For the NBA’s first full night of basketball following the All-Star break, there is a nine-game slate to attack Thursday. The NBA Player Models are the base of our NBA product here at FantasyLabs. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends and On/Off tool, Vegas Dashboard, and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models for NBA DFS, going position by position, looking at guys with some of the best projections and players standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
You can also use our SimLabs Lineup Generator, a tool that creates the most user-friendly lineup generation process.
Note: Projections, Ownership projections, and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day as news comes out after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
NBA DFS Point Guard Picks
Top Ceiling: Tyrese Haliburton vs. Memphis Grizzlies – $8,000
This Pacers vs. Grizzlies matchup carries the highest total the NBA has seen this season at an eye-popping 250.5 points, and Haliburton should flourish in this up-tempo setting. Memphis leads the league in pace, while Indiana ranks seventh. This contest is going to produce some huge fantasy scores, and Haliburton should be one of the largest outputs. Plus, he may get overlooked with his recent game log being lackluster by his standards.
The guard is scoring 1.2 DraftKings PPM with a 21.8% usage rate and a 35.9% assist percentage this season, and in totals of 240 points or more, Haliburton is amassing 40.5 DraftKings PPG (five games), via the Trends Tool.
Top Value: Chris Paul vs. Phoenix Suns – $5,300
Paul’s salary has hit a season low just in time for this meeting against his former team, the Suns, who are a very friendly matchup. Phoenix ranks 27th in defensive efficiency this season, and most importantly, Victor Wembanyama (shoulder) is unfortunately out for the season. The budding superstar is handling a huge 31.5% usage rate this season and with Wembanyama missing, Paul is going to handle a much larger role for the rest of the year.
Attributed to a 5.3 percentage point bump to his usage rate, Paul scores 1.2 DraftKings PPM with Wembanyama off the floor this season, via the On/Off Tool. Paul is averaging 35.7 DraftKings PPG with Wembanyama inactive this season (six games) and Paul is easily the No. 1 guard value on the slate in our ShotQuality projections.
Don’t forget to check out our NBA SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
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NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks
Top Ceiling: Jamal Murray vs. Charlotte Hornets – $8,100
Murray closed the first half of the season in dramatic fashion last Wednesday, erupting for a season-high 74 DraftKings points vs. the Trail Blazers. This wasn’t the first sign of the guard rounding into form either, as Murray’s explosion against Portland is the sixth time in his last 10 starts that he has scored at least 42 DraftKings points. Murray is generating 1.12 DraftKings PPM with a 25.3% usage rate in the new year and hosting a Hornets team that is playing their second game in two nights after a hard-fought win over the Lakers last night; the Nuggets present the fourth-highest total on the slate tonight (122.25 points).
Murray is averaging 44.25 DraftKings PPG when playing behind an implied team total of at least 120 points this season (12 games) and is the best lucrative target to attack at shooting guard.
Top Value: Anfernee Simons vs. Los Angeles Lakers – $6,500
Simons has recorded at least 34 DraftKings points in six of his last seven starts, and this is an appealing spot for him against the new-look Lakers. Los Angeles ranks second in pace with Luka Doncic available for their last three games, and the Lakers are on the second leg of a back-to-back after losing to the Hornets last night. Simons posted 38.25 DraftKings points when he faced Los Angeles last month and is handling a 25.2% usage rate this season, resulting in 1.0 DraftKings PPM for the guard.
Simons is a strong target no matter what, but he will become an even better option if Jerami Grant (questionable, knee) or Scoot Henderson (questionable, ankle) sit for the Trail Blazers, as their absences would translate into extra usage for Simons.
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NBA DFS Small Forward Picks
Top Ceiling: Franz Wagner at Atlanta Hawks – $8,600
As he attempts to keep the Magic alive for a playoff spot, Wagner has been excellent with at least 43 DraftKings points in six of his past 10 starts. Included in this run is a 54.75 DraftKings point performance against the same Hawks team Wagner will face tonight. Atlanta ranks second in pace this season, compared to the Magic, who rank dead last. This massive pace increase is terrific for Wagner, and another outing over 50 DraftKings points is possible for him tonight.
Since returning from an extended absence due to an oblique injury last month, Wagner is leading Orlando with 1.3 DraftKings PPM and a huge 35.1% usage rate.
Top Value: Bennedict Mauthrin vs. Memphis Grizzlies – $5,100
Mathurin is an appealing, cheap way to gain another piece of this season-high total between the Pacers and Grizzlies (250.5 points). Mathurin has come off the bench for the last two games, but he has essentially been a starter with over 30 minutes in each contest. With this large role, Mathurin has recorded 30.25 DraftKings points vs. the Knicks and 40.75 DraftKings points vs. the Wizards.
Mauthrin is scoring 0.9 DraftKings PPM with a 22.7% usage rate this season, and with around 30 minutes tonight in this elite setting, he brings a ceiling near 40 DraftKings points, which is terrific relative to his affordable salary.
NBA DFS Power Forward Picks
Top Ceiling: Jayson Tatum at Philadelphia 76ers – $10,000
The Celtics will have their starting five all healthy tonight, but Tatum still has a huge ceiling worth chasing in GPPs. The superstar has faced the 76ers twice already this season, and Tatum scored over 60 DraftKings points in both of these matchups with the division rival. The forward is supplying 1.4 DraftKings PPM with a 30% usage rate this season, and tonight’s game being on the road bodes well for Tatum.
The Celtics naturally find themselves in more competitive games on the road, and Tatum is scoring 52.3 DraftKings PPG away from Boston this season, which is nearly 5.0 DraftKings PPG better than his average at home.
Top Value: Trendon Watford vs. Cleveland Cavaliers – $4,000
Watford has been a great spark off the bench for the Nets and is underpriced for his recent form. With over 20 minutes in three straight games, Watford is averaging 25.9 DraftKings PPG during this stretch. With Ben Simmons now with the Clippers and Cam Thomas (hamstring) still out, Watford should continue to see 20+ minutes for the Nets tonight and surpass five times value.
With both Simmons and Thomas off the floor this season, Watford is scoring 1.0 DraftKings PPM with a 24.6% usage rate.
NBA DFS Center Picks
Top Ceiling: Joel Embiid vs. Boston Celtics – $9,900
Embiid should never be priced under $10,000 and must be on your radar tonight, regardless of this subpar matchup with the Celtics, who rank fifth in defensive efficiency. The center posted 52 DraftKings points across a season-high 38 minutes vs. the Raptors in his final start before the All-Star Break, and Embiid has not been listed on the 76ers’ injury report tonight. This is an extremely rare and strong indicator that the former MVP is the healthiest he has been all season.
Embiid is leading the NBA with a 36.7% usage rate this season and scoring 1.5 DraftKings PPM. The big man should top 50 DraftKings points on his home floor tonight and is an excellent high-end value.
Top Value: Donovan Clingan vs. Los Angeles Lakers – $5,700
With Deandre Ayton (calf) out at least four weeks, Clingan should put up strong numbers on a regular basis. With Ayton inactive for the Trail Blazers’ final game before the All-Star break, Clingan started at center and posted a double-double of 52 DraftKings points across 31 minutes vs. the Nuggets. Robert Williams (knee) also missed this game and is questionable for tonight, but even if Williams plays, Clingan should see around 25 minutes of work, especially with Williams nursing an injury.
Clingan is scoring 1.2 DraftKings PPM this season, and he has a ceiling above 40 DraftKings against this Lakers team that ranks second in pace with Doncic at the helm and severely lacks strong interior defenders with Anthony Davis now with the Mavericks. For the 11 occasions Clingan has seen over 20 minutes this season, he is averaging 30.5 DraftKings PPG.
