The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Wednesday features a large 12-game slate starting at 7:00 pm ET.
Point Guard
Stud
John Wall has been very poor this season, averaging a -3.26 FanDuel Plus/Minus through six games and hitting value in just two of them:
His scoring is down — he’s had no more than 20 points in each of his last four games — but the real problem has been his turnovers: He’s averaging 4.3 per game early in the season. That said, he’s back home after a four-game road trip, and a date with the Phoenix Suns is exactly what the doctor ordered. The Suns rank second in pace this season, averaging 108.3 possessions per game, and 22nd in defensive efficiency, allowing 106.8 points per 100 possessions. From a fantasy perspective, they’ve been incredibly generous to PGs this year, as evidenced by Wall’s +9.45 Opponent Plus/Minus. He leads all PGs on the slate with 1.21 FanDuel points per minute and is in play in all formats tonight.
Values
Jarrett Jack is about as unsexy a play as you’ll find, but he’s $4,700 on DraftKings and projected to start and play 30-plus minutes for the Knicks. He’s hit value in three straight games and brings a relatively safe floor given his peripheral stats: He’s dished out 19 assists over the past two games. He has a solid matchup against a Houston squad that has been generous to opposing PGs so far, allowing them to score 3.14 points over salary-based expectations. He likely lacks a top-end ceiling, but he’s worth looking at in cash games; his +4.04 Projected Plus/Minus is the second-highest mark among PGs today.
On FanDuel, Patrick Beverley remains cheap at $5,700 and comes with a 75 percent Bargain Rating and eight Pro Trends. He’s struggled over the past three games, although those include tough matchups against the Warriors (in which they were blown out 141-113) and Pistons. He should be back in his normal range of about 35 minutes, and he has a nice matchup against a Dallas Mavericks team that has been awful defensively this season, ranking 29th in efficiency and allowing 110.5 points per 100 possessions. This is a pace-down spot, but Bev is too cheap not to consider.
Fast Break
The early-season storylines were all about the Boston Celtics, but things have quieted down since. Don’t look now, but Kyrie Irving and company have won five straight, even in tough matchups against the Spurs and Bucks. Irving has been excellent in that stretch, going for 43-plus FanDuel points in each of his last three. He’s posted a usage rate of 29.0 percent and an assist rate of 30.8 percent with his new squad, and he has a nice matchup against a terrible Kings team that ranks 24th in defense and got destroyed by the Pacers last night.
Mike James roasted the Nets last night, putting up 46.1 FanDuel points in 29.1 minutes. He’s had to share the workload this season, but he could get more action as the hot hand tonight against the Wizards.
Shooting Guard
Studs
James Harden is the highest-priced option by nearly $3,000 on FanDuel, and DFS players may not want to pay up for him given his lackluster fantasy performances this season:
That makes him especially intriguing in tournaments; his 68.7-point projected ceiling leads all options by at least eight points. He’s historically smashed the Knicks, averaging 62.03 fantasy points per game and a +14.30 Plus/Minus on 100 percent Consistency in six games since 2014. And he’s also played well in Madison Square Garden. The Rockets are perhaps surprisingly only 5.5-point favorites, so it’s likely Harden will have to play his full minute load.
Value
The Nuggets have been disappointing this year, but Gary Harris has been a solid fantasy asset over the last four games, all of them on the road. He’s playing 35 minutes per game, and the Nuggets are slight 1.5-point favorites at home against the Raptors tonight. In similar games over the past two seasons, Harris has averaged 26.93 DraftKings points and a 70 percent Consistency Rating. At his low $5,400 salary tonight, he needs just 25 to hit value. That’ll play, especially against a Toronto squad that has allowed opposing SGs to score 3.17 points over salary-based expectations this season.
Fast Break
It’s hard to look past Bradley Beal given his matchup against the Suns, who are fantasy-friendly for the reasons discussed in the Wall section. Beal is especially valuable on FanDuel, where his $7,200 salary comes with a 75 percent Bargain Rating and 10 Pro Trends. It’s hard to fathom exactly how bad Phoenix has been against SGs this season: Beal has a high Opponent Plus/Minus of +12.16 today. Devin Booker remains one of the worst wing defenders in the league, and Beal should have no issue roasting him:
Victor Oladipo has come back to earth over the last two games, scoring only 24.8 and 28.3 FanDuel points, but he could ascend again tonight against the Cavaliers, who have allowed opposing SGs to score 9.36 points above expectations.
Small Forward
Studs
LeBron James has been all over the place this year:
That said, this isn’t a confusing situation. When LeBron has been without Derrick Rose and Dwyane Wade, he’s been unstoppable; with them, he’s been terrible:
- With Rose and Wade: 0.95 DraftKings points per minute, 22.3 percent usage, 23.5 percent assist rate
- Without Rose and Wade: 1.50 DraftKings points per minute, 32.7 percent usage, 59.1 percent assist rate
Those guys are likely to play tonight, which is bad for LeBron. That said, he has a great matchup against a Pacers team that has hemorrhaged points to SFs, as evidenced by LeBron’s 8.03 FanDuel Opponent Plus/Minus. LeBron could be a divisive player in today’s slate.
Values
There are certainly positive signs with Rodney Hood moving forward. Although he’s been up and down with an injury and has averaged a -1.26 DraftKings Plus/Minus this season, he’s played between 28.5 and 35.5 minutes in each of his last three. In those games, Hood has averaged a 27.4 percent usage rate and 61.8 percent true shooting. He’s been shooting the ball well on fine volume, but the issue is that he hasn’t developed into the ball-handler the Jazz expected after Gordon Hayward left. In the past three games, Hood has averaged just 0.82 fantasy points per minute, largely thanks to his low 10.2 percent assist rate and 4.1 percent rebound rate. He has the game to up those marks drastically, and it might be wise to be early on the trend when it happens. Either way, he’s only $5,200 going against Portland.
Fast Break
Giannis Antetokounmpo is on the second leg of a back-to-back and just played a brutal game against the wing defenders of the Oklahoma City Thunder. Today he faces the Charlotte Hornets and excellent defender Michael Kidd-Gilchrist. He’s also the highest-priced player on either site at $12,000 on DraftKings and $12,600 on FanDuel. All that said, he has been the best player in the NBA so far and has averaged a ridiculous 1.58 fantasy points per minute. He’s always in play.
Pretty much everyone for the Grizzlies is injured or questionable to play, including studs Mike Conley and Marc Gasol. If they miss tonight’s game, it could turn into the Tyreke Evans show: In 9.3 minutes per game through seven games without those two players on the court this season, Evans has posted a team-high 36.9 percent usage rate.
Power Forward
Stud
Anthony Davis is the highest-priced PF on FanDuel by $2,100; he’s worth every penny:
Today he has an intriguing matchup. He’s facing the Minnesota Timberwolves, who hypothetically should be excellent defensively with Jimmy Butler and Karl-Anthony Towns under the tutelage of Tom Thibodeau. In actuality, it’s been ugly: They rank dead last this season with a 113.3 Defensive Rating. Opposing PFs have scored 5.28 FanDuel points over salary-based expectations, and they obviously don’t face a PF like Brow very often. With DeMarcus Cousins taking up Towns’ attention, Davis will be matched up against 32-year-old Taj Gibson.
Values
Finding a value PF isn’t easy today; some of the guys with the highest Projected Plus/Minus values are ones who probably won’t approach 30 minutes. You’ll likely have to take some risks in GPPs, perhaps on someone like Dragan Bender. He rarely got time with Earl Watson and the old Phoenix coaching staff, but he seems to have the leg up over fellow big man Marquese Chriss now that interim head coach Jay Triano has taken over. Bender has played 26.4 and 28.0 minutes over the last two games, responding with 20-plus DraftKings points in each. He’s almost the dead minimum at $3,400.
Fast Break
If Gasol is out for the Grizzlies, it would devastate their defense. That would bode well for Magic PF Aaron Gordon, who has averaged a 25.0 percent usage rate and 39.15 DraftKings points per game. He’s led the team with 1.29 fantasy points per minute, and he should see 35-plus in this one; the Magic are currently 3.5-point road dogs.
People will likely balk at the price tag of rookie Ben Simmons, who is now $9,200 on FanDuel. He’s been worth it, however, averaging a ridiculous 1.24 fantasy points per minute this season. This seems unfair:
One more quick hit: Otto Porter is questionable with an illness. If he’s unable to go, it bumps up the value of Mike Scott and Kelly Oubre.
Center
Stud
Joel Embiid played only 25 minutes last game but showed what he can do even during that short time, scoring 46.3 FanDuel points against the Houston Rockets on the road. He should probably get a couple more minutes than that tonight, and he has a stellar matchup against the Hawks, who have allowed opposing centers to score an unreal 16.11 FanDuel points over salary-based expectations this year. Embiid has been his typically-efficient self this season, averaging 1.43 fantasy points per minute, and he’s historically been dominant at home in positive matchups:
Value
Ryan Anderson has continued to exhibit his odd home/away splits; here are his marks over the last two seasons:
He’s in New York tonight, and while a matchup against the taller PF Kristaps Porzingis seems like a bad individual matchup, that hasn’t been the case this season: Opposing PFs have scored 6.73 DraftKings points over salary-based expectations. Ryno will likely be low-owned in tournaments given the big slate.
Fast Break
DeMarcus Cousins easily has the potential to be the slate’s highest-scoring player, and he’s averaged a +10.68 DraftKings Plus/Minus on 86 percent Consistency this season. He’s first among all players with 1.70 fantasy points per minute, and he leads the Pelicans in minutes (37.2) and usage rate (34.5). Further, he faces the Wolves, who rank dead last in defensive efficiency, allowing 113.3 points/100. They’re 23rd in rebound rate, too. What more could you want?
Good luck!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NBA news feed:
