The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Thursday features a three-game slate starting at 8 p.m. ET.
Point Guard
Stud
The Warriors lost DeMarcus Cousins in their last game, possibly for the rest of the postseason. That should result in a larger workload for Steph Curry. He’s seen a usage bump of +5.5% with Cousins off the court since he returned to the lineup on January 18, resulting in an average of 1.48 DraftKings points per minute. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in each of his first two postseason games – including 72.75 DraftKings in Game 1 of this series – and the Warriors’ implied team total of 121.75 ranks first on tonight’s slate. Curry is underpriced at just $9,100 on DraftKings given his Bargain Rating of 97%.
Value
Spencer Dinwiddie remains one of the best pure values at the position on FanDuel, where his $4,900 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 92%. He was limited to just 23.6 minutes in his last game – which the Nets ultimately lost by 22 points – but he did play 32.3 minutes in Game 1. He’s averaged 0.95 FanDuel points per minute this season, so he can do a lot of damage if he sees close to 30 minutes on today’s slate.
Fast Break
Ben Simmons is priced at just $7,700 on DraftKings, resulting in a position-high Bargain Rating of 99%. He also leads the position with 13 Pro Trends. He’s coming off a triple-double in his last outing, finishing with 55.0 DraftKings points.
Derrick White has posted a positive Plus/Minus in each of his first two games vs. the Denver Nuggets, and he remains affordable across the industry. He’s averaged 0.90 DraftKings points per minute this season and is currently projected for 31 minutes in our NBA Models.
Shooting Guard
Stud
D’Angelo Russell has failed to return value in each of his first two games vs. the 76ers, which has caused his salary to decrease to just $8,000 on FanDuel. It results in a Bargain Rating of 90%, which makes him an excellent buy-low candidate on today’s slate. He’s averaged 1.36 FanDuel points per minute over the past month, resulting in an average of 42.7 FanDuel points per game. He also leads the position with 12 Pro Trends.
Value
The Warriors really didn’t need much from Andre Iguodala during the regular season, so they chose to keep him behind glass and break him out only in case of emergency. That’s paid dividends early in the postseason. He’s played at least 25 minutes in each of his first two games, resulting in an average of 29.25 FanDuel points per game. He should continue to see an increased presence with Cousins out of the lineup, and his $4,200 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 90%.
Fast Break
Klay Thompson has been a disaster recently, posting an average Plus/Minus of -5.82 over his past 10 games. That said, his salary has decreased by $1,200 over that time frame, and his current $5,900 mark comes with a Bargain Rating of 83%. He always has big upside when his shot his falling, but he has considerable downside as well. He’s best suited for guaranteed prize pools (GPPs).
Lou Williams has posted a positive Plus/Minus in each of his first two games of the Clippers’ current series, averaging 52.38 DraftKings points per game. He’s seen a big price jump on FanDuel, but his $7,400 salary on DraftKings comes with a Bargain Rating of 97%. He has 10 Pro Trends, which is tied with Curry, Russell and DeMar DeRozan for the most at the SG position.
Small Forward
Stud
Kevin Durant is another member of the Warriors who should get a boost with Cousins out of the lineup. He’s seen a usage bump of +2.7% without Boogie this season, and he’s averaged 1.24 DraftKings points per minute in that situation. He’s priced at just $8,400 on DraftKings, which is crazy low for Durant: He’s historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +1.83 with a comparable salary (per the Trends tool). He leads all players on today’s slate with 14 Pro Trends and should be a staple of cash-game and GPP lineups.
Value
Rudy Gay has yet to return value in his series with the Nuggets, but better games should come soon. He’s averaged 1.04 FanDuel points per minute this season, and he’s coming off more than 28 minutes in his last game. He’s underpriced at $4,900 given his Bargain Rating of 88%.
Fast Break
Landry Shamet is coming off a big game in his last outing, including knocking down the game-winning 3-pointer to cap a 31-point comeback:
LANDRY SHAMET WINS IT.
The Clippers complete a 31-point comeback in Oakland to tie the series up. (via @nba) pic.twitter.com/gIrrRTpW96
— SLAM (@SLAMonline) April 16, 2019
He’s been a strong value over his past 10 games, posting an average Plus/Minus of +3.26 on DraftKings, and his $3,800 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 93%.
No one at the SF position has been better on a per-minute basis than Danilo Gallinari recently. He’s averaged 1.32 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and he’s currently projected for 32 minutes in our NBA Models. He’s an elite option at just $6,900 on DraftKings.
Power Forward
Stud
Tobias Harris has struggled so far this postseason, posting a negative Plus/Minus in each of his first two games. That said, he still has a positive outlook given the injury to Joel Embiid, who has been limited through the 76ers’ past two games and is currently questionable for tonight’s contest. Harris has seen a usage bump of +2.1% with Embiid off the court since joining the 76ers, resulting in an average of 1.02 DraftKings points per minute. He’s averaged 31.3 DraftKings points per game over the past month, which makes him a strong value at just $6,100.
Value
Kevon Looney has the best individual matchup at the position, resulting in an average Plus/Minus of +3.49 on DraftKings. He’s averaged 1.08 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and he should see a few additional minutes with Cousins out of the lineup. He played 19.5 minutes in the Warriors’ last game and responded with a Plus/Minus of +11.35 on DraftKings.
Fast Break
Montrezl Harrell has been a huge source of value over his past three games. He’s scored at least 41.0 DraftKings points in each contest, resulting in an average Plus/Minus of +14.56. He should continue to thrive in this matchup – he owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.24 – and his $6,300 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 98%.
Ed Davis’ minutes have been volatile over the past two games. He played 25.1 minutes in the first game, resulting in 34.2 FanDuel points, but just 5.5 minutes in Game 2. He could be worth some exposure in GPPs on FanDuel, where his $3,700 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 91%.
Center
Stud
Joel Embiid is impossible to trust right now, which limits the number of appealing options at the center position.
Nikola Jokic is really the only viable alternative to Embiid in the high-priced tier. He’s coming off 39.4 minutes in his most recent contest, and he’s averaged 1.49 FanDuel points per minute this season. He has the highest upside at the center position on today’s slate.
Value
Andrew Bogut started the second half of the Warriors’ last game in place of Cousins, which means he’ll likely draw the start today. The Clippers are an elite matchup, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.22 on FanDuel, and he’s averaged 1.17 FanDuel points per minute over the past month. He’s an appealing value option on FanDuel, where his $4,500 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 70%.
Fast Break
If Embiid is unable to play today, Boban Marjanovic will become the chalk option at the center position. He should have some value even if Embiid is active. He’s scored at least 27.9 FanDuel points in each of his first two games this series, and he’s averaged a stout 1.35 FanDuel points per minute over the past month. He doesn’t need to play much to have a huge fantasy impact.
Jarrett Allen has averaged 1.04 DraftKings points per minute this season, and he’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in three of his past four games. He’s intriguing at just $4,300 on DraftKings given his Bargain Rating of 92%.
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NBA news feed.
Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-USA Today Sports
