The NBA Player Models are the lifeblood of our NBA product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends and On/Off tool, Vegas Dashboard, and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models for NBA DFS going position by position, looking at guys with some of the highest ceiling projections and players standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Note: Projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day as news comes out after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
Top Ceiling: Luka Doncic vs. Utah Jazz – $12,000 DraftKings, $12,000 FanDuel
There are several great pay-up options on this eight-game slate, but Luka Doncic is arguably the best simply due to his matchup against the Jazz. Priced at $12,000 on both DraftKings and FanDuel, Doncic has averaged 38.3 points per game over his last three games. He leads the league in scoring while shooting over 50% from the field for the first time in his career, even with the addition of Kyrie Irving, the Mavericks lean on Doncic.
After a fantastic start, the Jazz continue to slip in the Western Conference standings. Their defense has gotten worse as they now rank 24th in Defensive Rating while allowing 117.2 points per game. In his lone game against the Jazz, Doncic scored 33 points and had 11 assists as he shot 12 of 20 from the field. Playing at home, Doncic averages over four more points per game. All the stars are aligning for a great performance.
You can check out Luka and many other players who are showing up in our new PrizePicks and Underdog Fantasy simulations tool:
Top Value: Tyus Jones at Los Angeles Lakers – $4,900 DraftKings, $7,500 FanDuel
For the second-straight game, Tyus Jones remains super cheap on DraftKings and overpriced on FanDuel. With Ja Morant away from the team, the Grizzlies are fortunate to have a backup point guard as good as Jones. He has historically been one of the best assist-to-turnover ratios in the league. In 10 games without Morant this season, Jones is averaging 19.4 points, 8.1 assists, and over 40 DraftKings points per game while shooting 53.1% from the field.
Jones is also coming off a career-high 60.8 DraftKings points last game, where he stuffed the stat sheet with 25 points, 12 assists, and five steals. Now he will get the luxury of playing against the Lakers, who rank second in Pace (102.3), entering tonight’s games. The Lakers are allowing 117.6 points per game, which ranks as the sixth-highest in the league. Prioritize Jones on DraftKings, where he has the highest Projected Plus/Minus on the slate.
Top Ceiling: Anthony Edwards vs. Philadelphia 76ers – $9,600 DraftKings, $8,900 FanDuel
Winners of three consecutive games, the Timberwolves have climbed to the No. 6 seed in the Western Conference in large part due to All-Star Anthony Edwards. Most of his production comes from scoring the ball, but Edwards has become an incredible defender. Over his last six games, Edwards is averaging 3.8 blocks and steals per game. That defensive upside helps tremendously on FanDuel, where he already has a 97% Bargain Rating.
The 76ers are coming into this game after a 147-143 barnburner victory last night against the Pacers in a non-overtime game. They rested Tobias Harris and P.J. Tucker, so don’t be surprised if Joel Embiid sits out this back-to-back. If there is no Embiid in the paint, this spot is way more interesting for Edwards. The 76ers rank eighth in defensive rating, but Edwards can fill it up against anyone and has been thriving as the Timberwolves star.
Edwards’ points, rebounds, and assists projection on Underdog Fantasy is worth a look if you have a strong lean.
Top Value: Desmond Bane at Los Angeles Lakers – $7,700 DraftKings, $8,200 FanDuel
Desmond Bane could compete with Anthony Edwards as the top ceiling shooting guard, but he also has the third-highest Projected Plus/Minus on FanDuel and the fifth-highest on DraftKings. Bane scored 30 points last game while accumulating six assists and four rebounds. The Grizzlies will get Dillon Brooks back after serving a one-game suspension, but without Ja Morant, Bane is option one for this explosive Grizzlies offense moving forward.
In his third year in the league, Bane is averaging a career-high in points, rebounds, assists, and field goal percentage. In six games without Morant this season, Bane’s usage rate and points per game jumps nearly four per game while he is shooting 51.4% from the field and 51.2% from behind the arc. The Lakers have allowed 36.9 3-pointers attempted per game, which ranks as the fifth-highest in the league.
Bane has 10 Pro Trends on FanDuel, which is the second-highest on the slate.
Top Ceiling: Lauri Markkanen at Dallas Mavericks – $9,600 DraftKings, $8,600 FanDuel
Lauri Markkanen is another ceiling player who is significantly underpriced on FanDuel at $8,600. Currently leading in Most Improved Player voting, Markkanen is averaging a career-high 25.2 points per game while shooting 51.1% from the field and 40.6% from behind the arc. With so many Jazz players getting traded at the deadline, they have given all of the reigns to Markkanen in hopes he can get this young team into the play-in tournament.
In his last five games, Markkanen has four double-doubles while averaging 29.4 points and nine rebounds per game. He will get a great rebounding matchup tonight against the Mavericks, who rank 29th in Rebounding Percentage (47.5%) paving the way for another potential double-double. The Mavericks rank below averaging in points allowed in the paint, but Markkanen can cook from all over the court.
Being $1,000 cheaper on FanDuel, Markkanen has a 98% Bargain Rating.
Top Value: Josh Green vs. Utah Jazz – $3,900 DraftKings, $4,500 FanDuel
Josh Green has the highest Projected Plus/Minus at the small forward position on DraftKings and the second-highest on FanDuel at the shooting guard position. The playing time for Green has really started to rump up recently, even though most of the usage is still going to Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving. Projected to play 32 minutes tonight, Green is one of the best salary savers on the slate, and that is critical with so many pay-up options to choose from.
Green has only attempted 5.9 field goals per game, but he has made each one of them count by shooting 54.5% from the field and 41.9% from behind the arc. He has displayed 30-point DraftKings upside in the past and can easily reach that in this matchup against the Jazz. The Mavericks are 8.5-point favorites, implied for 122.5 points, which is the second-highest on the slate.
There is more than enough scoring to go around in this game.
Top Ceiling: Giannis Antetokounmpo at Orlando Magic – $12,400 DraftKings, $12,200 FanDuel
Giannis Antetokounmpo is the most expensive player on both DraftKings and FanDuel and has the highest ceiling in our NBA Model. The Bucks may be playing without Jrue Holiday, who is listed as questionable. Make sure to monitor his status as Giannis gets a significant boost without Holiday on the floor. Giannis continues to lead the league in usage rate while ranking in the top five in both points and rebounds and shooting 53.8% from the field.
The Bucks beat the Magic at home last Wednesday by 22 points and are seven-point road favorites tonight. In his two games against the Magic this season, Giannis is averaging 32.5 points and 10 rebounds per game while shooting an absurd 62.9% from the field. They have no one that can guard Giannis, regardless of how well they have defended the paint.
Giannis has a very high ceiling regardless if Holiday is able to suit up or not.
Editors note: Giannis (illness) has been ruled out Tuesday.
Top Value: Xavier Tillman at Los Angeles Lakers – $5,400 DraftKings, $5,700 FanDuel
Xavier Tillman is the third Grizzlies value player worth getting exposure to on this eight-game slate. With Ja Morant, Brandon Clarke, and Steven Adams off the floor, Tillman has logged the most minutes of anyone on the team. Since being in the starting lineup, Tillman has seen his playing time skyrocket. In his 13 games as the Grizzlies starting center, Tillman is averaging 9.2 points and 6.8 rebounds across 28.4 minutes per game while shooting 59.6% from the field.
The Lakers have allowed 52.2 points per game in the paint this season, which ranks as the eighth-highest in the league. They also are middle of the pack in rebounding but take a major hit with LeBron James off the floor. Tillman has recorded a double-double in two of his last four games, so we know the upside is there. Prioritize Tillman on FanDuel, where he has the highest projected Plus/Minus on the slate, and by far the highest projected ownership.
Top Ceiling: Anthony Davis vs. Memphis Grizzlies – $10,800 DraftKings, $11,500 FanDuel
With LeBron James sidelined, Anthony Davis has a chance to propel the Lakers into a great position to reach the postseason. In 12 games without James, Davis is averaging 29.6 points, 14.6 rebounds, and 57.5 DraftKings points per game while shooting 52.3% from the field and having a 34.6% usage rate. He has the highest ceiling over Joel Embiid despite being much cheaper on both sites and not playing on a back-to-back.
Davis played against the Grizzlies last Tuesday and put up a massive double-double with 28 points, 19 rebounds, and five blocks. He has scored over 60 DraftKings points in three of his last four games, as this is a sneaky good matchup for him without Steven Adams. Since Adams has been out in late January, the Grizzlies rank 28th in Rebounding Percentage.
Another double-double performance is on the table for Davis in this juicy matchup.
Top Value: Mitchell Robinson vs. Charlotte Hornets – $4,900 DraftKings, $6,600 FanDuel
Since returning from injury, Mitchell Robinson has been a major weapon for the Knicks. Over his last six games, Robinson has five double-doubles and one absolute dud of a game against the Heat, who are the best interior defense in the league. In those five boom games, Robinson recorded a positive Plus/Minus in each of them while averaging 11.4 points and 12.4 rebounds per game while shooting a near-perfect 26 of 30 from the field.
The Hornets are one of the best matchups for an opposing center. They rank 24th in rebounding percentage, 22nd in points allowed in the paint, and last in blocks allowed with a league-high 5.9 per game. That is right in the wheelhouse for Robinson, who is averaging a career-high in rebounds and has double-double upside. The Knicks are double-digit home favorites and have won nine consecutive games.
Robinson will feast in this matchup.