The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Wednesday features a 10-game slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.
Point Guard
Stud
It’s hard to argue for anyone other than Ben Simmons as the top point guard option on today’s slate. He’s taken on a massive workload since the injury to Joel Embiid, logging at least 40 minutes in each of his past three games. He’s scored at least 50.75 DraftKings points in all three of those contests, which is not surprising given his average of 1.29 DraftKings points per minute this season.
Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Philadelphia 76ers guard Ben Simmons (25).
Simmons is in a wonderful spot today vs. the Chicago Bulls, who rank 25th in defensive efficiency. The 76ers’ implied team total of 117.5 points ranks fifth on the slate, and Simmons owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.35 on DraftKings. He’s underpriced at just $8,900.
Value
Derrick White has been an excellent value over his past three games on DraftKings, posting an average Plus/Minus of +14.70. He could potentially see a few additional minutes today with Jakob Poeltl out of the lineup, and he’s in an elite matchup vs. the Atlanta Hawks.
They’ve played at the fastest pace in the league this season, and the Spurs’ resulting implied team total of 120.75 is the top mark on the slate. He’s one of the best pure values at the position on DraftKings given his Bargain Rating of 97%.
Fast Break
Did the Celtics finally turn things around yesterday vs. the Warriors? Who knows. One thing that is certain is that Kyrie Irving is underpriced on FanDuel, where his $9,400 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 82%. He’s in an excellent spot vs. the Sacramento Kings given his Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.20, and the Celtics’ implied team total of 115.5 represents a solid increase compared to their season average (112.2).
Rajon Rondo remains criminally underpriced at $6,000 on DraftKings. He’s scored at least 48.0 DraftKings points in three of his past four games and should see a boost in minutes with Kyle Kuzma out of the lineup. Brandon Ingram and Lance Stephenson are also questionable, and their absences would make Rondo almost a must play.
Shooting Guard
Stud
Devin Booker hasn’t exactly excelled from a fantasy perspective recently, posting an average Plus/Minus of just +0.18 over his past 10 games on FanDuel, but there have been some encouraging signs recently. He’s played at least 39 minutes in each of his past two games, and he’s currently projected for 37.5 minutes in our NBA Models. Booker has historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.41 on FanDuel with a comparable playing time projection (per the Trends tool).
He’s also in a wonderful spot tonight vs. the New York Knicks. They rank just 27th in defensive efficiency this season, and the Suns’ implied team total of 115.0 represents a massive increase when compared to their season average (106.6). This is an excellent opportunity to buy low on a talented scorer.
Value
Jeremy Lamb is an excellent value on DraftKings, where his $5,200 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 98%. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in five of his past six games, and he’s scored at least 32.75 DraftKings points in three of his past four. He’s in an underrated spot today vs. the Miami Heat, who rank just 24th in defensive efficiency over the past two months.
Credit: Jeremy Brevard-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Charlotte Hornets guard Jeremy Lamb (3).
Fast Break
Nicolas Batum is another member of the Hornets who deserves some attention on today’s slate. He’s played huge minutes recently, logging at least 37 in each of his past six games, and he’s scored at least 35.0 DraftKings points in four of them. He’s a particularly nice value on DraftKings, where his $5,300 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 95%.
Jalen Brunson has shooting guard eligibility on DraftKings, which increases his appeal on today’s slate. He’s been a strong producer over the past month, averaging 0.83 DraftKings points per minute, and he’s posted a Consistency Rating of 90% over that time frame. He’s underpriced at $3,800 in an elite spot vs. the Washington Wizards.
Small Forward
Stud
The Lakers’ season is almost certainly a lost cause at this point, but don’t expect LeBron James to throw in the towel. He’s been playing massive minutes recently, culminating with 42.5 in his last game vs. the Clippers.
Credit: Brad Rempel-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: LeBron James
LeBron is also going to be asked to carry a ridiculous workload without Kuzma and potentially Ingram. He’s seen a usage bump of +4.4% with both players and Lonzo Ball off the court this season. He leads the position with 12 Pro Trends on DraftKings, where his $11,300 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 97%. He has a difficult matchup vs. the Nuggets, but it’s impossible to ignore LeBron playing huge minutes for a shorthanded squad.
Value
Davis Bertans is one of the most logical candidates to replace Poeltl in the Spurs’ starting lineup tonight. That would make him an appealing punt play on FanDuel, where he’s priced at the absolute minimum. He’s averaged 0.76 FanDuel points per minute this season, so he can do some damage with increased playing time.
Fast Break
Gordon Hayward exploded for 50.75 DraftKings points yesterday vs. the Warriors, and he remains extremely affordable across the industry. He’s a nice spot today vs. the Kings and has averaged 0.98 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. Very few players in this price range can match his upside.
The small forward position seems like a good one to save some money at on today’s slate. Mikal Bridges has been a strong value recently, posting a positive Plus/Minus in each of his past five games. He’s priced at just $3,800 on DraftKings, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 93%, and is in an excellent spot vs. the Knicks.
Power Forward
Stud
LaMarcus Aldridge has seen a nice workload recently, averaging 36.5 minutes over his past four games, and he has the potential to see even more minutes on today’s slate. He’s the only center on the Spurs’ roster for tonight’s contest vs. the Hawks, which is also a really appealing matchup.
They’ve struggled against opposing big men all season, giving Aldridge an Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.73 on DraftKings. He’s priced very reasonably across the industry and can match virtually anyone on the slate in terms of upside.
Value
The Mavericks are another team with an appealing matchup today. They’re taking on the Washington Wizards, who rank just 26th in defensive efficiency and 29th in team rebound rate this season. They may also be without Maxi Kleber, who is currently questionable with an injury.
That puts Dwight Powell and Dirk Nowitzki in strong spots. Powell has been an elite option for the Mavs recently, posting a positive Plus/Minus in six straight games on FanDuel. He’s also displayed his upside over that time frame, going for 51.6 FanDuel points vs. the Los Angeles Clippers.
Adam Hunger-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Dallas Mavericks forward Dirk Nowitzki (41), forward Dwight Powell (7).
Nowitzki doesn’t possess that kind of ceiling, but he might be the better pure value at just $3,300 on DraftKings. He’s averaged 0.83 DraftKings points per minute over the past month and has played at least 23 minutes in three of his past five games.
Fast Break
Kevin Love remains priced at a discount on DraftKings, where his $7,500 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 89%. He’s played approximately 28 minutes in each of his past three games and has scored at least 36.5 DraftKings points in each of those contests. It’s possible he could see a slight bump in playing time today vs. the Nets, who have given up big games in bunches to opposing big men this season.
Sticking with the Cavs, Larry Nance Jr. should see a healthy amount of playing time with Tristan Thompson and Ante Zizic out of the lineup. He played 32 minutes in their last game without both players and responded with 26.4 FanDuel points. He benefits from the same elite matchup as Love, and his $5,600 salary on FanDuel comes with a Bargain Rating of 91%.
Center
Stud
Karl-Anthony Towns has been unstoppable recently. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in each of his past five games on DraftKings, and he’s eclipsed 67 fantasy points in four of those contests. He’s taken on a larger usage rate recently, posting a mark of 43.6% or greater in two of his past three games, but has maintained his elite efficiency numbers from the field and 3-point range. He leads the position with 12 Pro trends on DraftKings and owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.66 vs. the Detroit Pistons.
Value
Tyson Chandler will miss today’s contest for the Los Angeles Lakers, which should result in a few additional minutes for JaVale McGee. He’s been excellent when given a chance this season, averaging 1.17 DraftKings points per minute, and he’s priced at just $3,700 on DraftKings. It’s hard not to like him at that price point, even in a difficult matchup vs. the Nuggets.
Fast Break
Alex Len bombed badly in his last start, scoring just 9.5 DraftKings points vs. the Miami Heat, but will get a chance to redeem himself today vs. the Spurs. The Hawks will likely be without Dewayne Dedmon, which means that Len will likely remain in the starting lineup even with John Collins back in the lineup.
Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Atlanta Hawks center Alex Len (25).
Len has an elite ceiling for his price tag – he’s scored at least 46.0 DraftKings points two of his past three games — and he could command reduced ownership after Monday’s debacle. He’s tough to fade on FanDuel, where his $4,100 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 92%.
Rudy Gobert had a nice game vs. the Pelicans in his last contest, scoring 48.25 DraftKings points, and he gets the same matchup on today’s slate. He’s underpriced on DraftKings at $8,100, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 99%.
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NBA news feed.
Pictured: LeBron James (23)
Photo Credit: Robert Hanashiro-USA TODAY Sports
