DraftKings’ main slate for Wednesday features the first 14 games of the night. The NBA Player Models are the base of our NBA product here at FantasyLabs. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends and On/Off tool, Vegas Dashboard, and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models for NBA DFS, going position by position, looking at guys with some of the best projections and players standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
You can also use our SimLabs Lineup Generator, a tool that creates the most user-friendly lineup generation process.
Note: Projections, Ownership projections, and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day as news comes out after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
NBA DFS Point Guard Picks
Top Ceiling: Cade Cunningham at Chicago Bulls – $10,400
Cunningham has topped 50 DraftKings points in two of his three matchups with the Bulls this season, and he has exceeded 50 DraftKings points in seven of his past eight starts. Cunningham has been handling a massive role recently, and that workload is going to continue until Jaden Ivey (leg) returns.
With the shooting guard off the floor this season, Cunningham scores 1.5 DraftKings PPM with a 34.6% usage rate and a 44.3% assist percentage. The Bulls rank third in pace and 26th in defensive efficiency, and in this terrific spot, the Pistons carry a huge 121.25-point implied team total. When playing behind an implied team total of at least 115 points this season, Cunningham has been a stud with 56 DraftKings PPG (13 games), via the Trends Tool.
Top Value: Moses Moody at Dallas Mavericks – $4,100
If Moody remains a starter for the Warriors tonight, he will be a great punt play. Moody entered the starting lineup Monday vs. the Bucks and finished with 26.25 DraftKings points across 32 minutes in the 14-point win for Golden State. Moody is scoring 0.8 DraftKings PPM this season, and he has now topped 20 DraftKings points in seven of his past 12 games.
Our ShotQuality projections are forecasting Moody for 30 minutes tonight, and with this type of volume, Moody should easily surpass five times value against this depleted Mavericks team that ranks third-to-last in defensive rating over their last 10 games.
Don’t forget to check out our NBA SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
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NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks
Top Ceiling: Anthony Edwards vs. Milwaukee Bucks – $9,500
Edwards (hip) is questionable tonight, but he feels likely to suit up with the Timberwolves favored by 6.5 points, and if that is the case, he will bring one of the highest ceilings on the slate. With Julius Randle (groin) sidelined, Edwards has been a man on a mission, scoring 62 DraftKings PPG in his last three starts. With Randle off the court this season, Edwards’ usage rises 3.4 percentage points to 35.7%, and he provides 1.3 DraftKings PPM, via the On/Off Tool.
As for his matchup, Giannis Antetokounmpo (calf) remains out for the Bucks, and with the superstar sidelined for the last five, Milwaukee has ranked 21st in defensive rating. In this spot and on his home floor, Edwards has the potential for over 60 DraftKings points if he is active as expected.
Top Value: Max Christie vs. Golden State Warriors – $5,000
Christie is vastly underpriced for his newfound role with the Mavericks. Since coming over in the Luka Doncic for Anthony Davis trade, Christie has surpassed 30 DraftKings in each of his first four games with Dallas, while ranking second on the team in playing time at 32.3 minutes per game—which ranks second only to Kyrie Irving—despite coming off the bench.
Christie has finished all four of these games with the Mavericks’ starters, and last, but not least, he has handled a strong 19.4% usage rate. Christie is scoring 1.0 DraftKings PPM in Dallas and is a safe bet for over 30 DraftKings points, regardless of this matchup with the Warriors, who rank ninth in defensive efficiency this season.
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NBA DFS Small Forward Picks
Top Ceiling: Trey Murphy vs. Sacramento Kings – $8,200
Murphy continues to be way too cheap for his massive role with the Pelicans. Since the start of the new year, Murphy is leading New Orleans with 44.75 DraftKings points in 36.9 minutes per game while handling a 25.1% usage rate. With Brandon Ingram now with the Raptors and Dejounte Murray (Achilles) out for the season, Murphy is going to maintain this mammoth workload for the rest of the season, and on the menu for Wednesday night is a great matchup against a Kings team that ranks 25th in defensive rating over their last 10 games.
Murphy should have been priced near $9,000 tonight and is an elite spend for all formats. Also, do note that CJ McCollum (personal) is questionable, and if the veteran sits, Murphy will become an even better option. With McCollum, Ingram, and Murray off the floor this season, Murphy’s usage increases to 28%.
Top Value: Nick Smith at Orlando Magic – $4,500
While Smith is in a tough spot against a Magic defense that ranks second in efficiency, his price tag by no means reflects his current role with the Hornets. In his last five, Smith is scoring 29.6 DraftKings points in 34.6 minutes per game.
With LaMelo Ball (ankle), Brandon Miller (wrist), and Mark Williams (not with team) all inactive tonight, Smith will continue to see a huge workload, and with that immense volume, he should have no issues outproducing this low salary, regardless of this poor matchup vs. Orlando. In our ShotQuality projections, Smith is the No. 1 small forward value on the slate.
NBA DFS Power Forward Picks
Top Ceiling: Jayson Tatum vs. San Antonio Spurs – $9,900
Jaylen Brown (questionable, knee) is one of the most important names to monitor for this huge slate and if the All-Star sits, Tatum will be unlocked as one of the best targets on the board. With Brown inactive this season, Tatum is generating 52.3 DraftKings PPG with a 34.5% usage rate, which is a 3.8 percentage point lift from his average, via the On/Off Tool.
With this being the Celtics’ final game before the All-Star break, giving Brown the night off and an extra day of rest makes sense for the defending champions. The Spurs rank 23rd in defensive efficiency, and if Brown is absent, Tatum will bring a ceiling north of 60 DraftKings points.
Top Value: Bol Bol at Houston Rockets – $4,300
Last night, Bol started over Royce O’Neale, and Bol erupted for 52.5 DraftKings points across 30 minutes vs. the Grizzlies with a 26.4% usage rate. The former lottery has now scored 24.75, 40.75, and 52.5 DraftKings points in his last three games, which directly correlates with Bradley Beal (toe) missing all these games.
The shooting guard will remain out Wednesday, and if Bol continues to start, he will be a must-play at this cheap salary. With Beal off the court this season, Bol is producing 1.2 DraftKings PPM. In our ShotQuality projections, Bol is the No. 1 value for this massive 14-game slate.
NBA DFS Center Picks
Top Ceiling: Domantas Sabonis at New Orleans Pelicans – $9,500
Sabonis has recorded 51 and 46.75 DraftKings points in his past two starts and is in a perfect spot to go off Wednesday. The Pelicans have been the ultimate matchup for centers all season, as they rank 28th in defensive efficiency, second in points in the paint allowed, and third in rebounds allowed. Sabonis has already faced New Orleans twice this season, and he thrived in those matchups with 67 and 51 DraftKings points.
This game carries the third-highest total on the slate (238.5 points), and it is expected to be competitive from start to finish with the Kings only favored by five points. Sabonis has triple-double upside in this compelling setting and is a player you need to have exposure to.
Top Value: Thomas Bryant at Washington Wizards – $5,000
Bryant is a difficult fade with Myles Turner (neck) sidelined. The center got hurt five minutes into last Thursday’s tilt vs. the Clippers and then missed the next two contests. With Turner essentially inactive for the last three, Bryant has operated as the Pacers’ starting center, and he has supplied 33.8 DraftKings points in 28 minutes per game with the role.
Bryant is amassing 1.1 DraftKings PPM with a 17.9% usage rate this season, and this is a gorgeous matchup vs. the Wizards, who rank fourth in pace and second-to-last in defensive efficiency. Indiana boasts the highest implied team total of this 14-game slate (126 points), and Turner has 40 DraftKings point upside in this perfect situation.
