).
Harden still posted a usage rate of 46.0% and scored 42 points in his most recent contest, but his fantasy numbers were dragged down by an unusually low combination of assists and rebounds. He still possesses one of the highest ceilings on the slate.
The Wizards will be without Tomas Satoransky against the Pistons, and Chasson Randle will replace him in the starting lineup. He’s priced at the absolute minimum on FanDuel, which makes him an appealing punt play at the SG position. He’s averaged 0.70 FanDuel points per minute over the past month and is currently projected for 28.5 minutes.
Tim Hardaway Jr. is coming off 34.0 DraftKings points in his most recent contest, yet his salary has actually decreased by $100 for Monday’s matchup against the Rockets. He’s currently priced at $5,000 on DraftKings, giving him a Bargain Rating of 89%. He provides a nice combination of floor and ceiling at his current price tag.
The Cavaliers remain pretty thin in the backcourt, and Jordan Clarkson continues to look like an excellent value on DraftKings. He’s averaged 0.99 DraftKings points per minute this season and has played at least 31 minutes in each of his past two games, and he has an excellent matchup against the Knicks.
No one on the slate has averaged more fantasy points per minute over the past month than Giannis Antetokounmpo. He’s averaged 1.84 DraftKings points per minute and has unsurprisingly posted a 100% Consistency Rating over that time frame.
He’s in a potential smash spot against the Bulls, who rank 24th in defensive efficiency, and the Bucks’ implied team total of 120.5 ranks first on the slate. The only real concern is the blowout factor, as the Bucks are currently 11-point favorites despite playing on the road (see live odds here).
As good as Giannis has been, Paul George has arguably been even better.
George has posted a 100% Consistency Rating over the past month and has averaged a Plus/Minus of +9.18 over his past 10 games on DraftKings. George and Westbrook have found a way to coexist on offense so that each is capable of putting up big fantasy performances on the same night. He leads the position with 13 Pro Trends on DraftKings, where his $10,300 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 97%.
Jabari Parker has found new life with the Wizards. He’s scored at least 40.0 FanDuel points in each of his first two games with the team and is coming off 34.5 minutes in his most recent contest. He’s comically underpriced at $3,900 on FanDuel, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 99%.
Danilo Gallinari is still working his way back from injury, but he has the potential to be a big time fantasy contributor with Tobias Harris now in Philadelphia. He scored 39.0 DraftKings points in just 29.5 minutes in his most recent contest, and his playing time only figures to increase moving forward. He’s an excellent target at $6,000 on DraftKings given his Bargain Rating of 93%.
Mario Hezonja entered the starting lineup in the Knicks last game and has somewhat quietly been a nice source of value recently. He’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +7.61 over his past 10 games on DraftKings and remains affordable across the industry in a great matchup against the Cavs.
Blake Griffin is one of the best targets of the day on FanDuel. He’s seen a price decrease of $900 over the past month, and his current $9,000 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 85%. He offers very little downside at that price tag given his average of 45.6 FanDuel points per game over the past month.
Griffin is also in an elite spot against the Wizards. They’ve been poor both defensively and on the glass this season, ranking 26th in defensive efficiency and 29th in team rebound rate. That’s a great combination for opposing big men, and Griffin leads the position with 13 Pro Trends on FanDuel.
The Cavaliers will be without Cedi Osman for the fourth straight contest, and Larry Nance Jr. should continue to reap the benefits. He’s been fantastic over his past three games, averaging 40.25 DraftKings points, and he’s coming off approximately 38.5 minutes of playing time in his most recent contest. That number will likely come down a bit with Kevin Love back in the lineup, but Love played just six minutes in his first game back from injury. It seems unlikely that they push him much harder today.
Marvin Williams exploded for 36.25 DraftKings points in his last game and has been a solid source of production for most of the past two weeks. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in four of his past five games and has seen at least 33 minutes of playing time in each of those contests. He remains priced at a discount on DraftKings, where his $4,500 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 93%.
Serge Ibaka definitely figures to see less playing time after the addition of Marc Gasol, but that might not matter against the Nets. They’ve been one of the worst teams in the league this season against opposing centers, giving Ibaka an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.30 on FanDuel.
He scored 37.6 FanDuel points in just 29 minutes in his last game, so he doesn’t necessarily need to play big minutes to have a big impact.
The center spot is loaded on this slate, but Karl-Anthony Towns stands out as the clear top option. He’s been a nice value over his past 10 games, posting an average Plus/Minus of +3.59 on DraftKings, yet his salary has actually decreased by -$600 over that time frame. He’s in one of the best spots of the day against the Clippers, who have been destroyed by opposing centers all season.
Towns owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.03 on DraftKings, which is the top mark at the position.
Andrew Wiggins is also questionable to suit up, and Towns would see one of the biggest boosts in value in his absence. He leads the team with a usage rate differential of +5.5% with Wiggins off the court since trading away Jimmy Butler, so he would have massive upside if Wiggins is unable to suit up.
Ivica Zubac didn’t wait long to make an impact for his new team, scoring 29.8 FanDuel points in his first game with the Clippers. He’s averaged 1.13 FanDuel points per minute this season, so he doesn’t need a lot of playing time to pay off his $3,900 salary.
Paul Millsap is currently questionable for the Nuggets after being “very limited” at practice on Sunday. If he were to sit, Mason Plumlee would be an appealing option at $5,900 on FanDuel. He’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +6.17 over his past 10 games, and his current price tag comes with a Bargain Rating of 82%.
Andre Drummond has increased his fantasy production to 1.42 DraftKings points per minute over the past month and benefits from the same elite matchup as Griffin. Drummond is also priced at a massive discount on DraftKings, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 98%.
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NBA news feed.
Pictured: Pistons PF Blake Griffin
Photo Credit: Kelvin Kuo-USA TODAY Sports